When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
11 games · 2025 · New Mexico State · pick one to list those games
36% went over. Of the 4 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 27% of games.
All 11 games
2025 · New Mexico State · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 13 |
UTEP -4.5 | 45.5 | 21424865 | Q3 | NMSU Q2 | 34–31 |
2025 · Week 12 |
TENN -41.5 | 60.5 | 14244551 | U | NMSU Q1 | 9–42 |
2025 · Week 11 |
KENN -11.5 | 52.5 | 17313145 | U | NMSU Q4 | 24–21 |
2025 · Week 10 |
WKU -7.5 | 54.5 | 3203751 | U | WKU Q2 | 16–35 |
2025 · Week 9 |
MOST -2.5 | 51.5 | 714243441 | U | MOST OT | 24–17 |
2025 · Week 8 |
LIB -11.5 | 48.5 | 3264057 | Q4 | NMSU Q3 Lead lost |
27–30 |
2025 · Week 6 |
SHSU -1.5 | 53.5 | 0132347 | U | NMSU Q1 | 10–37 |
2025 · Week 5 |
UNM -17.5 | 53.5 | 14314158 | Q4 | UNM Q4 | 20–38 |
2025 · Week 3 |
LT -10.5 | 42.5 | 10414163 | Q4 | LT Q2 | 14–49 |
2025 · Week 2 |
TLSA -3.5 | 53.5 | 331735 | U | NMSU Q1 Lead lost |
14–21 |
 BRY @  NMSU2025 · Week 1 |
NMSU -19.5 | 52.5 | 9121222 | U | BRY Q1 | 3–19 |
UTEP
TENN
KENN
WKU
MOST
LIB
SHSU
UNM
LT
TLSAWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 36% 4
Q2 27% 3
Q3 9% 1
Q4 18% 2
OT 9% 1
The team leading at halftime won 89% and covered 44% of 9 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 67% of 9 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 5 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.