When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
11 games · 2023 · Buffalo · pick one to list those games
36% went over. Of the 4 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 50% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.
All 11 games
2023 · Buffalo · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 13 |
BUFF -5.5 | 37.5 | 7243235 | U | EMU Q1 | 24–11 |
2023 · Week 12 |
M-OH -7.5 | 37 | 0132333 | U | M-OH Q4 | 10–23 |
2023 · Week 11 |
OHIO -9 | 45 | 031330 | U | OHIO Q4 Late cover flip |
20–10 |
2023 · Week 10 |
TOL -15.5 | 49.5 | 21314444 | U | TOL Q2 | 13–31 |
2023 · Week 8 |
BUFF -6.5 | 44 | 13202330 | U | BUFF Q2 | 24–6 |
2023 · Week 7 |
BUFF -2.5 | 44.5 | 17313838 | U | BGSU Q1 | 24–14 |
2023 · Week 5 |
AKR -3 | 53 | 717202023 | U | BUFF Q3 | 13–10 |
2023 · Week 4 |
UL -10.5 | 57.5 | 7105283 | Q4 | BUFF Q1 Late cover flip |
38–45 |
2023 · Week 3 |
LIB -2.5 | 54 | 10386282 | Q3 | LIB Q1 | 55–27 |
 FOR @  BUFF2023 · Week 2 |
BUFF -23.5 | 54.5 | 17415677 | Q3 | FOR Q1 Lead lost |
40–37 |
2023 · Week 1 |
WIS -29 | 52.5 | 14243855 | Q4 | BUFF Q1 | 17–38 |
EMU
M-OH
OHIO
TOL
KENT
BGSU
AKR
UL
LIB
WISWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 55% 6
Q2 18% 2
Q3 9% 1
Q4 18% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 73% and covered 55% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 90% and covered 70% of 10 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 4 | 25% 1 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.