Pan American Center · at New Mexico St · Conference game
Closing line
NMSU -3.5✓ MTSU covered by 7.5
NMSU -3.5✓ MTSU covered by 7.5Closing total144.5Under by 30.5
 MTSU | This season | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | Record | 6-5 |
| 6-6 | ATS | 6-5 |
| 5-7 | O/U | 8-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MTSU 72–74 NMSU · ✗ NMSU (58%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTSU | 29 | 30 | 59 |
| NMSU | 29 | 26 | 55 |
1st half: MTSU 29, NMSU 29 (tied). The model had NMSU by 1.2 and a total of 68.3 (actual 58).
Team stats
| MTSU | NMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 20-50 40% | Field goals | 18-52 35% |
| 4-19 21% | 3-pointers | 6-25 24% |
| 15-24 63% | Free throws | 13-22 59% |
| 38 6 off | Rebounds | 37 8 off |
| 12 | Assists | 11 |
| 7 | Steals | 5 |
| 2 | Blocks | 1 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 16 |
| 16 | Fast-break points | 6 |
Players
| MTSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Loofe F | 34 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Jahvin Carter G | 32 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 4-11 | 1-3 |
| Torey Alston F | 32 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 4-8 | 0-1 |
| Alec Oglesby G | 30 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-3 |
| Kamari Lands G | 26 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 4-10 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| James Dent Jr. G | 16 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Sean Smith G | 15 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-5 | 1-3 |
| Tre Green G | 9 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Luka Jovanovic C | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Marcus Whitlock Jr., Jarred Hall, Charvez Ambrose, Jax Howard, Brandon Oloumou, Savon Wykle
| NMSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jae'Coby Osborne F | 31 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Julius Mims F | 30 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Jemel Jones G | 22 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 5-10 | 1-3 |
| Elijah Elliott G | 21 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1-8 | 0-5 |
| Cyr Malonga C | 21 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Anthony Wrzeszcz G | 20 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2-7 | 2-7 |
| Kyrese Mullen F | 19 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Gabe Pickens G | 18 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| Jayland Randall G | 18 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
Did not play: Christian Villegas, Chris Terrell, Augustine Ekwe, Teysean Eaglestaff, Omarr Smith, Amarco Doyle
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketNMSU -3.5
ModelNMSU -2.2
Model edgeMTSU +1.3
W MTSU covered
Total
Market144.5
Model145.7
Model edgeOver 1.2
L Under
Projected score
MTSU 71.8 · NMSU 73.9
MTSU 59 · NMSU 55
Win probability
NMSU 58%
1st half
Spread
NMSU -1.2
tied
Total
68.3
58 points
Projected score
MTSU 33.5 · NMSU 34.7
MTSU 29 · NMSU 29
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNMSU -3.5
no move
CloseNMSU -3.5
No change since the open
Total
Open142.5
▲ 2
Close144.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
MTSU +145 · NMSU -175
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NMSU -3.5 · unchangedmodel NMSU -2
model NMSU -2
Opened 142.5 · closed 144.5 · moved 2 upmodel 145.5
model 145.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTSU | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
| NMSU | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MTSU 2–2 NMSUSeries tied · 4 games since 2021-22 · MTSU 2-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2024-25 | MTSU 71 @ NMSU 66 | NMSU -1.5 | MTSU W |
| Jan 30, 2024-25 | NMSU 61 @ MTSU 57 | MTSU -7.5 | NMSU W |
| Feb 15, 2023-24 | NMSU 69 @ MTSU 76 | MTSU -3.5 | MTSU W |
| Jan 20, 2023-24 | MTSU 62 @ NMSU 73 | NMSU -5.5 | NMSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
MTSU
12 games played
Straight up
6-6
50% wins
Against the spread
6-6
50% covers · avg +4.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-7
42% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 | @ EVAN | W 77-72 | +2.5 | W +7.5 | 140.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 19 | @ MICH | L 61-86 | +27.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 23 | vs MUR | W 90-87 | +6.5 | W +9.5 | 161.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 24 | vs GW | L 79-92 | +9.5 | L −3.5 | 158.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 25 | vs MCN | L 62-72 | +9.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 1 | vs UAB | W 76-61 | +1.5 | W +16.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 7 | vs BEL | L 62-83 | +3.5 | L −17.5 | 153.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 17 | vs KENN | W 68-67 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 160.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 29 | @ HOU | L 60-69 | +25.5 | W +16.5 | 138.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 2 | vs LT | W 88-51 | -6.5 | W +30.5 | 134.5 | O 139 |
| Jan 4 | vs SHSU | W 68-67 | -4.5 | L −3.5 | 156.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 8 | @ UTEP | L 80-83 | -3.5 | L −6.5 | 137.5 | O 163 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
12
@EVAN
EVANW 77-72
+7.5
19
@MICH
MICHL 61-86
+2.5
23
vsMUR
MURW 90-87
+9.5
24
vsGW
GWL 79-92
−3.5
25
vsMCN
MCNL 62-72
−0.5
1
vsUAB
UABW 76-61
+16.5
7
vsBEL
BELL 62-83
−17.5
17
vsKENN
KENNW 68-67
−2.5
29
@HOU
HOUL 60-69
+16.5
2
vsLT
LTW 88-51
+30.5
4
vsSHSU
SHSUW 68-67
−3.5
8
@UTEP
UTEPL 80-83
−6.5
covered 6didn’t cover 6avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
12
@EVAN
EVANW 77-72
+8.5
19
@MICH
MICHL 61-86
−12.5
23
vsMUR
MURW 90-87
+15.5
24
vsGW
GWL 79-92
+12.5
25
vsMCN
MCNL 62-72
−13.5
1
vsUAB
UABW 76-61
−16.5
7
vsBEL
BELL 62-83
−8.5
17
vsKENN
KENNW 68-67
−25.5
29
@HOU
HOUL 60-69
−9.5
2
vsLT
LTW 88-51
+4.5
4
vsSHSU
SHSUW 68-67
−21.5
8
@UTEP
UTEPL 80-83
+25.5
over 5under 7avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
New Mexico St
11 games played
Straight up
6-5
55% wins
Against the spread
6-5
55% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-3
73% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15 | vs UNM | W 76-68 | +3.5 | W +11.5 | 139.5 | O 144 |
| Nov 21 | vs SAM | W 81-72 | -8.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 25 | vs UCI | W 57-45 | +2.5 | W +14.5 | 139.5 | U 102 |
| Nov 26 | vs GAST | W 77-58 | -12.5 | W +6.5 | 136.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 2 | vs USA | L 75-77 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 135.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 6 | @ ACU | L 69-77 | -1.5 | L −9.5 | 131.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 13 | vs TLSA | L 70-83 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 21 | vsSHSU | W 87-78 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 153.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 2 | @ FIU | L 74-89 | -1.5 | L −16.5 | 157.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 4 | @ MOST | L 82-89 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 134.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 8 | vs WKU | W 80-64 | -2.5 | W +13.5 | 154.5 | U 144 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
15
vsUNM
UNMW 76-68
+11.5
21
vsSAM
SAMW 81-72
+0.5
25
vsUCI
UCIW 57-45
+14.5
26
vsGAST
GASTW 77-58
+6.5
2
vsUSA
USAL 75-77
−4.5
6
@ACU
ACUL 69-77
−9.5
13
vsTLSA
TLSAL 70-83
−8.5
21
vsSHSU
SHSUW 87-78
+3.5
2
@FIU
FIUL 74-89
−16.5
4
@MOST
MOSTL 82-89
−5.5
8
vsWKU
WKUW 80-64
+13.5
covered 6didn’t cover 5avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
15
vsUNM
UNMW 76-68
+4.5
21
vsSAM
SAMW 81-72
+7.5
25
vsUCI
UCIW 57-45
−37.5
26
vsGAST
GASTW 77-58
−1.5
2
vsUSA
USAL 75-77
+16.5
6
@ACU
ACUL 69-77
+14.5
13
vsTLSA
TLSAL 70-83
+6.5
21
vsSHSU
SHSUW 87-78
+11.5
2
@FIU
FIUL 74-89
+5.5
4
@MOST
MOSTL 82-89
+36.5
8
vsWKU
WKUW 80-64
−10.5
over 8under 3avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
MTSU
6-6 overall · 3-1 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ UTEP80–83
- Wvs Sam Houston68–67
- Wvs Louisiana Tech88–51
- L@ Houston60–69
- Wvs Kennesaw St68–67
2 days since their last game.
New Mexico St
6-5 overall · 2-2 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Western KY80–64
- L@ Missouri St82–89
- L@ FIU74–89
- Wvs Sam Houston87–78
- Lvs Tulsa70–83
2 days since their last game.