Worthington Arena · at Montana St · Conference game
Closing line
MTST -10.5✓ NAU covered by 1.5
MTST -10.5✓ NAU covered by 1.5Closing total143.5Over by 1.5
 NAU | This season | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| 3-8 | Record | 4-7 |
| 6-5 | ATS | 8-3 |
| 3-8 | O/U | 7-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NAU 65–75 MTST · ✓ MTST (81%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAU | 35 | 33 | 68 |
| MTST | 43 | 34 | 77 |
1st half: NAU 35, MTST 43 (MTST by 8). The model had MTST by 6.0 and a total of 65.7 (actual 78).
Team stats
| NAU | MTST | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-59 47% | Field goals | 26-56 46% |
| 5-12 42% | 3-pointers | 12-31 39% |
| 7-11 64% | Free throws | 13-14 93% |
| 27 7 off | Rebounds | 30 10 off |
| 9 | Assists | 12 |
| 2 | Steals | 5 |
| 3 | Blocks | 5 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 22 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| NAU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Abelman G | 28 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3-8 | 0-1 |
| Isaiah Shaw F | 26 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 6-7 | 5-6 |
| Zack Davidson F | 15 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Oakland Fort G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Diego Campisano F | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Traivar Jackson F | 25 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Arne Osojnik F | 21 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3-7 | 0-1 |
| Chris Komin G | 21 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 3-9 | 0-1 |
| Kavon Bradford G | 20 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 5-13 | 0-0 |
| Brennan Peterson G | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Erez Poran G | 13 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Karl Poom F | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: JT Amundsen, Walker Timme
| MTST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jed Miller G | 34 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 8-15 | 5-10 |
| Patrick McMahon G | 28 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 3-7 | 1-2 |
| Jeremiah Davis G | 28 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Chris Hodges F | 25 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Davian Brown G | 24 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0-4 | 0-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Christian King F | 27 | 18 | 9 | 1 | 7-14 | 2-6 |
| Seth Amunrud G | 19 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| Jaden Steppe F | 15 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Howie Keene, James Steward, Cavin Holden, CJ Purdie, Waka Mbatch, Grayson Gaddis, Calum Rutherfurd
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMTST -10.5
ModelMTST -10.2
Model edgeNAU +0.3
W NAU covered
Total
Market143.5
Model140.3
Model edgeUnder 3.2
L Over
Projected score
NAU 65 · MTST 75.2
NAU 68 · MTST 77
Win probability
MTST 81%
1st half
Spread
MTST -6.0
MTST -8.0
Total
65.7
78 points
Projected score
NAU 29.9 · MTST 35.9
NAU 35 · MTST 43
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMTST -9.5
1 → MTST
CloseMTST -10.5
1 pt toward MTST
Total
Open141.5
▲ 2
Close143.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
NAU +440 · MTST -600
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MTST -9.5 · closed MTST -10.5 · moved 1 toward MTSTmodel MTST -10
model MTST -10
Opened 141.5 · closed 143.5 · moved 2 upmodel 140.5
model 140.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAU | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 2-8 20% |
| MTST | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
NAU 2–7 MTSTMTST leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · NAU 6-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2024-25 | MTST 64 @ NAU 69 | NAU -0.5 | NAU W |
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | NAU 53 @ MTST 58 | MTST -6.5 | NAU W |
| Feb 10, 2023-24 | MTST 71 @ NAU 76 | NAU +2.5 | NAU W |
| Jan 11, 2023-24 | NAU 50 @ MTST 79 | MTST -4.5 | MTST W |
| Mar 8, 2022-23 | NAU 78 vs MTST 85 | MTST -6.5 | MTST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
N Arizona
11 games played
Straight up
3-8
27% wins
