When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
11 games · 2023 · Western Kentucky · pick one to list those games
55% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 17% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 27% of games.
All 11 games
2023 · Western Kentucky · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
ODU -4.5 | 49.5 | 2135497073 | Q4 | WKU Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
38–35 |
2023 · Week 13 |
WKU -11 | 54 | 21415569 | Q3 | WKU Q1 | 41–28 |
2023 · Week 12 |
WKU -10 | 53 | 7374451 | U | SHSU Q1 | 23–28 |
2023 · Week 11 |
WKU -4.5 | 54 | 17384567 | Q4 | NMSU Q2 Late over |
38–29 |
2023 · Week 10 |
WKU -9.5 | 54 | 031734 | U | UTEP Q4 Late cover flip |
21–13 |
2023 · Week 9 |
LIB -4 | 61.5 | 14243171 | Q4 | LIB Q3 Late over |
42–29 |
2023 · Week 8 |
WKU -7.5 | 60.5 | 10272737 | U | JXST Q2 Lead lost |
17–20 |
2023 · Week 5 |
WKU -6.5 | 61 | 10263341 | U | WKU Q1 | 10–31 |
2023 · Week 4 |
TROY -4 | 58 | 7173451 | U | WKU Q4 Late cover flip |
24–27 |
2023 · Week 3 |
OSU -29.5 | 65 | 10525973 | Q4 | OSU Q2 | 10–63 |
 HCU @  WKU2023 · Week 2 |
WKU -41.5 | 64.5 | 24455274 | Q4 | HCU Q1 | 22–52 |
ODU
FIU
SHSU
NMSU
UTEP
LIB
JXST
MTSU
TROY
OSUWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 36% 4
Q2 27% 3
Q3 9% 1
Q4 27% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 64% and covered 45% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 73% and covered 55% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 22+ | 5 | 20% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.