When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
11 games · 2023 · South Alabama · pick one to list those games
45% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 40% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.
All 11 games
2023 · South Alabama · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
EMU -17.5 | 42.5 | 17416269 | Q3 | USA Q1 | 10–59 |
2023 · Week 13 |
USA -6 | 57 | 24486296 | Q3 | TXST Q1 | 44–52 |
2023 · Week 12 |
USA -10 | 45.5 | 14212128 | U | USA Q1 | 0–28 |
2023 · Week 11 |
USA -14 | 55 | 10172735 | U | ARST Q4 Late cover flip |
14–21 |
2023 · Week 10 |
TROY -7 | 43.5 | 7212138 | U | TROY Q4 Late cover flip |
10–28 |
2023 · Week 9 |
USA -11.5 | 55 | 0174753 | U | UL Q1 | 33–20 |
2023 · Week 8 |
USA -18.5 | 51 | 14315158 | Q4 | USA Q2 | 3–55 |
2023 · Week 5 |
JMU -1 | 48.5 | 14313454 | Q4 | JMU Q1 Late over |
23–31 |
2023 · Week 4 |
USA -16.5 | 46.5 | 14273764 | Q4 | CMU Q1 | 34–30 |
2023 · Week 3 |
OKST -7 | 49.5 | 10232340 | U | USA Q1 | 33–7 |
 SELA @  USA2023 · Week 2 |
USA -24 | 59.5 | 0142852 | U | SELA Q1 | 17–35 |
EMU
TXST
MRSH
ARST
TROY
UL
USM
JMU
CMU
OKSTWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 73% 8
Q2 9% 1
Q3 0% 0
Q4 18% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 90% and covered 80% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 82% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 22+ | 5 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.