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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Florida State ✕

When did they go over?

12 games · 2023 · Florida State · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games12100%By halftime00%In Q3217%In Q4433%In OT00%Stayed under650%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands325%Over cashed18%Leader lost the game00%
50% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 33% of games.

All 12 games

2023 · Florida State · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 UGA -23.5 47 7455966 Q3 UGA Q2 63–3
2023 · Week 14
 LOU PK 46 031322 U FSU Q2 6–16
2023 · Week 13
 FSU -6.5 49 0192939 U FSU Q4
Late cover flip
 24–15
UNA @ FSU
2023 · Week 12
 FSU -47.5 62 13375171 Q4 UNA Q1
Late over
 13–58
2023 · Week 11
 FSU -14.5 50.5 7203347 U MIA Q1 20–27
2023 · Week 10
 FSU -20.5 49.5 0173131 U PITT Q1 24–7
2023 · Week 9
 FSU -21 53.5 10415057 Q4 FSU Q4 41–16
2023 · Week 8
 FSU -14 48.5 17373758 Q4 FSU Q4
Late cover flip
 20–38
2023 · Week 7
 FSU -19.5 53.5 7202744 U FSU Q3 3–41
2023 · Week 4
 FSU -2 56 331484855 U FSU OT
Late cover flip
 31–24
2023 · Week 3
 FSU -25.5 48 10274760 Q4 BC Q1 31–29
2023 · Week 2
 FSU -31 54 14346279 Q3 FSU Q3 13–66
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 33% 4
Q2 17% 2
Q3 17% 2
Q4 25% 3
OT 8% 1
The team leading at halftime won 73% and covered 45% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 82% and covered 45% of 11 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over2100% 2
1–31100% 1
4–71100% 1
8–1010% 0
11–142100% 2
18–2130% 0
22+20% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.