When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
11 games · 2023 · Vanderbilt · pick one to list those games
73% went over. Of the 8 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 0% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.
All 11 games
2023 · Vanderbilt · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 13 |
TENN -28 | 57.5 | 21415572 | Q4 | VAN Q4 | 24–48 |
2023 · Week 11 |
SC -13.5 | 54 | 6132753 | U | SC Q3 | 6–47 |
2023 · Week 10 |
AUB -12.5 | 49.5 | 14244646 | U | AUB Q3 | 31–15 |
2023 · Week 9 |
MISS -24 | 62 | 13263340 | U | MISS Q4 | 7–33 |
2023 · Week 7 |
UGA -33.5 | 55.5 | 14313457 | Q4 | VAN Q1 Late over |
37–20 |
2023 · Week 5 |
MIZ -14 | 53.5 | 10243159 | Q4 | MIZ Q3 Late cover flip Late over |
38–21 |
2023 · Week 4 |
UK -13 | 50 | 21344473 | Q4 | UK Q1 | 45–28 |
2023 · Week 3 |
VAN -4.5 | 56.5 | 10374777 | Q4 | UNLV Q2 | 37–40 |
2023 · Week 2 |
WAKE -9.5 | 55 | 3384156 | Q4 | WAKE Q2 Late over |
20–36 |
 AAMU @  VAN2023 · Week 1 |
VAN -35 | 53.5 | 8153660 | Q4 | AAMU Q1 Late cover flip |
13–47 |
2023 · Week 1 |
VAN -17 | 54.5 | 21354263 | Q4 | HAW Q1 | 28–35 |
TENN
SC
AUB
MISS
UGA
MIZ
UK
UNLV
WAKE
HAWWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 36% 4
Q2 18% 2
Q3 27% 3
Q4 18% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 100% and covered 64% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 64% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 22+ | 4 | 50% 2 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.