When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
11 games · 2023 · Ball State · pick one to list those games
36% went over. Of the 4 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 50% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 30% of games.
All 11 games
2023 · Ball State · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 13 |
M-OH -3.5 | 34.5 | 13262932 | U | BALL Q4 Late cover flip |
17–15 |
2023 · Week 12 |
BALL -10.5 | 43.5 | 3163037 | U | BALL Q3 | 3–34 |
2023 · Week 11 |
NIU -9 | 44 | 7202037 | U | BALL Q1 Lead lost |
20–17 |
2023 · Week 10 |
BGSU -5 | 40 | 7212845 | Q4 | BALL Q3 | 21–24 |
2023 · Week 8 |
CMU -5 | 42 | 10132741 | U | BALL Q1 | 17–24 |
2023 · Week 7 |
TOL -17.5 | 48.5 | 36619 | U | BALL Q1 | 13–6 |
2023 · Week 5 |
WMU -1.5 | 50 | 10385266 | Q3 | WMU Q1 | 24–42 |
2023 · Week 4 |
GASO -5.5 | 60 | 14233343 | U | GASO Q1 | 40–3 |
 INST @  BALL2023 · Week 3 |
BALL -27 | 44.5 | 0102452 | Q4 | BALL Q4 | 7–45 |
2023 · Week 2 |
UGA -42 | 52.5 | 0314548 | U | Push | 3–45 |
2023 · Week 1 |
UK -25 | 49 | 10305158 | Q3 | UK Q4 Late cover flip |
14–44 |
M-OH
KENT
NIU
BGSU
CMU
TOL
WMU
GASO
UGA
UKWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 45% 5
Q2 0% 0
Q3 18% 2
Q4 27% 3
OT 0% 0
Push 9% 1
The team leading at halftime won 100% and covered 67% of 9 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 75% of 8 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.