Detrick Gymnasium · at C Connecticut · Conference game
Closing line
CCSU -3.5✓ MERC covered by 1.5
CCSU -3.5✓ MERC covered by 1.5Closing total141.5Over by 16.5
 MERC | This season | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| 12-15 | Record | 14-11 |
| 17-9 | ATS | 14-11 |
| 12-14 | O/U | 14-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MERC 68–70 CCSU · ✓ CCSU (57%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MERC | 30 | 48 | 78 |
| CCSU | 34 | 46 | 80 |
1st half: MERC 30, CCSU 34 (CCSU by 4). The model had CCSU by 1.0 and a total of 64.4 (actual 64).
Team stats
| MERC | CCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 31-62 50% | Field goals | 28-51 55% |
| 4-17 24% | 3-pointers | 4-10 40% |
| 12-14 86% | Free throws | 20-28 71% |
| 28 7 off | Rebounds | 30 6 off |
| 10 | Assists | 12 |
| 6 | Steals | 3 |
| 2 | Blocks | 3 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 21 | Fouls | 13 |
| 48 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| MERC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Lemelman G | 35 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 5-14 | 0-5 |
| Bernie Blunt III G | 33 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 4-6 | 3-4 |
| Qadir Martin F | 27 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 7-12 | 0-0 |
| Mykolas Ivanauskas F | 17 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 6-9 | 0-1 |
| Christian Gamble G | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| DeShaun Jackson Jr. PG | 23 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| Cameron Johnson F | 18 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Sean Lang G | 14 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Kaden Fuhrmann G | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| James Thomas F | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Vladimir Pavlovic, Brady Conner, Emilis Butkus, Chris Leman, Or Faran
| CCSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones G | 34 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Max Frazier F | 34 | 17 | 13 | 1 | 8-9 | 0-0 |
| Darin Smith Jr. G | 34 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 6-13 | 0-1 |
| Jay Rodgers G | 32 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 6-10 | 1-2 |
| Melo Sanchez G | 32 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 5-8 | 2-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Daniel James F | 12 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Elijah Parker G | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Jayden Mott F | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Roddy Jones G | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Adam Fox, Ja'Kobe Williams, Corsley Edwards Jr., Nico Ashley, Gabe Spinelli, Ashton Reynolds, Rashawn Tibby
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketCCSU -3.5
ModelCCSU -2.0
Model edgeMERC +1.5
W MERC covered
Total
Market141.5
Model137.6
Model edgeUnder 3.9
L Over
Projected score
MERC 67.8 · CCSU 69.8
MERC 78 · CCSU 80
Win probability
CCSU 57%
1st half
Spread
CCSU -1.0
CCSU -4.0
Total
64.4
64 points
Projected score
MERC 31.7 · CCSU 32.7
MERC 30 · CCSU 34
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCCSU -2.5
1 → CCSU
CloseCCSU -3.5
1 pt toward CCSU
Total
Open140.5
▲ 1
Close141.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
MERC +154 · CCSU -185
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CCSU -2.5 · closed CCSU -3.5 · moved 1 toward CCSUmodel CCSU -2
model CCSU -2
Opened 140.5 · closed 141.5 · moved 1 upmodel 137.5
model 137.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MERC | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
| CCSU | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MERC 1–2 CCSUCCSU leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · MERC 2-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2025-26 | CCSU 61 @ MERC 79 | MERC -1.5 | MERC W |
| Feb 13, 2024-25 | MERC 63 @ CCSU 73 | CCSU -12.5 | MERC W |
| Jan 5, 2024-25 | CCSU 62 @ MERC 50 | MERC +8.5 | CCSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mercyhurst
