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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Notre Dame ✕

When did they go over?

11 games · 2023 · Notre Dame · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games11100%By halftime00%In Q3218%In Q4764%In OT00%Stayed under218%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands218%Over cashed218%Leader lost the game218%
82% went over. Of the 9 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 30% of games.

All 11 games

2023 · Notre Dame · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 ND -5.5 40.5 7142448 Q4 ND Q1 8–40
2023 · Week 13
 ND -26 50 20446579 Q3 ND Q3 56–23
2023 · Week 12
 ND -24 47.5 7243852 Q4 ND Q4
Late over
 7–45
2023 · Week 10
 ND -3.5 43 13335454 Q3 CLEM Q1 23–31
2023 · Week 9
 ND -21 45.5 7174465 Q4 ND Q3 7–58
2023 · Week 7
 ND -3.5 60.5 10304468 Q4 ND Q1
Late over
 20–48
2023 · Week 5
 ND -5.5 52.5 7102035 U ND Q1
Late cover flip Lead lost
 21–14
2023 · Week 4
 OSU -3 55.5 031731 U Push
Late cover flip Lead lost
 17–14
2023 · Week 3
 ND -35 51 21354858 Q4 CMU Q1 17–41
2023 · Week 2
 ND -7 49.5 3244169 Q4 ND Q4 45–24
TNST @ ND
2023 · Week 1
 ND -48.5 55 10385259 Q4 ND Q4 3–56
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 45% 5
Q2 0% 0
Q3 18% 2
Q4 27% 3
OT 0% 0
Push 9% 1
The team leading at halftime won 100% and covered 82% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 82% of 11 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over2100% 2
1–31100% 1
4–72100% 2
8–102100% 2
15–172100% 2
22+20% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.