When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
874 games · 2024 · pick one to list those games
52% went over. Of the 457 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 35% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.
Went over in overtime: 10 games
2024 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
TEX -13.5 | 52.5 | 1720254870 | OT | ASU Q3 Late over |
39–31 |
2024 · Postseason |
USF -0.5 | 64.5 | 731415480 | OT | USF OT Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
41–39 |
2024 · Postseason |
NIU -2.5 | 40.5 | 1616262648 | OT | NIU OT Late cover flip Late over |
28–20 |
2024 · Week 14 |
JMU -2.5 | 52.5 | 1417344868 | OT | MRSH Q3 Late over |
35–33 |
2024 · Week 10 |
PUR -3.5 | 44.5 | 1327304046 | OT | NU Q1 Late over |
26–20 |
2024 · Week 9 |
SMU -11.5 | 50.5 | 721344255 | OT | DUKE Q1 Late over |
28–27 |
2024 · Week 8 |
LT -12.5 | 48.5 | 024314863 | OT | NMSU Q1 Late over |
30–33 |
2024 · Week 4 |
MIZ -18.5 | 52.5 | 1423404057 | OT | VAN Q1 Late over |
27–30 |
2024 · Week 4 |
NIU -12.5 | 42.5 | 717244043 | OT | BUFF Q1 Late over |
23–20 |
2024 · Week 2 |
NU -2.5 | 37.5 | 1017202646 | OT | DUKE Q3 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
26–20 |
TEX
ASU
USF
SJSU
NIU
FRES
MRSH
JMU
NU
PUR
SMU
DUKE
LT
NMSU
VAN
MIZ
BUFFWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 53% 459
Q2 16% 139
Q3 14% 118
Q4 18% 153
OT 1% 5
The team leading at halftime won 83% and covered 72% of 812 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 87% and covered 73% of 828 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 160 | 100% 160 |
| 1–3 | 45 | 89% 40 |
| 4–7 | 72 | 88% 63 |
| 8–10 | 64 | 75% 48 |
| 11–14 | 93 | 57% 53 |
| 15–17 | 87 | 47% 41 |
| 18–21 | 108 | 31% 33 |
| 22+ | 245 | 8% 19 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.