Thomas Assembly Center · at Louisiana Tech · Conference game
Closing line
LIB -4.5✓ LIB covered by 11.5
LIB -4.5✓ LIB covered by 11.5Closing total135.5Under by 7.5
| LIB | This season | LT |
|---|---|---|
| 8-3 | Record | 5-6 |
| 5-6 | ATS | 5-6 |
| 6-5 | O/U | 5-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LIB 69–65 LT · ✓ LIB (62%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | 34 | 38 | 72 |
| LT | 27 | 29 | 56 |
1st half: LIB 34, LT 27 (LIB by 7). The model had LIB by 2.3 and a total of 62.7 (actual 61).
Team stats
| LIB | LT | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-54 46% | Field goals | 21-60 35% |
| 9-24 38% | 3-pointers | 9-24 38% |
| 13-16 81% | Free throws | 5-11 45% |
| 41 9 off | Rebounds | 33 11 off |
| 13 | Assists | 12 |
| 5 | Steals | 4 |
| 5 | Blocks | 4 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 18 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| LIB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Cleveland F | 35 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 4-9 | 0-0 |
| Colin Porter G | 34 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4-10 | 1-3 |
| Brett Decker Jr. G | 33 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 6-12 | 3-6 |
| Kaden Metheny G | 31 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 4-9 | 3-7 |
| JJ Harper G | 28 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 4-7 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Josh Smith F | 23 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Zander Carter G | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Zander Yates F | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Ryan Jones Jr. F | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Drew Grimes F | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Torr Sorensen, Brady Kester, Isaiah Ihnen, JC Shirer Jr., TJ Drain
| LT | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Dudley G | 36 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 7-14 | 3-5 |
| Avery Thomas II F | 28 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 2-9 | 1-5 |
| AJ Bates G | 26 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 3-13 | 2-5 |
| Sir Issac Herron F | 23 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Kaden Cooper F | 16 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Scooter Williams G | 23 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3-12 | 1-5 |
| Will Allen F | 18 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Melian Martinez C | 13 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Jaylen Fenner G | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Kylan Howze F | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Keegan Rowell G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Will Jeffress, Jermaurhiyun Anderson, Lachlan Thompson, A'Meir Williams
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketLIB -4.5
ModelLIB -3.6
Model edgeLT +0.9
L LIB covered
Total
Market135.5
Model133.7
Model edgeUnder 1.8
W Under
Projected score
LIB 68.6 · LT 65.1
LIB 72 · LT 56
Win probability
LIB 62%
1st half
Spread
LIB -2.3
LIB -7.0
Total
62.7
61 points
Projected score
LIB 32.5 · LT 30.2
LIB 34 · LT 27
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLIB -5.5
1 → LT
CloseLIB -4.5
1 pt toward LT
Total
Open133.5
▲ 2
Close135.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
LIB -198 · LT +164
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LIB -5.5 · closed LIB -4.5 · moved 1 toward LTmodel LIB -3.5
model LIB -3.5
Opened 133.5 · closed 135.5 · moved 2 upmodel 133.5
model 133.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| LT | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
LIB 2–2 LTSeries tied · 4 games since 2021-22 · LIB 2-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2024-25 | LT 53 @ LIB 77 | LIB -7.5 | LIB W |
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | LIB 74 @ LT 79 | LT +1.5 | LT W |
| Feb 10, 2023-24 | LT 62 @ LIB 65 | LIB -2.5 | LIB W |
| Jan 14, 2023-24 | LIB 76 @ LT 80 | LT -2.5 | LT W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Liberty
11 games played
Straight up
