Gallagher Center · at Niagara · Conference game
Closing line
FAIR -3.5✓ FAIR covered by 4.5
FAIR -3.5✓ FAIR covered by 4.5Closing total138.5Over by 19.5
| FAIR | This season | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| 7-7 | Record | 3-9 |
| 5-9 | ATS | 4-8 |
| 7-7 | O/U | 5-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: FAIR 72–69 NIA · ✓ FAIR (60%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FAIR | 41 | 42 | 83 |
| NIA | 31 | 44 | 75 |
1st half: FAIR 41, NIA 31 (FAIR by 10). The model had FAIR by 1.8 and a total of 66.1 (actual 72).
Team stats
| FAIR | NIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-57 51% | Field goals | 31-57 54% |
| 6-16 38% | 3-pointers | 9-23 39% |
| 19-21 90% | Free throws | 4-4 100% |
| 31 12 off | Rebounds | 24 7 off |
| 9 | Assists | 14 |
| 5 | Steals | 3 |
| 5 | Blocks | 8 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 44 |
| 17 | Fast-break points | 2 |
Players
| FAIR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Benjamin F | 35 | 23 | 9 | 2 | 10-15 | 0-0 |
| Braden Sparks G | 34 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 5-9 | 1-3 |
| Declan Wucherpfennig G | 31 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 5-7 | 2-2 |
| Tony Williams G | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-4 |
| Halon Rawlins G | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Deuce Turner G | 24 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 5-9 | 1-3 |
| Eric Mejia G | 22 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0-6 | 0-1 |
| Ryan Zan F | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Cam Estevez G | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Isaac Munkadi F | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tanner Ostop, Nasir Rodriguez, Aidan May, Peyton Smith, Joe Ganton, Luke Davidson, Matt Curtis, Michael Rogan, Noah Best
| NIA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landon Williams G | 34 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 4-7 | 3-5 |
| Justin Page G | 31 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 8-13 | 3-6 |
| Will Shortt F | 30 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 6-9 | 0-0 |
| Justin Hawkins F | 24 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3-6 | 0-2 |
| Reggie Prudhomme G | 24 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 4-6 | 3-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Josiah Sabino G | 17 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-1 |
| Vice Zanki F | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Trenton Walters G | 13 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Kabeya Tshibangu C | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Brian Griffith G | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Gael Dalmau, Drew Larson, AJ McBride
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketFAIR -3.5
ModelFAIR -2.9
Model edgeNIA +0.6
L FAIR covered
Total
Market138.5
Model141.0
Model edgeOver 2.5
W Over
Projected score
FAIR 72 · NIA 69.1
FAIR 83 · NIA 75
Win probability
FAIR 60%
1st half
Spread
FAIR -1.8
FAIR -10.0
Total
66.1
72 points
Projected score
FAIR 34 · NIA 32.1
FAIR 41 · NIA 31
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenFAIR -4.5
1 → NIA
CloseFAIR -3.5
1 pt toward NIA
Total
Open139.5
▼ 1
Close138.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
FAIR -166 · NIA +140
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened FAIR -4.5 · closed FAIR -3.5 · moved 1 toward NIAmodel FAIR -3
model FAIR -3
Opened 139.5 · closed 138.5 · moved 1 downmodel 141
model 141
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FAIR | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% |
| NIA | 2-8 20% | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
FAIR 3–4 NIANIA leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · FAIR 3-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2024-25 | NIA 66 @ FAIR 70 | FAIR -1.5 | FAIR W |
| Feb 16, 2023-24 | NIA 65 @ FAIR 63 | FAIR -6.5 | NIA W |
| Jan 12, 2023-24 | FAIR 72 @ NIA 96 | NIA +1.5 | NIA W |
| Feb 24, 2022-23 | FAIR 68 @ NIA 76 | NIA -1.5 | NIA W |
| Jan 6, 2022-23 | NIA 77 @ FAIR 69 | FAIR -3.5 | NIA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Fairfield
14 games played
Straight up
7-7
50% wins
Against the spread
5-9
36% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-7
50% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ PSU | L 68-76 | +15.5 | W +7.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 8 | @ NJIT | W 74-53 | -6.5 | W +14.5 | 145.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 10 | @ HALL | L 59-82 | +14.5 | L −8.5 | 137.5 | O 141 |
