When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
11 games · 2023 · Southern Miss · pick one to list those games
82% went over. Of the 9 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.
All 11 games
2023 · Southern Miss · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 13 |
TROY -17 | 48 | 7244552 | Q4 | TROY Q4 | 35–17 |
2023 · Week 12 |
MSST -18 | 48 | 10233061 | Q4 | MSST Q4 Late cover flip |
20–41 |
2023 · Week 11 |
UL -7.5 | 52.5 | 728355665 | Q4 | USM Q1 Late over Lead lost |
34–31 |
2023 · Week 10 |
USM -3 | 55.5 | 17172431 | U | USM Q1 | 7–24 |
2023 · Week 9 |
APP -16 | 55.5 | 14385986 | Q3 | USM Q1 | 38–48 |
2023 · Week 8 |
USA -18.5 | 51 | 14315158 | Q4 | USA Q2 | 3–55 |
2023 · Week 5 |
TXST -6.5 | 60 | 31525886 | Q4 | TXST Q1 Late cover flip |
50–36 |
2023 · Week 4 |
USM -7 | 46.5 | 21376181 | Q3 | ARST Q1 | 37–44 |
2023 · Week 3 |
TULN -8 | 47.5 | 772424 | U | TULN Q3 | 21–3 |
2023 · Week 2 |
FSU -31 | 54 | 14346279 | Q3 | FSU Q3 | 13–66 |
 ALCN @  USM2023 · Week 1 |
USM -24 | 47.5 | 24344454 | Q4 | USM Q3 Late cover flip |
14–40 |
TROY
MSST
UL
ULM
APP
USA
TXST
ARST
TULN
FSUWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 45% 5
Q2 9% 1
Q3 27% 3
Q4 18% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 90% and covered 100% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 91% and covered 100% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.