When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
11 games · 2023 · Arkansas State · pick one to list those games
45% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 60% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.
All 11 games
2023 · Arkansas State · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
ARST -2.5 | 53.5 | 20343440 | U | NIU Q1 | 19–21 |
2023 · Week 13 |
MRSH -1.5 | 52.5 | 14354956 | Q4 | MRSH Q1 Late over |
21–35 |
2023 · Week 12 |
TXST -3 | 60 | 245287108 | Q3 | ARST Q1 | 31–77 |
2023 · Week 11 |
USA -14 | 55 | 10172735 | U | ARST Q4 Late cover flip |
14–21 |
2023 · Week 10 |
UL -7 | 61 | 21304454 | U | ARST Q1 | 17–37 |
2023 · Week 9 |
ULM -1 | 55.5 | 10193358 | Q4 | ARST Q1 Late over |
34–24 |
2023 · Week 8 |
CCU -8.5 | 59 | 3202744 | U | CCU Q4 | 27–17 |
2023 · Week 5 |
MASS -2.5 | 55.5 | 17416580 | Q3 | ARST Q1 | 52–28 |
2023 · Week 4 |
USM -7 | 46.5 | 21376181 | Q3 | ARST Q1 | 37–44 |
 STBK @  ARST2023 · Week 3 |
ARST -23 | 48 | 17172438 | U | ARST Q3 | 7–31 |
2023 · Week 2 |
MEM -21 | 57.5 | 3273440 | U | MEM Q3 | 37–3 |
NIU
MRSH
TXST
USA
UL
ULM
CCU
MASS
USM
MEMWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 64% 7
Q2 0% 0
Q3 18% 2
Q4 18% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 100% and covered 91% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 91% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 5 | 20% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.