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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

New Mexico ✕

When did they go over?

12 games · 2023 · New Mexico · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games12100%By halftime00%In Q3433%In Q4542%In OT00%Stayed under325%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands18%Over cashed325%Leader lost the game00%
75% went over. Of the 9 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 44% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 25% of games.

All 12 games

2023 · New Mexico · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Week 13
 USU -5 59 2131456285 Q4 UNM Q2
Late cover flip Late over
 44–41
2023 · Week 12
 FRES -22 58 10263242 U UNM Q1 25–17
2023 · Week 11
 BOIS -27.5 58.5 22465356 U BOIS Q4 14–42
2023 · Week 10
 UNLV -14.5 58 14425670 Q4 UNLV Q2 56–14
2023 · Week 9
 UNM PK 50 3243758 Q4 NEV Q1 24–34
2023 · Week 8
 HAW -1.5 60 21424963 Q4 UNM Q1
Late over
 21–42
2023 · Week 7
 SJSU -6.5 53.5 3315576 Q3 SJSU Q3 52–24
2023 · Week 5
 WYO -14.5 40.5 15214161 Q3 UNM Q4 26–35
2023 · Week 4
 MASS -3 49 1442455665 Q4 UNM Q1
Late over
 34–31
2023 · Week 3
 UNM -2.5 52 3273044 U NMSU Q2 27–17
TNTC @ UNM
2023 · Week 2
 UNM -16 51.5 14385966 Q3 UNM Q2 10–56
2023 · Week 1
 TA&M -37.5 48.5 7425262 Q3 TA&M Q4 10–52
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 33% 4
Q2 33% 4
Q3 8% 1
Q4 25% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 83% and covered 67% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 83% of 12 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over4100% 4
1–31100% 1
4–7250% 1
11–142100% 2
15–171100% 1
22+20% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.