When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
11 games · 2025 · Middle Tennessee · pick one to list those games
45% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 40% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 55% of games.
All 11 games
2025 · Middle Tennessee · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 13 |
MTSU -6.5 | 53.5 | 10202748 | U | MTSU Q3 | 17–31 |
2025 · Week 12 |
WKU -13.5 | 51.5 | 7315168 | Q4 | WKU Q4 Late cover flip |
26–42 |
2025 · Week 11 |
MTSU -1.5 | 50.5 | 7385886 | Q3 | FIU Q2 | 56–30 |
2025 · Week 10 |
JXST -4.5 | 54.5 | 6132145 | U | MTSU Q1 Lead lost |
24–21 |
2025 · Week 9 |
DEL -9.5 | 55.5 | 21385259 | Q4 | MTSU Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
28–31 |
2025 · Week 7 |
MOST -2.5 | 52.5 | 3293242 | U | MTSU Q4 Lead lost |
22–20 |
2025 · Week 5 |
KENN -7.5 | 54.5 | 24313140 | U | KENN Q1 | 16–24 |
2025 · Week 4 |
MRSH -2.5 | 45.5 | 35414970 | Q3 | MRSH Q4 | 42–28 |
2025 · Week 3 |
NEV -9.5 | 49.5 | 0131327 | U | MTSU Q4 Lead lost |
14–13 |
2025 · Week 2 |
WIS -28.5 | 44.5 | 3243852 | Q4 | WIS Q4 | 10–42 |
 APSU @  MTSU2025 · Week 1 |
MTSU -16.5 | 53.5 | 14283848 | U | APSU Q1 | 34–14 |
SHSU
WKU
FIU
JXST
DEL
MOST
KENN
MRSH
NEV
WISWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 27% 3
Q2 9% 1
Q3 9% 1
Q4 55% 6
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 90% and covered 60% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 73% and covered 64% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 4 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.