Savage Arena · at Toledo · Conference game
Closing line
BGSU -1.5✓ TOL covered by 2.5
BGSU -1.5✓ TOL covered by 2.5Closing total155.5Under by 10.5
| BGSU | This season | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| 10-6 | Record | 8-9 |
| 8-8 | ATS | 9-8 |
| 6-10 | O/U | 8-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BGSU 79–78 TOL · ✗ BGSU (51%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BGSU | 38 | 34 | 72 |
| TOL | 39 | 34 | 73 |
1st half: BGSU 38, TOL 39 (TOL by 1). The model had BGSU by 0.3 and a total of 73.3 (actual 77).
Team stats
| BGSU | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-55 53% | Field goals | 27-67 40% |
| 6-17 35% | 3-pointers | 8-25 32% |
| 8-12 67% | Free throws | 11-12 92% |
| 39 10 off | Rebounds | 29 11 off |
| 14 | Assists | 12 |
| 6 | Steals | 6 |
| 2 | Blocks | 7 |
| 16 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 13 | Fast-break points | 18 |
Players
| BGSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Towns F | 40 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 5-7 | 1-2 |
| Javontae Campbell G | 40 | 29 | 6 | 8 | 12-20 | 2-5 |
| Javon Ruffin G | 32 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2-5 | 2-3 |
| Troy Glover II F | 24 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Mayar Wol F | 22 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3-8 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Josiah Shackelford G | 23 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3-9 | 0-4 |
| Aiden Goins F | 12 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Justin Thomas G | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Camden Karel F | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Christian Dedivanaj, Makhi Leach, Jason Kimbrough, Alijah Adem, Preston Squire, Mohamed Maxamud, Jaxon Pardon, Greg Spurgin
| TOL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Wilson G | 39 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 3-12 | 1-4 |
| Sean Craig F | 34 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 4-10 | 3-5 |
| Kyler Vanderjagt G | 33 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 4-12 | 2-7 |
| Leroy Blyden Jr. G | 31 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 8-17 | 2-8 |
| Austin Parks C | 30 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 4-8 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylan Ouwinga F | 16 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Mynor Strong G | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Will James Jr. G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Phoenix Glassnor, Toby Nwokolo, London Praytor, Tyler Ode, Chris Riddle
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketBGSU -1.5
ModelBGSU -0.2
Model edgeTOL +1.3
W TOL covered
Total
Market155.5
Model156.7
Model edgeOver 1.2
L Under
Projected score
BGSU 78.5 · TOL 78.2
BGSU 72 · TOL 73
Win probability
BGSU 51%
1st half
Spread
BGSU -0.3
TOL -1.0
Total
73.3
77 points
Projected score
BGSU 36.8 · TOL 36.5
BGSU 38 · TOL 39
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBGSU -1.5
no move
CloseBGSU -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open158.5
▼ 3
Close155.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
BGSU -120 · TOL +100
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BGSU -1.5 · unchangedmodel BGSU -0
model BGSU -0
Opened 158.5 · closed 155.5 · moved 3 downmodel 156.5
model 156.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BGSU | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| TOL | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
BGSU 2–6 TOLTOL leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · BGSU 3-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2024-25 | BGSU 69 @ TOL 68 | TOL -7.5 | BGSU W |
| Jan 24, 2024-25 | TOL 84 @ BGSU 71 | BGSU +2.5 | TOL W |
| Feb 23, 2023-24 | TOL 68 @ BGSU 76 | BGSU +4.5 | BGSU W |
| Jan 27, 2023-24 | BGSU 72 @ TOL 88 | TOL -6.5 | TOL W |
| Feb 18, 2022-23 | TOL 91 @ BGSU 86 | BGSU +10.5 | BGSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Bowling Green
16 games played
Straight up
10-6
63% wins
Against the spread
8-8
50% covers · avg +3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-10
38% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs TXST | W 83-48 | -5.5 | W +29.5 | 146.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 9 | vs LEM | W 83-60 | -11.5 | W +11.5 | 154.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 15 | @ DAV | L 87-91 | +4.5 | W +0.5 | 144.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 19 | vs W&M | L 74-82 | -8.5 | L −16.5 | 167.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs BUCK | W 71-66 | -10.5 | L −5.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 26 | vs VMI | W 81-48 | -11.5 | W +21.5 | 148.5 | U 129 |
| Dec 1 | @ KSU | W 82-66 | +12.5 | W +28.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 6 | vs UVU | L 71-82 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 144.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 16 | vs CHST | W 76-55 | -21.5 | L −0.5 | 148.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 20 | @ OHIO | W 68-58 | -1.5 | W +8.5 | 153.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 30 | vs M-OH | L 83-93 | -6.5 | L −16.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Jan 3 | @ MASS | W 101-100 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | O 201 |
