When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
10 games · 2024 · Virginia · pick one to list those games
40% went over. Of the 4 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 30% of games.
All 10 games
2024 · Virginia · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 14 |
VT -4.5 | 44.5 | 10234154 | Q4 | VT Q1 | 17–37 |
2024 · Week 13 |
SMU -10.5 | 53.5 | 7172040 | U | SMU Q2 | 33–7 |
2024 · Week 12 |
ND -21.5 | 51.5 | 7284249 | U | UVA Q4 Late cover flip |
14–35 |
2024 · Week 11 |
PITT -7.5 | 56.5 | 0203443 | U | UVA Q1 | 24–19 |
2024 · Week 9 |
UVA -3.5 | 57.5 | 10304455 | U | UNC Q1 | 41–14 |
2024 · Week 8 |
CLEM -20.5 | 56.5 | 6274879 | Q4 | UVA Q4 Late cover flip |
31–48 |
2024 · Week 7 |
LOU -7.5 | 52.5 | 7143044 | U | UVA Q1 Lead lost |
24–20 |
2024 · Week 6 |
UVA -1.5 | 53.5 | 7202038 | U | UVA Q4 | 14–24 |
2024 · Week 4 |
UVA -3.5 | 52.5 | 17375467 | Q3 | UVA Q1 | 43–24 |
2024 · Week 2 |
UVA -1.5 | 55.5 | 13374761 | Q4 | WAKE Q1 Late over Lead lost |
31–30 |
UVA
VT
SMU
ND
PITT
UNC
CLEM
LOU
BC
CCU
WAKEWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 60% 6
Q2 10% 1
Q3 0% 0
Q4 30% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 67% and covered 56% of 9 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 80% and covered 60% of 10 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 4 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.