8-3
73% wins
Against the spread
5-6
45% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-5
55% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | vs COFC | W 90-75 | -9.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 9 | vs FAU | W 88-68 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs UVM | W 79-73 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 141.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 25 | vs TOW | L 69-72 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 137.5 | O 141 |
| Nov 26 | vs BRAD | L 64-74 | -4.5 | L −14.5 | 144.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 6 | vs COPP | W 92-50 | -30.5 | W +11.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 10 | @ NCSU | L 45-85 | +12.5 | L −27.5 | 149.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 20 | @ DAY | W 64-61 | +9.5 | W +12.5 | 142.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 28 | @ FIU | W 97-94 | -4.5 | L −1.5 | 152.5 | O 191 |
| Jan 2 | vs KENN | W 81-73 | -7.5 | W +0.5 | 158.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 4 | vs JXST | W 78-69 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 134.5 | O 147 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
vsCOFC
COFCW 90-75
+5.5
9
vsFAU
FAUW 88-68
+12.5
24
vsUVM
UVMW 79-73
−2.5
25
vsTOW
TOWL 69-72
−9.5
26
vsBRAD
BRADL 64-74
−14.5
6
vsCOPP
COPPW 92-50
+11.5
10
@NCSU
NCSUL 45-85
−27.5
20
@DAY
DAYW 64-61
+12.5
28
@FIU
FIUW 97-94
−1.5
2
vsKENN
KENNW 81-73
+0.5
4
vsJXST
JXSTW 78-69
−0.5
covered 5didn’t cover 6avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
vsCOFC
COFCW 90-75
+19.5
9
vsFAU
FAUW 88-68
+3.5
24
vsUVM
UVMW 79-73
+10.5
25
vsTOW
TOWL 69-72
+3.5
26
vsBRAD
BRADL 64-74
−6.5
6
vsCOPP
COPPW 92-50
−1.5
10
@NCSU
NCSUL 45-85
−19.5
20
@DAY
DAYW 64-61
−17.5
28
@FIU
FIUW 97-94
+38.5
2
vsKENN
KENNW 81-73
−4.5
4
vsJXST
JXSTW 78-69
+12.5
over 6under 5avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Louisiana Tech
11 games played
Straight up
5-6
45% wins
Against the spread
5-6
45% covers · avg −2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-6
45% overs · avg −10.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | @ NEV | L 50-77 | +9.5 | L −17.5 | 136.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 15 | vs JKST | W 68-51 | -8.5 | W +8.5 | 146.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 19 | @ INST | L 51-60 | +3.5 | L −5.5 | 147.5 | U 111 |
| Nov 26 | vsINST | W 75-73 | -2.5 | L −0.5 | 141.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 29 | vs ALCN | W 83-58 | -16.5 | W +8.5 | 137.5 | O 141 |
| Dec 3 | @ GASO | L 69-77 | +1.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 13 | vs UL | W 65-44 | -9.5 | W +11.5 | 126.5 | U 109 |
| Dec 17 | @ TULN | L 53-61 | +4.5 | L −3.5 | 140.5 | U 114 |
| Dec 29 | vs UTEP | W 75-63 | -2.5 | W +9.5 | 130.5 | O 138 |
| Jan 2 | @ MTSU | L 51-88 | +6.5 | L −30.5 | 134.5 | O 139 |
| Jan 4 | @ WKU | L 61-66 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | U 127 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
@NEV
NEVL 50-77
−17.5
15
vsJKST
JKSTW 68-51
+8.5
19
@INST
INSTL 51-60
−5.5
26
vsINST
INSTW 75-73
−0.5
29
vsALCN
ALCNW 83-58
+8.5
3
@GASO
GASOL 69-77
−6.5
13
vsUL
ULW 65-44
+11.5
17
@TULN
TULNL 53-61
−3.5
29
vsUTEP
UTEPW 75-63
+9.5
2
@MTSU
MTSUL 51-88
−30.5
4
@WKU
WKUL 61-66
+4.5
covered 5didn’t cover 6avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
@NEV
NEVL 50-77
−9.5
15
vsJKST
JKSTW 68-51
−27.5
19
@INST
INSTL 51-60
−36.5
26
vsINST
INSTW 75-73
+6.5
29
vsALCN
ALCNW 83-58
+3.5
3
@GASO
GASOL 69-77
+0.5
13
vsUL
ULW 65-44
−17.5
17
@TULN
TULNL 53-61
−26.5
29
vsUTEP
UTEPW 75-63
+7.5
2
@MTSU
MTSUL 51-88
+4.5
4
@WKU
WKUL 61-66
−18.5
over 5under 6avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Liberty
8-3 overall · 3-0 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Jax State78–69
- Wvs Kennesaw St81–73
- W@ FIU97–94
- W@ Dayton64–61
- L@ NC State45–85
4 days since their last game.
Louisiana Tech
5-6 overall · 1-2 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Western KY61–66
- L@ MTSU51–88
- Wvs UTEP75–63
- L@ Tulane53–61
- Wvs Louisiana65–44
4 days since their last game.