When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
11 games · 2023 · Middle Tennessee · pick one to list those games
45% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 40% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 0% of games.
All 11 games
2023 · Middle Tennessee · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 13 |
MTSU -3.5 | 50.5 | 13192943 | U | SHSU Q2 | 20–23 |
2023 · Week 12 |
MTSU -8.5 | 48 | 21455564 | Q3 | UTEP Q1 | 30–34 |
2023 · Week 11 |
MTSU -10.5 | 51.5 | 17373746 | U | MTSU Q1 | 6–40 |
2023 · Week 10 |
NMSU -3 | 55.5 | 0172020 | U | NMSU Q3 | 7–13 |
2023 · Week 8 |
LIB -16 | 56.5 | 28427077 | Q3 | MTSU Q1 | 35–42 |
2023 · Week 7 |
MTSU -3 | 53.5 | 16264054 | Q4 | MTSU Q1 Late over |
23–31 |
2023 · Week 6 |
MTSU -2.5 | 52 | 3304775 | Q4 | JXST Q3 | 45–30 |
2023 · Week 5 |
WKU -6.5 | 61 | 10263341 | U | WKU Q1 | 10–31 |
2023 · Week 4 |
MTSU -3.5 | 50 | 20273454 | Q4 | CSU Q3 | 31–23 |
 MUR @  MTSU2023 · Week 3 |
MTSU -34.5 | 51 | 14283549 | U | MUR Q1 | 14–35 |
2023 · Week 2 |
MIZ -21 | 47.5 | 3172642 | U | MTSU Q1 | 19–23 |
SHSU
UTEP
FIU
NMSU
LIB
LT
JXST
WKU
CSU
MIZWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 64% 7
Q2 9% 1
Q3 27% 3
Q4 0% 0
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 70% and covered 40% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 67% of 9 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 22+ | 4 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.