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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

USC ✕

When did they go over?

11 games · 2023 · USC · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games11100%By halftime00%In Q3218%In Q4655%In OT00%Stayed under327%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands19%Over cashed19%Leader lost the game00%
73% went over. Of the 8 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 9% of games.

All 11 games

2023 · USC · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 LOU -5 58 14425670 Q4 USC Q1 28–42
2023 · Week 12
 USC -5 63 14244458 U UCLA Q1 38–20
2023 · Week 11
 ORE -17 78 20364363 U USC Q1 27–36
2023 · Week 10
 WASH -3 75.5 21638494 Q3 WASH Q4
Late cover flip
 52–42
2023 · Week 9
 USC -10 67.5 31456599 Q4 CAL Q1 50–49
2023 · Week 8
 USC -7 51.5 28284566 Q4 UTAH Q1 34–32
2023 · Week 7
 ND -3.5 60.5 10304468 Q4 ND Q1
Late over
 20–48
2023 · Week 5
 USC -22.5 74 14487589 Q3 COLO Q1 48–41
2023 · Week 4
 USC -34.5 62.5 21344870 Q4 ASU Q1 42–28
2023 · Week 2
 USC -28.5 70.5 21525266 U USC Q2 10–56
2023 · Week 1
 USC -30.5 63.5 7356384 Q4 SJSU Q1 28–56
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 82% 9
Q2 9% 1
Q3 0% 0
Q4 9% 1
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 90% and covered 60% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 90% and covered 60% of 10 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over2100% 2
1–33100% 3
4–71100% 1
15–172100% 2
18–2120% 0
22+10% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.