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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

10 games · 2023 · Week 14 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games10100%By halftime00%In Q3110%In Q4330%In OT00%Stayed under660%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands00%Over cashed110%Leader lost the game00%
44% went over. Of the 4 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 30% of games.

All 10 games

2023 · Week 14 · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Week 14
 MICH -21.5 36 10102026 U MICH Q4 26–0
2023 · Week 14
 LOU PK 46 031322 U FSU Q2 6–16
2023 · Week 14
 UGA -5.5 53.5 10243051 U ALA Q1 24–27
2023 · Week 14
 TULN -2.5 47.5 14213140 U SMU Q1 26–14
2023 · Week 14
 TROY -5.5 52 0213872 Q4 TROY Q4 23–49
2023 · Week 14
 BOIS -2 61.5 21486164 Q4 BOIS Q1
Late over
 44–20
2023 · Week 14
 TEX -14.5 57.5 28495670 Q4 TEX Q2 21–49
2023 · Week 14
 TOL -6 43 10182737 U M-OH Q1 23–14
2023 · Week 14
 ORE -10 65 10304465 P WASH Q1 31–34
2023 · Week 14
 LIB -10 58 14427084 Q3 LIB Q4 35–49
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 5
Q2 20% 2
Q3 0% 0
Q4 30% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 100% and covered 100% of 9 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 78% and covered 78% of 9 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over1100% 1
1–32100% 2
15–17425% 1
22+30% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.