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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

California ✕

When did they go over?

11 games · 2023 · California · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games11100%By halftime19%In Q300%In Q4436%In OT00%Stayed under655%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands00%Over cashed00%Leader lost the game00%
45% went over. Of the 5 overs, 20% had cashed by halftime and 20% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.

All 11 games

2023 · California · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 TTU -3.5 54.5 21384548 U TTU Q2 14–34
2023 · Week 13
 UCLA -9.5 50.5 6272740 U CAL Q1 33–7
2023 · Week 12
 CAL -6.5 53 10203642 U CAL Q4 27–15
2023 · Week 11
 CAL -2 60 21495281 Q4 CAL Q1 39–42
2023 · Week 10
 ORE -26.5 61 24486182 Q4 ORE Q4 19–63
2023 · Week 9
 USC -10 67.5 31456599 Q4 CAL Q1 50–49
2023 · Week 7
 UTAH -9.5 43.5 7213848 Q4 UTAH Q3 14–34
2023 · Week 5
 CAL -13 47.5 14173045 U ASU Q1 21–24
2023 · Week 4
 WASH -20.5 55.5 30577191 Q2 WASH Q2 32–59
IDHO @ CAL
2023 · Week 3
 CAL -14.5 52.5 10314548 U IDHO Q1 17–31
2023 · Week 2
 AUB -5 55.5 3171724 U CAL Q1 14–10
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 55% 6
Q2 18% 2
Q3 9% 1
Q4 18% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 73% and covered 91% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 82% and covered 82% of 11 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over1100% 1
1–32100% 2
4–71100% 1
8–10333% 1
18–2120% 0
22+20% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.