Leonard E. Merrell Center · Neutral site
Closing line
NMSU -2.5✓ USA covered by 4.5
NMSU -2.5✓ USA covered by 4.5Closing total135.5Over by 16.5
| NMSU | This season | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | Record | 6-1 |
| 4-0 | ATS | 3-4 |
| 2-2 | O/U | 4-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NMSU 71–66 USA · ✗ NMSU (66%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NMSU | 36 | 39 | 75 |
| USA | 32 | 45 | 77 |
1st half: NMSU 36, USA 32 (NMSU by 4). The model had NMSU by 3.0 and a total of 64.2 (actual 68).
Team stats
| NMSU | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-66 42% | Field goals | 20-45 44% |
| 9-37 24% | 3-pointers | 5-13 38% |
| 10-13 77% | Free throws | 32-39 82% |
| 41 18 off | Rebounds | 27 5 off |
| 18 | Assists | 12 |
| 6 | Steals | 9 |
| 3 | Blocks | 3 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 25 | Fouls | 14 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 14 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| NMSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jemel Jones G | 30 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 7-16 | 1-7 |
| Anthony Wrzeszcz G | 25 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Gabe Pickens G | 21 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1-5 | 0-4 |
| Julius Mims F | 18 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Cyr Malonga C | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jayland Randall G | 27 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 8-17 | 2-9 |
| Jae'Coby Osborne F | 20 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Elijah Elliott G | 17 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Augustine Ekwe C | 13 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Kyrese Mullen F | 10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Chris Terrell G | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Omarr Smith, Amarco Doyle, Teysean Eaglestaff, Christian Villegas
| USA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Olsen F | 39 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 6-10 | 3-6 |
| Peyton Law F | 35 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 6-13 | 0-0 |
| Randy Brady F | 34 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Jayden Cooper G | 31 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Chaze Harris G | 29 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Brian Hawthorne G | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| JJ Wheat G | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Hantz Louis-Jeune G | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Stephen Williams F | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Desmond Williams, Samuel Shoptaw, Maxwell Land, John Broom
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketNMSU -2.5
ModelNMSU -4.7
Model edgeNMSU +2.2
L USA covered
Total
Market135.5
Model137.1
Model edgeOver 1.6
W Over
Projected score
NMSU 70.9 · USA 66.2
NMSU 75 · USA 77
Win probability
NMSU 66%
1st half
Spread
NMSU -3.0
NMSU -4.0
Total
64.2
68 points
Projected score
NMSU 33.6 · USA 30.6
NMSU 36 · USA 32
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNMSU -1.5
1 → NMSU
CloseNMSU -2.5
1 pt toward NMSU
Total
Open134.5
▲ 1
Close135.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
NMSU -155 · USA +130
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NMSU -1.5 · closed NMSU -2.5 · moved 1 toward NMSUmodel NMSU -4.5
model NMSU -4.5
Opened 134.5 · closed 135.5 · moved 1 upmodel 137
model 137
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NMSUlast 4 | 4-0 100% | 4-0 100% | 2-2 50% |
| USAlast 7 | 6-1 86% | 3-4 43% | 4-3 57% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
New Mexico St
4 games played
Straight up
4-0
100% wins
Against the spread
4-0
100% covers · avg +8.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-2
50% overs · avg −6.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
15
vs
UNM
UNMW 76-68
+11.5
21
vs
SAM
SAMW 81-72
+0.5
25
vs
UCI
UCIW 57-45
+14.5
26
vs
GAST
GASTW 77-58
+6.5
covered 4didn’t cover 0avg +8.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
15
vsUNM
UNMW 76-68
+4.5
21
vsSAM
SAMW 81-72
+7.5
25
vsUCI
UCIW 57-45
−37.5
26
vsGAST
GASTW 77-58
−1.5
over 2under 2avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
South Alabama
7 games played
Straight up
6-1
86% wins
Against the spread
3-4
43% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
TOL
TOLW 76-74
+4.5
6
vs
ALCN
ALCNW 76-70
−12.5
13
vs
CMU
CMUW 66-64
−3.5
15
vs
COPP
COPPW 72-62
−8.5
19
@
JXST
JXSTW 71-65
+8.5
21
@
UAB
UABL 72-80
−0.5
30
@
UTSA
UTSAW 82-58
+22.5
covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@TOL
TOLW 76-74
−0.5
6
vsALCN
ALCNW 76-70
+4.5
13
vsCMU
CMUW 66-64
−12.5
15
vsCOPP
COPPW 72-62
+0.5
19
@JXST
JXSTW 71-65
+0.5
21
@UAB
UABL 72-80
+2.5
30
@UTSA
UTSAW 82-58
−1.5
over 4under 3avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
New Mexico St
4-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Georgia St77–58
- Wvs UC Irvine57–45
- Wvs Samford81–72
- Wvs New Mexico76–68
6 days since their last game.
South Alabama
6-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ UTSA82–58
- L@ UAB72–80
- W@ Jax State71–65
- Wvs Coppin St72–62
- Wvs C Michigan66–64
2 days since their last game.