| Nov 14 | vs STO | W 73-71 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | O 144 |
| Nov 16 | vs L-MD | W 85-82 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 135.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 22 | @ LEM | W 97-83 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 26 | vs COLU | L 77-106 | +3.5 | L −25.5 | 150.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 30 | vs UNH | W 72-68 | -9.5 | L −5.5 | 147.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 5 | @ MAN | L 66-70 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 7 | @ MRMK | L 63-74 | +3.5 | L −7.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 14 | vs MONM | W 73-65 | +2.5 | W +10.5 | 143.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 18 | @ CCSU | W 84-70 | +6.5 | W +20.5 | 143.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 29 | vs SPU | L 66-70 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 2 | @ CAN | L 81-85 | -6.5 | L −10.5 | 140.5 | O 166 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@PSU
PSUL 68-76
+7.5
8
@NJIT
NJITW 74-53
+14.5
10
@HALL
HALLL 59-82
−8.5
14
vsSTO
STOW 73-71
−4.5
16
vsL-MD
L-MDW 85-82
−2.5
22
@LEM
LEMW 97-83
+12.5
26
vsCOLU
COLUL 77-106
−25.5
30
vsUNH
UNHW 72-68
−5.5
5
@MAN
MANL 66-70
−5.5
7
@MRMK
MRMKL 63-74
−7.5
14
vsMONM
MONMW 73-65
+10.5
18
@CCSU
CCSUW 84-70
+20.5
29
vsSPU
SPUL 66-70
−6.5
2
@CAN
CANL 81-85
−10.5
covered 5didn’t cover 9avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@PSU
PSUL 68-76
−7.5
8
@NJIT
NJITW 74-53
−18.5
10
@HALL
HALLL 59-82
+3.5
14
vsSTO
STOW 73-71
+0.5
16
vsL-MD
L-MDW 85-82
+31.5
22
@LEM
LEMW 97-83
+34.5
26
vsCOLU
COLUL 77-106
+32.5
30
vsUNH
UNHW 72-68
−7.5
5
@MAN
MANL 66-70
−19.5
7
@MRMK
MRMKL 63-74
−7.5
14
vsMONM
MONMW 73-65
−5.5
18
@CCSU
CCSUW 84-70
+10.5
29
vsSPU
SPUL 66-70
−4.5
2
@CAN
CANL 81-85
+25.5
over 7under 7avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Niagara
12 games played
Straight up
3-9
25% wins
Against the spread
4-8
33% covers · avg −4.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-7
42% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ DUQ | L 63-83 | +17.5 | L −2.5 | 139.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 8 | @ BING | W 67-59 | +2.5 | W +10.5 | 138.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 10 | vs DSU | W 68-57 | -5.5 | W +5.5 | 137.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 17 | @LEM | L 68-74 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 138.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 21 | @ DUKE | L 42-100 | +39.5 | L −18.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 22 | vs HOW | L 70-80 | +4.5 | L −5.5 | 138.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 29 | vs DETM | L 66-70 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 142.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 5 | @ SIE | L 54-83 | +12.5 | L −16.5 | 129.5 | O 137 |
| Dec 7 | @SPU | L 43-71 | +5.5 | L −22.5 | 131.5 | U 114 |
| Dec 13 | @ MORG | L 73-81 | +1.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 15 | @ VCU | L 58-84 | +30.5 | W +4.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 2 | vs SHU | W 64-61 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 139.5 | U 125 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@DUQ
DUQL 63-83
−2.5
8
@BING
BINGW 67-59
+10.5
10
vsDSU
DSUW 68-57
+5.5
17
@LEM
LEML 68-74
−3.5
21
@DUKE
DUKEL 42-100
−18.5
22
vsHOW
HOWL 70-80
−5.5
29
vsDETM
DETML 66-70
−2.5
5
@SIE
SIEL 54-83
−16.5
7
@SPU
SPUL 43-71
−22.5
13
@MORG
MORGL 73-81
−6.5
15
@VCU
VCUL 58-84
+4.5
2
vsSHU
SHUW 64-61
+4.5
covered 4didn’t cover 8avg −4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@DUQ
DUQL 63-83
+6.5
8
@BING
BINGW 67-59
−12.5
10
vsDSU
DSUW 68-57
−12.5
17
@LEM
LEML 68-74
+3.5
21
@DUKE
DUKEL 42-100
−4.5
22
vsHOW
HOWL 70-80
+11.5
29
vsDETM
DETML 66-70
−6.5
5
@SIE
SIEL 54-83
+7.5
7
@SPU
SPUL 43-71
−17.5
13
@MORG
MORGL 73-81
+13.5
15
@VCU
VCUL 58-84
−1.5
2
vsSHU
SHUW 64-61
−14.5
over 5under 7avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Fairfield
7-7 overall · 0-4 in conference · Metro Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Canisius81–85
- Lvs Saint Peter's66–70
- W@ C Connecticut84–70
- Wvs Monmouth73–65
- L@ Merrimack63–74
2 days since their last game.
Niagara
3-9 overall · 1-2 in conference · Metro Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Sacred Heart64–61
- L@ VCU58–84
- L@ Morgan St73–81
- L@ Saint Peter's43–71
- L@ Siena54–83
2 days since their last game.