When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2023 · East Carolina · pick one to list those games
33% went over. Of the 4 overs, 50% had cashed by halftime and 75% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 17% of games.
All 12 games
2023 · East Carolina · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 13 |
ECU -3 | 43.5 | 27445056 | Q2 | TLSA Q3 Lead lost |
29–27 |
2023 · Week 12 |
NAVY -2.5 | 30.5 | 77710 | U | NAVY Q1 | 0–10 |
2023 · Week 11 |
FAU -7.5 | 44.5 | 7202029 | U | ECU Q1 | 22–7 |
2023 · Week 10 |
TULN -17 | 44.5 | 10202023 | U | ECU Q1 | 13–10 |
2023 · Week 9 |
UTSA -17.5 | 48 | 31515468 | Q2 | ECU Q1 Late cover flip |
27–41 |
2023 · Week 8 |
ECU -6 | 39.5 | 331017 | U | CLT Q1 | 10–7 |
2023 · Week 7 |
SMU -11.5 | 49 | 14242441 | U | SMU Q4 | 31–10 |
2023 · Week 5 |
RICE -3.5 | 46 | 6192641 | U | RICE Q3 | 17–24 |
 GWEB @  ECU2023 · Week 4 |
ECU -12.5 | 51.5 | 13233044 | U | ECU Q1 | 0–44 |
2023 · Week 3 |
APP -7.5 | 48.5 | 17376471 | Q3 | APP Q3 | 28–43 |
2023 · Week 2 |
MRSH -3 | 43.5 | 0202344 | Q4 | MRSH Q4 | 31–13 |
2023 · Week 1 |
MICH -34 | 51.5 | 7233033 | U | ECU Q1 | 3–30 |
TLSA
NAVY
FAU
TULN
UTSA
CLT
SMU
RICE
APP
MRSH
MICHWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 58% 7
Q2 0% 0
Q3 25% 3
Q4 17% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 80% and covered 60% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 91% and covered 73% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 22+ | 7 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.