Spectrum Center · Neutral site
Closing line
UVA -5.5✓ UVA covered by 7.5
UVA -5.5✓ UVA covered by 7.5Closing total147.5Over by 11.5
 DAY | This season | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | Record | 7-1 |
| 5-4 | ATS | 5-3 |
| 4-5 | O/U | 4-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: DAY 73–78 UVA · ✓ UVA (66%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAY | 33 | 40 | 73 |
| UVA | 37 | 49 | 86 |
1st half: DAY 33, UVA 37 (UVA by 4). The model had UVA by 2.6 and a total of 70.5 (actual 70).
Team stats
| DAY | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-64 39% | Field goals | 27-45 60% |
| 7-23 30% | 3-pointers | 12-20 60% |
| 16-22 73% | Free throws | 20-27 74% |
| 25 9 off | Rebounds | 41 6 off |
| 11 | Assists | 21 |
| 11 | Steals | 6 |
| 2 | Blocks | 4 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 21 |
| 21 | Fouls | 20 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 18 |
Players
| DAY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Bennett G | 36 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 8-22 | 2-6 |
| De'Shayne Montgomery G | 33 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 5-12 | 0-4 |
| Jordan Derkack G | 27 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-3 |
| Keonte Jones G | 24 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
| Amal L'Etang F | 20 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jacob Conner F | 18 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jaiun Simon F | 17 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3-5 | 2-2 |
| Bryce Heard G | 16 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Malcolm Thomas F | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Adam Njie, Damon Friery, Jaron McKie, Makai Grant, Will Maxwell, Evan Dickey
| UVA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thijs De Ridder F | 28 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 3-9 | 0-3 |
| Johann Grunloh C | 26 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Sam Lewis G | 24 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Dallin Hall G | 22 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Malik Thomas G | 13 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chance Mallory G | 25 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Devin Tillis F | 24 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 2-4 | 2-2 |
| Jacari White G | 24 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 9-9 | 7-7 |
| Ugonna Onyenso C | 14 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Carter Lang, Owen Odom, Martin Carrere, Elijah Gertrude, Desmond Roberts, Silas Barksdale
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUVA -5.5
ModelUVA -4.6
Model edgeDAY +0.9
L UVA covered
Total
Market147.5
Model150.5
Model edgeOver 3.0
W Over
Projected score
DAY 72.9 · UVA 77.5
DAY 73 · UVA 86
Win probability
UVA 66%
1st half
Spread
UVA -2.6
UVA -4.0
Total
70.5
70 points
Projected score
DAY 33.9 · UVA 36.5
DAY 33 · UVA 37
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUVA -5.5
no move
CloseUVA -5.5
No change since the open
Total
Open146.5
▲ 1
Close147.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
DAY +190 · UVA -230
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UVA -5.5 · unchangedmodel UVA -4.5
model UVA -4.5
Opened 146.5 · closed 147.5 · moved 1 upmodel 150.5
model 150.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAYlast 9 | 7-2 78% | 5-4 56% | 4-5 44% |
| UVAlast 8 | 7-1 88% | 5-3 63% | 4-4 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Dayton
9 games played
Straight up
7-2
78% wins
Against the spread
5-4
56% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-5
44% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CAN | W 88-48 | -25.5 | W +14.5 | 142.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 8 | vs UMBC | W 77-71 | -25.5 | L −19.5 | 154.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 11 | @ CIN | L 62-74 | +5.5 | L −6.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 15 | vs BCU | W 91-82 | -21.5 | L −12.5 | 148.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 19 | @ MARQ | W 77-71 | +6.5 | W +12.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 22 | vs NCCU | W 74-55 | -29.5 | L −10.5 | 146.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 27 | vs GTWN | W 84-79 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 28 | vs BYU | L 79-83 | +9.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 2 | vs ETSU | W 88-71 | -11.5 | W +5.5 | 140.5 | O 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCAN
CANW 88-48
+14.5
8
vsUMBC
UMBCW 77-71
−19.5
11
@CIN
CINL 62-74
−6.5
15
vsBCU
BCUW 91-82
−12.5
19
@MARQ
MARQW 77-71
+12.5
22
vsNCCU
NCCUW 74-55
−10.5
27
vsGTWN
GTWNW 84-79
+3.5
28
vsBYU
BYUL 79-83
+5.5
2
vsETSU
ETSUW 88-71
+5.5
covered 5didn’t cover 4avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCAN
CANW 88-48
−6.5
8
vsUMBC
UMBCW 77-71
−6.5
11
@CIN
CINL 62-74
−11.5
15
vsBCU
BCUW 91-82
+24.5
19
@MARQ
MARQW 77-71
−3.5
22
vsNCCU
NCCUW 74-55
−17.5
27
vsGTWN
GTWNW 84-79
+17.5
28
vsBYU
BYUL 79-83
+11.5
2
vsETSU
ETSUW 88-71
+18.5
over 4under 5avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Virginia
8 games played
Straight up
7-1
88% wins
Against the spread
5-3
63% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-4
50% overs · avg +2.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RID | W 87-53 | -26.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 7 | vsNCCU | W 81-62 | -34.5 | L −15.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 11 | vs HAMP | W 91-53 | -24.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 15 | vs MRSH | W 104-78 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 21 | vs NU | W 83-78 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs BTLR | L 73-80 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 28 | vs QUC | W 94-69 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 3 | @ TEX | W 88-69 | +3.5 | W +22.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
+7.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−15.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
+13.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+5.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+0.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−13.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
−0.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+22.5
covered 5didn’t cover 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
−8.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−8.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
−4.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+26.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+11.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−2.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
+2.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+2.5
over 4under 4avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Dayton
7-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs ETSU88–71
- Lvs BYU79–83
- Wvs Georgetown84–79
- Wvs NC Central74–55
- W@ Marquette77–71
4 days since their last game.
Virginia
7-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Texas88–69
- Wvs Queens University Royals94–69
- Lvs Butler73–80
- Wvs Northwestern83–78
- Wvs Marshall104–78
3 days since their last game.