When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
11 games · 2023 · Clemson · pick one to list those games
55% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.
All 11 games
2023 · Clemson · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
CLEM -3.5 | 44 | 10243173 | Q4 | UK Q1 Lead lost |
38–35 |
2023 · Week 13 |
CLEM -7.5 | 47.5 | 17202323 | U | CLEM Q3 | 16–7 |
2023 · Week 12 |
CLEM -7.5 | 59.5 | 7214251 | U | CLEM Q3 | 20–31 |
2023 · Week 11 |
CLEM -14.5 | 54.5 | 7283563 | Q4 | CLEM Q3 | 21–42 |
2023 · Week 10 |
ND -3.5 | 43 | 13335454 | Q3 | CLEM Q1 | 23–31 |
2023 · Week 9 |
CLEM -10 | 44.5 | 7173141 | U | NCSU Q1 | 17–24 |
2023 · Week 8 |
CLEM -6 | 45 | 714243448 | OT | MIA Q4 Late over Lead lost |
20–28 |
2023 · Week 5 |
CLEM -7 | 52 | 21283145 | U | CLEM Q2 | 31–14 |
2023 · Week 4 |
FSU -2 | 56 | 331484855 | U | FSU OT Late cover flip |
31–24 |
2023 · Week 3 |
CLEM -24.5 | 51.5 | 20344162 | Q4 | CLEM Q2 | 14–48 |
 CHSO @  CLEM2023 · Week 2 |
CLEM -50.5 | 54.5 | 28416983 | Q3 | CHSO Q1 | 17–66 |
UK
SC
UNC
GT
ND
NCSU
MIA
SYR
FSU
FAUWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 36% 4
Q2 18% 2
Q3 27% 3
Q4 9% 1
OT 9% 1
The team leading at halftime won 80% and covered 80% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 80% and covered 80% of 10 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 22+ | 3 | 33% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.