27 games played
Straight up
12-15
44% wins
Against the spread
17-9
65% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-14
46% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ NU | L 47-70 | +26.5 | W +3.5 | 140.5 | U 117 |
| Nov 6 | @ LUC | W 73-65 | +21.5 | W +29.5 | 144.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 12 | @ CAN | L 55-58 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 135.5 | U 113 |
| Nov 15 | vs MORG | W 86-72 | -6.5 | W +7.5 | 146.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 20 | @ M-OH | L 71-76 | +15.5 | W +10.5 | 139.5 | O 147 |
| Nov 23 | @ MRSH | L 60-69 | +11.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 30 | @ WVU | L 38-70 | +21.5 | L −10.5 | 127.5 | U 108 |
| Dec 5 | @ LAF | L 71-79 | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 13 | @ DAV | L 47-80 | +11.5 | L −21.5 | 132.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 17 | @ SYR | L 62-76 | +24.5 | W +10.5 | 131.5 | O 138 |
| Dec 20 | vs BING | W 82-61 | -7.5 | W +13.5 | 132.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 2 | vs FDU | L 67-74 | -5.5 | L −12.5 | 133.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 4 | vs LEM | W 74-60 | -2.5 | W +11.5 | 141.5 | U 134 |
| Jan 8 | @ LIU | L 58-60 | +8.5 | W +6.5 | 139.5 | U 118 |
| Jan 10 | @ WAG | W 70-69 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 132.5 | O 139 |
| Jan 17 | vs STO | L 57-62 | -4.5 | L −9.5 | 128.5 | U 119 |
| Jan 19 | vsCCSU | W 79-61 | -1.5 | W +16.5 | 132.5 | O 140 |
| Jan 23 | @ NHVN | W 61-57 | -1.5 | W +2.5 | 122.5 | U 118 |
| Jan 25 | vs CHST | W 61-59 | -9.5 | L −7.5 | 131.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 29 | vsNHVN | W 70-51 | -5.5 | W +13.5 | 122.5 | U 121 |
| Jan 31 | @CHST | L 74-78 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 129.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 5 | vs SFPA | W 98-89 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 137.5 | O 187 |
| Feb 7 | @FDU | L 52-55 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 131.5 | U 107 |
| Feb 12 | @LEM | L 57-58 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 138.5 | U 115 |
| Feb 14 | @SFPA | W 94-79 | -2.5 | W +12.5 | 138.5 | O 173 |
| Feb 19 | vsWAG | L 80-83 | -3.5 | L −6.5 | 133.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 21 | vsLIU | W 91-83 | +3.5 | W +11.5 | 140.5 | O 174 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@NU
NUL 47-70
+3.5
6
@LUC
LUCW 73-65
+29.5
12
@CAN
CANL 55-58
−4.5
15
vsMORG
MORGW 86-72
+7.5
20
@M-OH
M-OHL 71-76
+10.5
23
@MRSH
MRSHL 60-69
+2.5
30
@WVU
WVUL 38-70
−10.5
13
@DAV
DAVL 47-80
−21.5
17
@SYR
SYRL 62-76
+10.5
20
vsBING
BINGW 82-61
+13.5
2
vsFDU
FDUL 67-74
−12.5
4
vsLEM
LEMW 74-60
+11.5
8
@LIU
LIUL 58-60
+6.5
10
@WAG
WAGW 70-69
+2.5
17
vsSTO
STOL 57-62
−9.5
19
vsCCSU
CCSUW 79-61
+16.5
23
@NHVN
NHVNW 61-57
+2.5
25
vsCHST
CHSTW 61-59
−7.5
29
vsNHVN
NHVNW 70-51
+13.5
31
@CHST
CHSTL 74-78
−6.5
5
vsSFPA
SFPAW 98-89
+2.5
7
@FDU
FDUL 52-55
−0.5
12
@LEM
LEML 57-58
+1.5
14
@SFPA
SFPAW 94-79
+12.5
19
vsWAG
WAGL 80-83
−6.5
21
vsLIU
LIUW 91-83
+11.5
covered 17didn’t cover 9avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@NU
NUL 47-70
−23.5
6
@LUC
LUCW 73-65
−6.5
12
@CAN
CANL 55-58
−22.5
15
vsMORG
MORGW 86-72
+11.5
20
@M-OH
M-OHL 71-76
+7.5
23
@MRSH
MRSHL 60-69
−18.5
30
@WVU
WVUL 38-70
−19.5
13
@DAV
DAVL 47-80
−5.5
17
@SYR
SYRL 62-76
+6.5
20
vsBING
BINGW 82-61
+10.5
2
vsFDU
FDUL 67-74
+7.5
4
vsLEM
LEMW 74-60
−7.5
8
@LIU
LIUL 58-60
−21.5
10
@WAG
WAGW 70-69
+6.5
17
vsSTO
STOL 57-62
−9.5
19
vsCCSU
CCSUW 79-61
+7.5
23
@NHVN
NHVNW 61-57
−4.5
25
vsCHST
CHSTW 61-59
−11.5
29
vsNHVN
NHVNW 70-51
−1.5
31
@CHST
CHSTL 74-78
+22.5
5
vsSFPA
SFPAW 98-89
+49.5
7
@FDU
FDUL 52-55
−24.5
12
@LEM
LEML 57-58
−23.5
14
@SFPA
SFPAW 94-79
+34.5
19
vsWAG
WAGL 80-83
+29.5
21
vsLIU
LIUW 91-83
+33.5
over 12under 14avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
C Connecticut
25 games played
Straight up
14-11
56% wins
Against the spread
14-11
56% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-11
