Trojan Arena · at Troy · Conference game
Closing line
TROY -8.5✓ TROY covered by 11.5
TROY -8.5✓ TROY covered by 11.5Closing total145.5Over by 34.5
 TXST | This season | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | Record | 6-5 |
| 5-7 | ATS | 6-5 |
| 6-6 | O/U | 6-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TXST 71–80 TROY · ✓ TROY (79%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TXST | 33 | 47 | 80 |
| TROY | 45 | 55 | 100 |
1st half: TXST 33, TROY 45 (TROY by 12). The model had TROY by 5.3 and a total of 71.1 (actual 78).
Team stats
| TXST | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 31-63 49% | Field goals | 35-57 61% |
| 9-20 45% | 3-pointers | 10-16 63% |
| 9-14 64% | Free throws | 20-32 63% |
| 30 14 off | Rebounds | 33 13 off |
| 17 | Assists | 18 |
| 5 | Steals | 12 |
| 4 | Blocks | 5 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 23 | Fouls | 11 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 48 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 18 |
Players
| TXST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Drone G | 35 | 20 | 2 | 8 | 8-17 | 2-4 |
| DJ Hall F | 33 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 10-16 | 2-3 |
| Kyndall Davis G | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Kaden Gumbs G | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Tay Knox C | 14 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Franck Emmou G | 27 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 4-8 | 2-4 |
| Jalen Bolden G | 24 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 3-9 | 2-6 |
| Robert Fields C | 15 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Makai Willis C | 15 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Jaelyn Lee G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Deke Thompson, Dimp Pernell, Ky Pernell, Cameron Simpson, Isaiah Barganier
| TROY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Campbell G | 36 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 6-9 | 4-5 |
| Thomas Dowd F | 36 | 22 | 6 | 3 | 10-14 | 1-3 |
| Cobi Campbell G | 31 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3-7 | 2-4 |
| Theo Seng F | 25 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 5-9 | 0-1 |
| Victor Valdes F | 24 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jerrell Bellamy C | 19 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Kerrington Kiel F | 16 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 3-5 | 2-2 |
| Austin Cross G | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Emmanuel Clarton, Javen Colbert, Javier Gilgeous-Glasgow, Hikaru Awata, Evan Griffin, Kameryn Mitchell, Corbin Green
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTROY -8.5
ModelTROY -9.1
Model edgeTROY +0.6
W TROY covered
Total
Market145.5
Model151.8
Model edgeOver 6.3
W Over
Projected score
TXST 71.3 · TROY 80.4
TXST 80 · TROY 100
Win probability
TROY 79%
1st half
Spread
TROY -5.3
TROY -12.0
Total
71.1
78 points
Projected score
TXST 32.9 · TROY 38.2
TXST 33 · TROY 45
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTROY -9.5
1 → TXST
CloseTROY -8.5
1 pt toward TXST
Total
Open142.5
▲ 3
Close145.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TROY -9.5 · closed TROY -8.5 · moved 1 toward TXSTmodel TROY -9
model TROY -9
Opened 142.5 · closed 145.5 · moved 3 upmodel 152
model 152
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TXST | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| TROY | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
TXST 4–5 TROYTROY leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · TXST 4-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2024-25 | TROY 74 @ TXST 69 | TXST +1.5 | TROY W |
| Jan 9, 2024-25 | TXST 74 @ TROY 73 | TROY -6.5 | TXST W |
| Mar 9, 2023-24 | TXST 74 vs TROY 68 | TROY -5.5 | TXST W |
| Mar 1, 2023-24 | TROY 79 @ TXST 82 | TXST +4.5 | TXST W |
| Jan 24, 2023-24 | TXST 65 @ TROY 78 | TROY -8.5 | TROY W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Texas St
12 games played
Straight up
6-6
50% wins
Against the spread
5-7
42% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-6
50% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BGSU | L 48-83 | +5.5 | L −29.5 | 146.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 8 | @ TULN | L 71-79 | +12.5 | W +4.5 | 146.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 12 | vs UTSA | W 80-69 | -2.5 | W +8.5 | 147.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 15 | vs TXSO | W 77-67 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 144.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 18 | vs ACU | W 63-49 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 138.5 | U 112 |
| Nov 21 | vs LR | W 65-56 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 131.5 | U 121 |
| Nov 28 | vs SEA | L 52-66 | +7.5 | L −6.5 | 136.5 | U 118 |
| Nov 29 | vs LEH | L 74-78 | -6.5 | L −10.5 | 135.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 3 | @ RICE | L 72-77 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 133.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 10 | vs SOU | W 86-83 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 17 | vs ARST | L 70-89 | +4.5 | L −14.5 | 151.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 20 | vs USA | W 67-65 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 136.5 | U 132 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BGSU
BGSUL 48-83
−29.5
8
@TULN
TULNL 71-79
+4.5
12
vsUTSA
UTSAW 80-69
+8.5
15
vsTXSO
TXSOW 77-67
+5.5
18
vsACU
ACUW 63-49
+12.5
21
vsLR
LRW 65-56
+3.5
28
vsSEA
SEAL 52-66
−6.5
29
vsLEH
LEHL 74-78
−10.5
3
@RICE
RICEL 72-77
−1.5
10
vsSOU
SOUW 86-83
−0.5
17
vsARST
ARSTL 70-89
−14.5
20
vsUSA
USAW 67-65
−1.5
covered 5didn’t cover 7avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BGSU
BGSUL 48-83
−15.5
8
@TULN
TULNL 71-79
+3.5
12
vsUTSA
UTSAW 80-69
+1.5
15
vsTXSO
TXSOW 77-67
−0.5
18
vsACU
ACUW 63-49
−26.5
21
vsLR
LRW 65-56
−10.5
28
vsSEA
SEAL 52-66
−18.5
29
vsLEH
LEHL 74-78
+16.5
3
@RICE
RICEL 72-77
+15.5
10
vsSOU
SOUW 86-83
+26.5
17
vsARST
ARSTL 70-89
+7.5
20
vsUSA
USAW 67-65
−4.5
over 6under 6avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Troy
11 games played
Straight up
6-5
55% wins
Against the spread
6-5
55% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-5
55% overs · avg +15.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ KENT | W 103-97 | +3.5 | W +9.5 | 142.5 | O 200 |
| Nov 7 | @ FUR | W 64-61 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 152.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 14 | @ LMU | L 63-74 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 16 | @ CSUN | L 85-94 | -4.5 | L −13.5 | 157.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 18 | @ SDSU | W 108-107 | +14.5 | W +15.5 | 137.5 | O 215 |
| Nov 20 | @ USC | L 106-107 | +18.5 | W +17.5 | 159.5 | O 213 |
| Nov 24 | vs TOL | L 68-75 | -2.5 | L −9.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs SFPA | W 74-64 | -21.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 1 | vs WGA | L 89-93 | -17.5 | L −21.5 | 150.5 | O 182 |
| Dec 14 | @ UAB | W 86-85 | +6.5 | W +7.5 | 155.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 20 | vs MRSH | W 70-63 | -4.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@KENT
KENTW 103-97
+9.5
7
@FUR
FURW 64-61
+5.5
14
@LMU
LMUL 63-74
−6.5
16
@CSUN
CSUNL 85-94
−13.5
18
@SDSU
SDSUW 108-107
+15.5
20
@USC
USCL 106-107
+17.5
24
vsTOL
TOLL 68-75
−9.5
26
vsSFPA
SFPAW 74-64
−11.5
1
vsWGA
WGAL 89-93
−21.5
14
@UAB
UABW 86-85
+7.5
20
vsMRSH
MRSHW 70-63
+2.5
covered 6didn’t cover 5avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@KENT
KENTW 103-97
+57.5
7
@FUR
FURW 64-61
−27.5
14
@LMU
LMUL 63-74
−3.5
16
@CSUN
CSUNL 85-94
+21.5
18
@SDSU
SDSUW 108-107
+77.5
20
@USC
USCL 106-107
+53.5
24
vsTOL
TOLL 68-75
−16.5
26
vsSFPA
SFPAW 74-64
−13.5
1
vsWGA
WGAL 89-93
+31.5
14
@UAB
UABW 86-85
+15.5
20
vsMRSH
MRSHW 70-63
−22.5
over 6under 5avg +15.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Texas St
6-6 overall · 1-1 in conference · Pac-12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs South Alabama67–65
- Lvs Arkansas St70–89
- Wvs Southern86–83
- L@ Rice72–77
- Lvs Lehigh74–78
A week or more of rest.
Troy
6-5 overall · 1-0 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Marshall70–63
- W@ UAB86–85
- Lvs West Georgia89–93
- Wvs Saint Francis Red Wolves74–64
- Lvs Toledo68–75
A week or more of rest.