| Jan 6 | @ KENT | L 93-96 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | O 189 |
| Jan 9 | vs AKR | L 67-77 | +4.5 | L −5.5 | 163.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | vs EMU | W 85-79 | -11.5 | L −5.5 | 141.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 20 | @ WMU | W 72-54 | -6.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | U 126 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsTXST
TXSTW 83-48
+29.5
9
vsLEM
LEMW 83-60
+11.5
15
@DAV
DAVL 87-91
+0.5
19
vsW&M
W&ML 74-82
−16.5
24
vsBUCK
BUCKW 71-66
−5.5
26
vsVMI
VMIW 81-48
+21.5
1
@KSU
KSUW 82-66
+28.5
6
vsUVU
UVUL 71-82
−9.5
16
vsCHST
CHSTW 76-55
−0.5
20
@OHIO
OHIOW 68-58
+8.5
30
vsM-OH
M-OHL 83-93
−16.5
3
@MASS
MASSW 101-100
−0.5
6
@KENT
KENTL 93-96
+0.5
9
vsAKR
AKRL 67-77
−5.5
17
vsEMU
EMUW 85-79
−5.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 72-54
+11.5
covered 8didn’t cover 8avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsTXST
TXSTW 83-48
−15.5
9
vsLEM
LEMW 83-60
−11.5
15
@DAV
DAVL 87-91
+33.5
19
vsW&M
W&ML 74-82
−11.5
24
vsBUCK
BUCKW 71-66
−7.5
26
vsVMI
VMIW 81-48
−19.5
1
@KSU
KSUW 82-66
−11.5
6
vsUVU
UVUL 71-82
+8.5
16
vsCHST
CHSTW 76-55
−17.5
20
@OHIO
OHIOW 68-58
−27.5
30
vsM-OH
M-OHL 83-93
+25.5
3
@MASS
MASSW 101-100
+48.5
6
@KENT
KENTL 93-96
+33.5
9
vsAKR
AKRL 67-77
−19.5
17
vsEMU
EMUW 85-79
+22.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 72-54
−26.5
over 6under 10avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Toledo
17 games played
Straight up
8-9
47% wins
Against the spread
9-8
53% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-9
47% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USA | L 74-76 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 8 | vs MRSH | L 73-85 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 11 | @ WRST | W 81-71 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 159.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 15 | vs DETM | W 90-83 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 19 | vs YSU | W 92-75 | -1.5 | W +15.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 24 | vs TROY | W 75-68 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs BEL | L 72-87 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 6 | @ OAK | L 97-98 | +4.5 | W +3.5 | 166.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 13 | @ RMU | L 70-75 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 16 | @ MSU | L 69-92 | +23.5 | W +0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 30 | vsWMU | W 84-79 | -10.5 | L −5.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 3 | @ CMU | W 78-75 | -7.5 | L −4.5 | 158.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 6 | @ NIU | W 75-61 | -7.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 9 | vsM-OH | L 73-87 | -1.5 | L −15.5 | 166.5 | U 160 |
| Jan 13 | vsOHIO | W 101-85 | -2.5 | W +13.5 | 161.5 | O 186 |
| Jan 16 | @KENT | L 84-87 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 168.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 20 | @MASS | L 82-84 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 164.5 | O 166 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−4.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−14.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
+15.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
−3.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+15.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
+9.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−10.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+3.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−6.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+0.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
−5.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 78-75
−4.5
6
@NIU
NIUW 75-61
+6.5
9
vsM-OH
M-OHL 73-87
−15.5
13
vsOHIO
OHIOW 101-85
+13.5
16
@KENT
KENTL 84-87
+2.5
20
@MASS
MASSL 82-84
+0.5
covered 9didn’t cover 8avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−0.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−2.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
−7.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
+13.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+6.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
−16.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−4.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+28.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−9.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+10.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
+2.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 78-75
−5.5
6
@NIU
NIUW 75-61
−25.5
9
vsM-OH
M-OHL 73-87
−6.5
13
vsOHIO
OHIOW 101-85
+24.5
16
@KENT
KENTL 84-87
+2.5
20
@MASS
MASSL 82-84
+1.5
over 8under 9avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Bowling Green
10-6 overall · 4-3 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ W Michigan72–54
- Wvs E Michigan85–79
- Lvs Akron67–77
- L@ Kent State93–96
- W@ UMass101–100
4 days since their last game.
Toledo
8-9 overall · 4-3 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ UMass82–84
- L@ Kent State84–87
- Wvs Ohio101–85
- Lvs Miami OH73–87
- W@ N Illinois75–61
4 days since their last game.