Against the spread
6-5
55% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-8
27% overs · avg −8.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs DRKE | L 71-77 | +8.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 11 | @ ARIZ | L 49-84 | +35.5 | W +0.5 | 163.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 24 | vs CP | W 93-87 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 26 | vs SEMO | W 79-72 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 153.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | vs SDST | L 62-75 | +2.5 | L −10.5 | 148.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 6 | @ NDSU | L 68-69 | +12.5 | W +11.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 9 | @ ASU | L 48-73 | +16.5 | L −8.5 | 154.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 13 | @ USD | L 69-78 | +4.5 | L −4.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 18 | vs SUU | W 65-57 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 21 | @ UIW | L 66-90 | +6.5 | L −17.5 | 140.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 1 | @ MONT | L 64-78 | +5.5 | L −8.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsDRKE
DRKEL 71-77
+2.5
11
@ARIZ
ARIZL 49-84
+0.5
24
vsCP
CPW 93-87
+7.5
26
vsSEMO
SEMOW 79-72
+4.5
3
vsSDST
SDSTL 62-75
−10.5
6
@NDSU
NDSUL 68-69
+11.5
9
@ASU
ASUL 48-73
−8.5
13
@USD
USDL 69-78
−4.5
18
vsSUU
SUUW 65-57
+2.5
21
@UIW
UIWL 66-90
−17.5
1
@MONT
MONTL 64-78
−8.5
covered 6didn’t cover 5avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsDRKE
DRKEL 71-77
+3.5
11
@ARIZ
ARIZL 49-84
−30.5
24
vsCP
CPW 93-87
+15.5
26
vsSEMO
SEMOW 79-72
−2.5
3
vsSDST
SDSTL 62-75
−11.5
6
@NDSU
NDSUL 68-69
−10.5
9
@ASU
ASUL 48-73
−33.5
13
@USD
USDL 69-78
−2.5
18
vsSUU
SUUW 65-57
−28.5
21
@UIW
UIWL 66-90
+15.5
1
@MONT
MONTL 64-78
−7.5
over 3under 8avg −8.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Montana St
11 games played
Straight up
4-7
36% wins
Against the spread
8-3
73% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-4
64% overs · avg +0.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ COLO | L 78-84 | +11.5 | W +5.5 | 148.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 9 | vs DEN | L 73-75 | -7.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 12 | @ STAN | L 68-77 | +14.5 | W +5.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 15 | @ BOIS | L 58-62 | +16.5 | W +12.5 | 147.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 21 | @ LBSU | W 78-72 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 140.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 29 | @ USU | L 81-84 | +17.5 | W +14.5 | 148.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 3 | vs STMN | W 82-74 | -2.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 6 | @ ORU | L 68-72 | -6.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 13 | @ ORST | L 57-67 | +1.5 | L −8.5 | 140.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 16 | @CP | W 83-80 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 1 | vs UNCO | W 89-75 | -2.5 | W +11.5 | 154.5 | O 164 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@COLO
COLOL 78-84
+5.5
9
vsDEN
DENL 73-75
−9.5
12
@STAN
STANL 68-77
+5.5
15
@BOIS
BOISL 58-62
+12.5
21
@LBSU
LBSUW 78-72
+2.5
29
@USU
USUL 81-84
+14.5
3
vsSTMN
STMNW 82-74
+5.5
6
@ORU
ORUL 68-72
−10.5
13
@ORST
ORSTL 57-67
−8.5
16
@CP
CPW 83-80
+0.5
1
vsUNCO
UNCOW 89-75
+11.5
covered 8didn’t cover 3avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@COLO
COLOL 78-84
+13.5
9
vsDEN
DENL 73-75
+1.5
12
@STAN
STANL 68-77
−3.5
15
@BOIS
BOISL 58-62
−27.5
21
@LBSU
LBSUW 78-72
+9.5
29
@USU
USUL 81-84
+16.5
3
vsSTMN
STMNW 82-74
+8.5
6
@ORU
ORUL 68-72
−10.5
13
@ORST
ORSTL 57-67
−16.5
16
@CP
CPW 83-80
+3.5
1
vsUNCO
UNCOW 89-75
+9.5
over 7under 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
N Arizona
3-8 overall · 0-1 in conference · Big Sky Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Montana64–78
- L@ Incarnate Word66–90
- Wvs Southern Utah65–57
- L@ San Diego69–78
- L@ Arizona St48–73
2 days since their last game.
Montana St
4-7 overall · 1-0 in conference · Big Sky Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs N Colorado89–75
- W@ Cal Poly83–80
- L@ Oregon St57–67
- L@ Oral Roberts68–72
- Wvs St Thomas82–74
2 days since their last game.