When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
11 games · 2024 · Kentucky · pick one to list those games
36% went over. Of the 4 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 9% of games.
All 11 games
2024 · Kentucky · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 14 |
LOU -3.5 | 48.5 | 7204155 | Q4 | LOU Q1 | 41–14 |
2024 · Week 13 |
TEX -18.5 | 46.5 | 7313845 | U | UK Q1 | 14–31 |
 MUR @  UK2024 · Week 12 |
UK -41.5 | 54.5 | 14243754 | U | UK Q4 Late cover flip |
6–48 |
2024 · Week 10 |
TENN -17.5 | 45.5 | 7173146 | Q4 | UK Q1 Late over |
18–28 |
2024 · Week 9 |
UK -1.5 | 42.5 | 10202734 | U | AUB Q2 | 24–10 |
2024 · Week 8 |
UK -2.5 | 41.5 | 3405468 | Q3 | FLA Q1 | 20–48 |
2024 · Week 7 |
UK -12.5 | 43.5 | 7212433 | U | VAN Q1 | 20–13 |
2024 · Week 5 |
MISS -15.5 | 51.5 | 10173037 | U | UK Q1 Lead lost |
20–17 |
2024 · Week 4 |
UK -21.5 | 41.5 | 3172747 | Q4 | UK Q3 Late over |
6–41 |
2024 · Week 3 |
UGA -21.5 | 44.5 | 391525 | U | UK Q1 | 13–12 |
2024 · Week 2 |
UK -9.5 | 41.5 | 7163037 | U | SC Q1 | 31–6 |
LOU
TEX
TENN
AUB
FLA
VAN
MISS
OHIO
UGA
SCWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 73% 8
Q2 9% 1
Q3 9% 1
Q4 9% 1
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 80% and covered 90% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 82% and covered 73% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.