NIU Convocation Center · at N Illinois · Conference game
Closing line
TOL -7.5✓ TOL covered by 6.5
TOL -7.5✓ TOL covered by 6.5Closing total161.5Under by 25.5
| TOL | This season | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | Record | 3-9 |
| 5-7 | ATS | 6-6 |
| 5-7 | O/U | 4-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TOL 83–76 NIU · ✓ TOL (74%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 37 | 38 | 75 |
| NIU | 25 | 36 | 61 |
1st half: TOL 37, NIU 25 (TOL by 12). The model had TOL by 4.5 and a total of 74.2 (actual 62).
Team stats
| TOL | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-58 50% | Field goals | 22-56 39% |
| 5-12 42% | 3-pointers | 10-29 34% |
| 12-19 63% | Free throws | 7-11 64% |
| 31 8 off | Rebounds | 37 12 off |
| 15 | Assists | 13 |
| 12 | Steals | 7 |
| 4 | Blocks | 4 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 21 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 20 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| TOL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Wilson G | 37 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 7-16 | 2-2 |
| Sean Craig F | 36 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 5-9 | 0-2 |
| Leroy Blyden Jr. G | 35 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 3-10 | 0-3 |
| Kyler Vanderjagt G | 31 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 5-6 | 2-2 |
| Austin Parks C | 29 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6-10 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Mynor Strong G | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Jaylan Ouwinga F | 12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Will James Jr. G | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: London Praytor, Phoenix Glassnor, Toby Nwokolo, Tyler Ode, Chris Riddle
| NIU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taj Walters G | 36 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Dylan Ducommun G | 34 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 6-15 | 4-10 |
| Makhai Valentine G | 33 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 3-10 | 3-7 |
| Gustav Winther F | 21 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 4-7 | 1-1 |
| Daemar Kelly G | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Gianni Cobb G | 24 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2-8 | 0-2 |
| Hassan Washington F | 21 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Carlos Coronado G | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Jao Ituka G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Max Laskey, Isaiah Stewart, Ladji Kante, Isaiah Washington, Jaylen Wharton, Lataevyon Taylor, JJ Taylor
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTOL -7.5
ModelTOL -7.3
Model edgeNIU +0.2
L TOL covered
Total
Market161.5
Model158.5
Model edgeUnder 3.0
W Under
Projected score
TOL 82.9 · NIU 75.6
TOL 75 · NIU 61
Win probability
TOL 74%
1st half
Spread
TOL -4.5
TOL -12.0
Total
74.2
62 points
Projected score
TOL 39.4 · NIU 34.9
TOL 37 · NIU 25
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTOL -6.5
1 → TOL
CloseTOL -7.5
1 pt toward TOL
Total
Open156.5
▲ 5
Close161.5
Up 5 since the open
Moneyline
TOL -355 · NIU +280
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TOL -6.5 · closed TOL -7.5 · moved 1 toward TOLmodel TOL -7.5 matches the line
model TOL -7.5 = line ✓
Opened 156.5 · closed 161.5 · moved 5 upmodel 158.5
model 158.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| NIU | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% | 2-8 20% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
TOL 5–1 NIUTOL leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · TOL 4-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | NIU 85 @ TOL 89 | TOL -13.5 | NIU W |
| Feb 27, 2023-24 | NIU 75 @ TOL 72 | TOL -16.5 | NIU W |
| Jan 23, 2023-24 | TOL 89 @ NIU 73 | NIU +5.5 | TOL W |
| Jan 14, 2022-23 | TOL 84 @ NIU 67 | NIU +12.5 | TOL W |
| Feb 12, 2021-22 | TOL 100 @ NIU 72 | NIU +12.5 | TOL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Toledo
12 games played
Straight up
6-6
50% wins
Against the spread
5-7
42% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-7
42% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USA | L 74-76 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 8 | vs MRSH | L 73-85 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 11 | @ WRST | W 81-71 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 159.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 15 | vs DETM | W 90-83 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 19 | vs YSU | W 92-75 | -1.5 | W +15.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 24 | vs TROY | W 75-68 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs BEL | L 72-87 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 6 | @ OAK | L 97-98 | +4.5 | W +3.5 | 166.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 13 | @ RMU | L 70-75 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 16 | @ MSU | L 69-92 | +23.5 | W +0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 30 | vs WMU | W 84-79 | -10.5 | L −5.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 3 | @ CMU | W 78-75 | -7.5 | L −4.5 | 158.5 | U 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−4.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−14.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
+15.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
−3.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+15.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
+9.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−10.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+3.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−6.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+0.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
−5.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 78-75
−4.5
covered 5didn’t cover 7avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−0.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−2.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
−7.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
+13.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+6.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
−16.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−4.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+28.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−9.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+10.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
+2.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 78-75
−5.5
over 5under 7avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
N Illinois
12 games played
Straight up
3-9
25% wins
Against the spread
6-6
50% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-8
33% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs ULM | W 102-82 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 147.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 7 | @ WIS | L 72-97 | +28.5 | W +3.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 10 | @ GCU | L 59-88 | +22.5 | L −6.5 | 163.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 18 | @ UNI | L 57-70 | +19.5 | W +6.5 | 146.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 21 | @ LUC | W 76-59 | +13.5 | W +30.5 | 148.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 25 | @ APSU | L 59-77 | +6.5 | L −11.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 2 | vs LIN | L 64-99 | -3.5 | L −38.5 | 147.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 6 | @ BRAD | L 55-84 | +18.5 | L −10.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 13 | @ ELON | L 79-85 | +11.5 | W +5.5 | 156.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 20 | vsCMU | W 74-73 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 31 | vs BUF | L 67-81 | +6.5 | L −7.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 3 | @ KENT | L 73-77 | +16.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | U 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsULM
ULMW 102-82
+12.5
7
@WIS
WISL 72-97
+3.5
10
@GCU
GCUL 59-88
−6.5
18
@UNI
UNIL 57-70
+6.5
21
@LUC
LUCW 76-59
+30.5
25
@APSU
APSUL 59-77
−11.5
2
vsLIN
LINL 64-99
−38.5
6
@BRAD
BRADL 55-84
−10.5
13
@ELON
ELONL 79-85
+5.5
20
vsCMU
CMUW 74-73
−1.5
31
vsBUF
BUFL 67-81
−7.5
3
@KENT
KENTL 73-77
+12.5
covered 6didn’t cover 6avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsULM
ULMW 102-82
+36.5
7
@WIS
WISL 72-97
+11.5
10
@GCU
GCUL 59-88
−16.5
18
@UNI
UNIL 57-70
−19.5
21
@LUC
LUCW 76-59
−13.5
25
@APSU
APSUL 59-77
−11.5
2
vsLIN
LINL 64-99
+15.5
6
@BRAD
BRADL 55-84
−7.5
13
@ELON
ELONL 79-85
+7.5
20
vsCMU
CMUW 74-73
−2.5
31
vsBUF
BUFL 67-81
−4.5
3
@KENT
KENTL 73-77
−7.5
over 4under 8avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Toledo
6-6 overall · 2-0 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ C Michigan78–75
- Wvs W Michigan84–79
- L@ Michigan St69–92
- L@ Robert Morris70–75
- L@ Oakland97–98
3 days since their last game.
N Illinois
3-9 overall · 1-2 in conference · Horizon League
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Kent State73–77
- Lvs Buffalo67–81
- Wvs C Michigan74–73
- L@ Elon79–85
- L@ Bradley55–84
3 days since their last game.