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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

South Carolina ✕

When did they go over?

12 games · 2023 · South Carolina · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games12100%By halftime00%In Q3433%In Q418%In OT00%Stayed under758%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands18%Over cashed18%Leader lost the game18%
42% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 80% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 17% of games.

All 12 games

2023 · South Carolina · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Week 13
 CLEM -7.5 47.5 17202323 U CLEM Q3 16–7
2023 · Week 12
 SC -2 52 10172431 U SC Q4 14–17
2023 · Week 11
 SC -13.5 54 6132753 U SC Q3 6–47
2023 · Week 10
 SC -14 55 21355666 Q3 JXST Q1 28–38
2023 · Week 9
 TA&M -17 51.5 7283447 U SC Q1 17–30
2023 · Week 8
 MIZ -7.5 57.5 14273346 U MIZ Q1 12–34
2023 · Week 7
 SC -1.5 49.5 24455180 Q3 FLA Q2
Late cover flip Lead lost
 41–39
2023 · Week 5
 TENN -12 59 24344861 Q4 TENN Q2
Late over
 20–41
2023 · Week 4
 SC -6 47 7375467 Q3 SC Q4 30–37
2023 · Week 3
 UGA -26 54 10173138 U SC Q1 14–24
FUR @ SC
2023 · Week 2
 SC -18 52.5 14415468 Q3 SC Q3 21–47
2023 · Week 1
 UNC -2.5 63.5 14314548 U UNC Q2 31–17
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 33% 4
Q2 25% 3
Q3 25% 3
Q4 17% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 92% and covered 83% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 90% and covered 70% of 10 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over4100% 4
11–141100% 1
18–2120% 0
22+50% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.