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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Missouri ✕

When did they go over?

12 games · 2023 · Missouri · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games12100%By halftime00%In Q300%In Q4758%In OT00%Stayed under542%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands18%Over cashed325%Leader lost the game00%
58% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 0% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 8% of games.

All 12 games

2023 · Missouri · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 OSU -4 50.5 33317 U MIZ Q1 14–3
2023 · Week 13
 MIZ -10 54 10204162 Q4 MIZ Q2 48–14
2023 · Week 12
 MIZ -12.5 56.5 10204464 Q4 FLA Q1 31–33
2023 · Week 11
 TENN -2 59 0202943 U MIZ Q1 7–36
2023 · Week 10
 UGA -14 54 10203751 U MIZ Q1 21–30
2023 · Week 8
 MIZ -7.5 57.5 14273346 U MIZ Q1 12–34
2023 · Week 7
 UK -2.5 50.5 14314159 Q4 MIZ Q2 38–21
2023 · Week 5
 MIZ -14 53.5 10243159 Q4 MIZ Q3
Late cover flip Late over
 38–21
2023 · Week 4
 MIZ -6.5 52 17274161 Q4 MIZ Q2
Late over
 27–34
2023 · Week 3
 KSU -3.5 48 17314157 Q4 MIZ Q4 27–30
2023 · Week 2
 MIZ -21 47.5 3172642 U MTSU Q1 19–23
SDAK @ MIZ
2023 · Week 1
 MIZ -27 44.5 14313145 Q4 SDAK Q1
Late over
 10–35
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 58% 7
Q2 25% 3
Q3 8% 1
Q4 8% 1
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 91% and covered 64% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 75% and covered 42% of 12 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
8–102100% 2
11–144100% 4
18–2110% 0
22+520% 1
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.