1. Home
  2. Research
  3. Game flow
Research · College

College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

LSU ✕

When did they go over?

11 games · 2023 · LSU · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games11100%By halftime00%In Q3327%In Q4764%In OT00%Stayed under19%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands19%Over cashed436%Leader lost the game218%
91% went over. Of the 10 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 30% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 36% of games.

All 11 games

2023 · LSU · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 LSU -9.5 60 14355966 Q4 WIS Q1
Late over Lead lost
 31–35
2023 · Week 13
 LSU -13 67 7314572 Q4 TA&M Q1
Late over
 30–42
2023 · Week 12
 LSU -32.5 74 21495670 U LSU Q4 14–56
2023 · Week 11
 LSU -16.5 68 14316687 Q4 LSU Q4
Late cover flip
 35–52
2023 · Week 10
 ALA -3 61 21426370 Q3 ALA Q3 28–42
2023 · Week 8
 LSU -33 60 14384862 Q4 LSU Q2
Late over
 0–62
2023 · Week 7
 LSU -10.5 58.5 17274466 Q4 LSU Q1 18–48
2023 · Week 5
 LSU -3 67 285976104 Q3 MISS Q4
Lead lost
 49–55
2023 · Week 4
 LSU -17.5 55 3234065 Q4 ARK Q1 31–34
2023 · Week 3
 LSU -9.5 54 10314155 Q4 LSU Q1
Late over
 41–14
GRAM @ LSU
2023 · Week 2
 LSU -56.5 61.5 24526682 Q3 LSU Q4 10–72
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 45% 5
Q2 9% 1
Q3 9% 1
Q4 36% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 70% and covered 100% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 73% and covered 82% of 11 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over3100% 3
1–32100% 2
11–142100% 2
15–172100% 2
18–2110% 0
22+1100% 1
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.