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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Alabama ✕

When did they go over?

12 games · 2023 · Alabama · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games12100%By halftime00%In Q3433%In Q4433%In OT18%Stayed under325%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands18%Over cashed217%Leader lost the game217%
75% went over. Of the 9 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 44% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 33% of games.

All 12 games

2023 · Alabama · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 MICH -2 46 1423234047 OT MICH OT
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 20–27
2023 · Week 14
 UGA -5.5 53.5 10243051 U ALA Q1 24–27
2023 · Week 13
 ALA -13.5 47.5 14314151 Q4 AUB Q1
Late over Lead lost
 27–24
UTC @ ALA
2023 · Week 12
 ALA -44.5 54.5 21456276 Q3 ALA Q4 10–66
2023 · Week 11
 ALA -11.5 47 28354970 Q3 ALA Q1 49–21
2023 · Week 10
 ALA -3 61 21426370 Q3 ALA Q3 28–42
2023 · Week 8
 ALA -8.5 47.5 13274454 Q4 ALA Q4 20–34
2023 · Week 7
 ALA -19.5 44.5 13273745 Q4 ARK Q1 21–24
2023 · Week 5
 ALA -16.5 45 14415157 Q3 ALA Q2 40–17
2023 · Week 4
 ALA -7 56 10132734 U ALA Q4 10–24
2023 · Week 3
 ALA -34.5 61 361320 U USF Q1 17–3
2023 · Week 2
 ALA -7 53.5 3192958 Q4 TEX Q1 34–24
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 6
Q2 8% 1
Q3 8% 1
Q4 25% 3
OT 8% 1
The team leading at halftime won 80% and covered 60% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 75% of 12 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over4100% 4
4–72100% 2
8–101100% 1
22+540% 2
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.