When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2025 · North Carolina · pick one to list those games
42% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 20% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 33% of games.
All 12 games
2025 · North Carolina · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 14 |
NCSU -7 | 48.5 | 14384161 | Q4 | NCSU Q1 | 19–42 |
2025 · Week 13 |
DUKE -6.5 | 50.5 | 14274257 | Q4 | DUKE Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
32–25 |
2025 · Week 12 |
WAKE -3.5 | 37.5 | 7203040 | Q4 | WAKE Q1 Late over |
12–28 |
2025 · Week 11 |
UNC -8.5 | 41.5 | 361335 | U | STAN Q1 Late cover flip |
15–20 |
2025 · Week 10 |
SYR -1.5 | 45.5 | 10163037 | U | UNC Q3 | 27–10 |
2025 · Week 9 |
UVA -12.5 | 51.5 | 320202033 | U | UNC Q1 | 17–16 |
2025 · Week 8 |
CAL -8.5 | 47.5 | 21243139 | U | UNC Q4 | 18–21 |
2025 · Week 6 |
CLEM -15.5 | 47.5 | 31383848 | Q4 | CLEM Q1 | 38–10 |
2025 · Week 4 |
UCF -7.5 | 45.5 | 10233643 | U | UCF Q1 | 9–34 |
 RICH @  UNC2025 · Week 3 |
UNC -24.5 | 47.5 | 10233047 | U | UNC Q4 | 6–41 |
2025 · Week 2 |
UNC -16.5 | 49.5 | 10202023 | U | UNC Q4 | 20–3 |
2025 · Week 1 |
TCU -3.5 | 54.5 | 14275562 | Q3 | TCU Q2 | 48–14 |
NCSU
DUKE
WAKE
STAN
SYR
UVA
CAL
CLEM
UCF
CLT
TCUWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 6
Q2 8% 1
Q3 8% 1
Q4 33% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 90% and covered 80% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 82% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 5 | 80% 4 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.