56% overs · avg +3.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | @ QUIN | L 49-71 | +9.5 | L −12.5 | 150.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 11 | @ BC | W 60-59 | +17.5 | W +18.5 | 136.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 16 | @ MASS | L 77-84 | +12.5 | W +5.5 | 144.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 21 | @ RUTG | W 67-54 | +15.5 | W +28.5 | 137.5 | U 121 |
| Nov 24 | vs SHU | W 108-106 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 143.5 | O 214 |
| Dec 3 | @ HALL | L 61-77 | +18.5 | W +2.5 | 128.5 | O 138 |
| Dec 7 | @ NE | L 56-73 | +1.5 | L −15.5 | 138.5 | U 129 |
| Dec 13 | @BING | W 84-67 | -7.5 | W +9.5 | 133.5 | O 151 |
| Dec 18 | vs FAIR | L 70-84 | -6.5 | L −20.5 | 143.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 2 | @LIU | L 78-84 | +6.5 | W +0.5 | 146.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 4 | vsNHVN | W 72-61 | -7.5 | W +3.5 | 130.5 | O 133 |
| Jan 8 | vsSTO | W 76-69 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 134.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 10 | @LEM | W 69-59 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 146.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 17 | @SFPA | W 98-90 | -6.5 | W +1.5 | 144.5 | O 188 |
| Jan 19 | @MERC | L 61-79 | +1.5 | L −16.5 | 132.5 | O 140 |
| Jan 23 | vsFDU | L 66-76 | -7.5 | L −17.5 | 140.5 | O 142 |
| Jan 26 | @STO | L 59-61 | -1.5 | L −3.5 | 135.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 29 | @WAG | W 62-55 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 136.5 | U 117 |
| Jan 31 | vsLIU | L 59-80 | +2.5 | L −18.5 | 142.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 5 | vsCHST | W 78-67 | -8.5 | W +2.5 | 138.5 | O 145 |
| Feb 7 | vsWAG | W 84-67 | -5.5 | W +11.5 | 136.5 | O 151 |
| Feb 12 | @NHVN | W 81-76 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 128.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 14 | @FDU | W 63-57 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 133.5 | U 120 |
| Feb 19 | vsLEM | W 78-77 | -8.5 | L −7.5 | 165.5 | U 155 |
| Feb 21 | @CHST | L 51-70 | -3.5 | L −22.5 | 138.5 | U 121 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
6
@QUIN
QUINL 49-71
−12.5
11
@BC
BCW 60-59
+18.5
16
@MASS
MASSL 77-84
+5.5
21
@RUTG
RUTGW 67-54
+28.5
24
vsSHU
SHUW 108-106
−1.5
3
@HALL
HALLL 61-77
+2.5
7
@NE
NEL 56-73
−15.5
13
@BING
BINGW 84-67
+9.5
18
vsFAIR
FAIRL 70-84
−20.5
2
@LIU
LIUL 78-84
+0.5
4
vsNHVN
NHVNW 72-61
+3.5
8
vsSTO
STOW 76-69
−0.5
10
@LEM
LEMW 69-59
+11.5
17
@SFPA
SFPAW 98-90
+1.5
19
@MERC
MERCL 61-79
−16.5
23
vsFDU
FDUL 66-76
−17.5
26
@STO
STOL 59-61
−3.5
29
@WAG
WAGW 62-55
+4.5
31
vsLIU
LIUL 59-80
−18.5
5
vsCHST
CHSTW 78-67
+2.5
7
vsWAG
WAGW 84-67
+11.5
12
@NHVN
NHVNW 81-76
+1.5
14
@FDU
FDUW 63-57
+7.5
19
vsLEM
LEMW 78-77
−7.5
21
@CHST
CHSTL 51-70
−22.5
covered 14didn’t cover 11avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
6
@QUIN
QUINL 49-71
−30.5
11
@BC
BCW 60-59
−17.5
16
@MASS
MASSL 77-84
+16.5
21
@RUTG
RUTGW 67-54
−16.5
24
vsSHU
SHUW 108-106
+70.5
3
@HALL
HALLL 61-77
+9.5
7
@NE
NEL 56-73
−9.5
13
@BING
BINGW 84-67
+17.5
18
vsFAIR
FAIRL 70-84
+10.5
2
@LIU
LIUL 78-84
+15.5
4
vsNHVN
NHVNW 72-61
+2.5
8
vsSTO
STOW 76-69
+10.5
10
@LEM
LEMW 69-59
−18.5
17
@SFPA
SFPAW 98-90
+43.5
19
@MERC
MERCL 61-79
+7.5
23
vsFDU
FDUL 66-76
+1.5
26
@STO
STOL 59-61
−15.5
29
@WAG
WAGW 62-55
−19.5
31
vsLIU
LIUL 59-80
−3.5
5
vsCHST
CHSTW 78-67
+6.5
7
vsWAG
WAGW 84-67
+14.5
12
@NHVN
NHVNW 81-76
+28.5
14
@FDU
FDUW 63-57
−13.5
19
vsLEM
LEMW 78-77
−10.5
21
@CHST
CHSTL 51-70
−17.5
over 14under 11avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Mercyhurst
12-15 overall · 9-7 in conference · Northeast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Long Island91–83
- Lvs Wagner80–83
- W@ Saint Francis Red Wolves94–79
- L@ Le Moyne57–58
- L@ FDU52–55
5 days since their last game.
C Connecticut
14-11 overall · 10-6 in conference · Northeast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Chicago St51–70
- Wvs Le Moyne78–77
- W@ FDU63–57
- W@ New Haven81–76
- Wvs Wagner84–67
5 days since their last game.