When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
11 games · 2024 · Maryland · pick one to list those games
82% went over. Of the 9 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 27% of games.
All 11 games
2024 · Maryland · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 14 |
PSU -26.5 | 50.5 | 10383851 | Q4 | PSU Q4 Late over |
7–44 |
2024 · Week 13 |
IOWA -4.5 | 39.5 | 3132542 | Q4 | IOWA Q2 Late over |
29–13 |
2024 · Week 12 |
MD -4.5 | 54.5 | 3243848 | U | RUTG Q1 | 31–17 |
2024 · Week 11 |
ORE -24 | 57.5 | 10313957 | U | MD Q1 | 18–39 |
2024 · Week 9 |
MINN -5.5 | 44.5 | 21445171 | Q3 | MINN Q1 | 23–48 |
2024 · Week 8 |
USC -6.5 | 55.5 | 7283557 | Q4 | MD Q4 Late over Lead lost |
28–29 |
2024 · Week 7 |
MD -10.5 | 44.5 | 7242447 | Q4 | NU Q1 Late over |
37–10 |
2024 · Week 5 |
IU -7.5 | 48.5 | 0214970 | Q3 | IU Q4 | 28–42 |
 VILL @  MD2024 · Week 4 |
MD -22.5 | 46.5 | 17244158 | Q4 | VILL Q3 Late cover flip |
20–38 |
2024 · Week 2 |
MD -7.5 | 44.5 | 21313451 | Q4 | MSU Q1 Late over Lead lost |
27–24 |
2024 · Week 1 |
MD -18.5 | 44.5 | 14234357 | Q4 | MD Q2 | 7–50 |
PSU
IOWA
RUTG
ORE
MINN
USC
NU
IU
MSU
CONNWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 45% 5
Q2 18% 2
Q3 9% 1
Q4 27% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 91% and covered 73% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 90% and covered 70% of 10 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 67% 2 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.