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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Nevada ✕

When did they go over?

11 games · 2023 · Nevada · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games11100%By halftime00%In Q319%In Q4436%In OT00%Stayed under655%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands00%Over cashed00%Leader lost the game00%
45% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 20% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 0% of games.

All 11 games

2023 · Nevada · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Week 13
 WYO -11.5 41.5 14274148 Q4 WYO Q1 42–6
2023 · Week 12
 CSU -12 45 17334350 Q4 NEV Q1 20–30
2023 · Week 11
 USU -15 54.5 14344465 Q4 USU Q3 24–41
2023 · Week 10
 NEV -3 50 0173841 U HAW Q1 27–14
2023 · Week 9
 UNM PK 50 3243758 Q4 NEV Q1 24–34
2023 · Week 8
 SDSU -11 48.5 3666 U NEV Q1 6–0
2023 · Week 7
 UNLV -7.5 51.5 21355272 Q3 UNLV Q2 45–27
2023 · Week 5
 FRES -25.5 50.5 7142036 U NEV Q1 9–27
2023 · Week 4
 TXST -17 60 10173859 U NEV Q1 24–35
2023 · Week 3
 KU -28.5 58 7204155 U NEV Q1 31–24
IDHO @ NEV
2023 · Week 2
 IDHO -5.5 51 17233339 U IDHO Q1 33–6
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 82% 9
Q2 9% 1
Q3 9% 1
Q4 0% 0
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 90% and covered 80% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 64% of 11 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over1100% 1
1–32100% 2
11–14367% 2
18–2120% 0
22+30% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.