When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
11 games · 2023 · Michigan State · pick one to list those games
45% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 0% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 10% of games.
All 11 games
2023 · Michigan State · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 13 |
PSU -22.5 | 43 | 3132842 | U | PSU Q3 | 42–0 |
2023 · Week 12 |
IU -3.5 | 47 | 7212845 | U | MSU Q1 | 24–21 |
2023 · Week 11 |
OSU -32.5 | 48.5 | 14384141 | U | OSU Q3 | 3–38 |
2023 · Week 10 |
NEB -3 | 35.5 | 3202337 | Q4 | MSU Q1 Late over |
17–20 |
2023 · Week 9 |
MINN -6.5 | 41.5 | 6161639 | U | MINN Q4 Late cover flip |
12–27 |
2023 · Week 8 |
MICH -25.5 | 46.5 | 14284249 | Q4 | MICH Q2 Late over |
49–0 |
2023 · Week 7 |
RUTG -3.5 | 38.5 | 10233051 | Q4 | MSU Q1 | 24–27 |
2023 · Week 5 |
IOWA -10 | 36.5 | 6192942 | Q4 | Push Late cover flip Late over |
16–26 |
2023 · Week 4 |
MD -7 | 51.5 | 7243040 | U | MD Q2 | 31–9 |
2023 · Week 3 |
WASH -15 | 57 | 14354148 | U | WASH Q2 | 41–7 |
 RICH @  MSU2023 · Week 2 |
MSU -29 | 44.5 | 7173859 | Q4 | MSU Q3 | 14–45 |
PSU
IU
OSU
NEB
MINN
MICH
RUTG
IOWA
MD
WASHWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 27% 3
Q2 27% 3
Q3 27% 3
Q4 9% 1
OT 0% 0
Push 9% 1
The team leading at halftime won 90% and covered 90% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 80% and covered 90% of 10 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.