When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
10 games · 2023 · Sam Houston · pick one to list those games
60% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 11% of games.
All 10 games
2023 · Sam Houston · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 13 |
MTSU -3.5 | 50.5 | 13192943 | U | SHSU Q2 | 20–23 |
2023 · Week 12 |
WKU -10 | 53 | 7374451 | U | SHSU Q1 | 23–28 |
2023 · Week 11 |
LT -7.5 | 49 | 10204869 | Q4 | SHSU Q1 | 42–27 |
2023 · Week 10 |
SHSU -16.5 | 42.5 | 14283545 | Q4 | KENN Q1 Late over Lead lost |
21–24 |
2023 · Week 9 |
SHSU -4 | 38.5 | 7344771 | Q3 | UTEP Q4 | 37–34 |
2023 · Week 8 |
SHSU -5.5 | 42 | 320274060 | OT | FIU Q1 Late over |
33–27 |
2023 · Week 7 |
NMSU -3.5 | 42.5 | 14273340 | U | NMSU Q1 | 13–27 |
2023 · Week 5 |
JXST -7 | 36 | 2128355663 | Q4 | Push Late cover flip Lead lost |
35–28 |
2023 · Week 4 |
HOU -11.5 | 37 | 17313845 | Q3 | HOU Q2 | 7–38 |
2023 · Week 2 |
AFA -13.5 | 36.5 | 03616 | U | SHSU Q1 | 13–3 |
MTSU
SHSU
WKU
LT
KENN
UTEP
FIU
NMSU
JXST
HOU
AFAWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 60% 6
Q2 20% 2
Q3 0% 0
Q4 10% 1
OT 0% 0
Push 10% 1
The team leading at halftime won 56% and covered 44% of 9 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 56% and covered 78% of 9 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.