Delaware State Hornets at North Carolina Central Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 24, 4:30 PM ETMcDougald-McLendon Arena · at NC Central · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Delaware St and NC Central
DSU	This season	NCCU
2-13	Record	3-12
6-9	ATS	9-6
4-11	O/U	7-8

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NCCU 72–67 · win probability NCCU 67%

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 139.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NCCU has more of the edges

DSU 1, NCCU 3 · 2025-26 so far

NCCUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: DSU 34.1, NCCU 39.3. Allowed: DSU 40.5, NCCU 36.9

NCCUSmall

Recent form

Last 5: DSU 2-3 ATS, margin -9.2; NCCU 4-1 ATS, margin -2.6

DSUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DSU 41%, NCCU 4%. Transfers in: DSU 1, NCCU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

NCCUSmall

Home court

NCCU at home. This season: NCCU 1-3 at home, DSU 1-9 away

Context

Schedule so far

DSU has played the 354th-hardest schedule, NCCU the 310th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Three-pointers

DSU hits 28.4% and allows 33.0%; NCCU hits 32.6% and allows 36.4%. Threes are 28.9% and 33.9% of their shots

Even

NCCU offense vs DSU defense

Offense 345th of 366 against a defense 307th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DSU 19.8%, NCCU 18.2%. Forced: DSU 19.6%, NCCU 19.8%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DSU 27.7%, NCCU 30.0%. Defensive: DSU 68.0%, NCCU 60.6%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: DSU 42.9 and allows 52.9; NCCU 47.5 and allows 54.5

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: DSU plays 66.7 a game (290th fastest), NCCU 66.9 (282nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

DSU offense vs NCCU defense

Offense 354th of 366 against a defense 352nd, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NCCU -5.1	—
Total	—	139.1	—
Projected score	—	DSU 67 · NCCU 72.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NCCU -2.9	—
1H total	65.2	—
1H projected score	DSU 31.1 · NCCU 34.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DSU WLWLL	6-9	40%	3-7	—
NCCU WWWWL	9-6	60%	2-2	—

Venue/role: DSU away; NCCU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DSU UUUOO	4-11	27%	2-13
NCCU OUOOO	7-8	47%	3-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DSU	2-8 20%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
NCCU	3-7 30%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 12 since 2021-22

DSU 2–10 NCCUNCCU leads · 12 games since 2021-22 · DSU 4-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 13, 2024-25	NCCU 79 vs DSU 77	DSU +0.5	NCCU W
Feb 24, 2024-25	NCCU 84 @ DSU 86	DSU -3.5	NCCU W
Jan 13, 2024-25	DSU 72 @ NCCU 75	NCCU -6.5	DSU W
Mar 15, 2023-24	DSU 71 vs NCCU 58	NCCU -4.5	DSU W
Feb 26, 2023-24	DSU 81 @ NCCU 93	NCCU -5.5	NCCU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Delaware St

15 games played

Straight up

2-13

13% wins

Against the spread

6-9

40% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-11

27% overs · avg −6.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-1313%

L L L L L L L W W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-940%

L L L L L L W W W W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-1127%

U U U U U U U O O U U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@TEM	L 65-83	+16.5	L −1.5	154.5	U 148
Nov 8	@SYR	L 43-83	+26.5	L −13.5	157.5	U 126
Nov 10	@NIA	L 57-68	+5.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 125
Nov 15	@NHVN	L 52-65	+1.5	L −11.5	130.5	U 117
Nov 23	@MIA	L 41-97	+34.5	L −21.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 29	@UMBC	L 57-71	+13.5	L −0.5	138.5	U 128
Dec 3	vsNAVY	L 59-66	+15.5	W +8.5	132.5	U 125
Dec 6	vsDEL	W 75-72	+7.5	W +10.5	129.5	O 147
Dec 13	@LONG	W 81-76	+13.5	W +18.5	139.5	O 157
Dec 18	@JOES	L 51-67	+17.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 118
Dec 29	@RUTG	L 50-65	+20.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 115
Jan 3	vsCOPP	L 51-53	-8.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 104
Jan 10	vsNORF	L 64-66	+4.5	W +2.5	132.5	U 130
Jan 12	@HOW	L 58-84	+8.5	L −17.5	129.5	O 142
Jan 17	vsMORG	L 79-80	-3.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TEM

L 65-83

−1.5

SYR

L 43-83

−13.5

NIA

L 57-68

−5.5

NHVN

L 52-65

−11.5

MIA

L 41-97

−21.5

UMBC

L 57-71

−0.5

NAVY

L 59-66

+8.5

DEL

W 75-72

+10.5

LONG

W 81-76

+18.5

JOES

L 51-67

+1.5

RUTG

L 50-65

+5.5

COPP

L 51-53

−10.5

NORF

L 64-66

+2.5

HOW

L 58-84

−17.5

MORG

L 79-80

−4.5

covered 6didn’t cover 9avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TEM

L 65-83

−6.5

SYR

L 43-83

−31.5

NIA

L 57-68

−12.5

NHVN

L 52-65

−13.5

MIA

L 41-97

−13.5

UMBC

L 57-71

−10.5

NAVY

L 59-66

−7.5

DEL

W 75-72

+17.5

LONG

W 81-76

+17.5

JOES

L 51-67

−19.5

RUTG

L 50-65

−20.5

COPP

L 51-53

−35.5

NORF

L 64-66

−2.5

HOW

L 58-84

+12.5

MORG

L 79-80

+22.5

over 4under 11avg −6.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

NC Central

15 games played

Straight up

3-12

20% wins

Against the spread

9-6

60% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-8

47% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-1220%

L L L L L L L L L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

9-660%

L W L L W L W L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-847%

O U U U U O U U O U O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NCSU	L 66-114	+31.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 180
Nov 7	@UVA	L 62-81	+34.5	W +15.5	151.5	U 143
Nov 9	@APP	L 54-76	+10.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 130
Nov 14	@UNC	L 53-97	+34.5	L −9.5	159.5	U 150
Nov 22	@DAY	L 55-74	+29.5	W +10.5	146.5	U 129
Nov 25	@UPST	L 67-82	+7.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 149
Dec 3	@JMU	L 62-67	+14.5	W +9.5	143.5	U 129
Dec 6	vsNCAT	L 54-69	+2.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 123
Dec 9	@UK	L 67-103	+42.5	W +6.5	148.5	O 170
Dec 20	vsLONG	L 72-74	+3.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 29	@PSU	L 67-90	+23.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 157
Jan 3	vsNORF	W 69-67	+1.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 10	@COPP	W 88-77	-6.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 12	@MORG	W 89-78	-3.5	W +7.5	141.5	O 167
Jan 17	vsHOW	L 69-83	+2.5	L −11.5	141.5	O 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NCSU

L 66-114

−16.5

UVA

L 62-81

+15.5

APP

L 54-76

−11.5

UNC

L 53-97

−9.5

DAY

L 55-74

+10.5

UPST

L 67-82

−7.5

JMU

L 62-67

+9.5

NCAT

L 54-69

−12.5

L 67-103

+6.5

LONG

L 72-74

+1.5

PSU

L 67-90

+0.5

NORF

W 69-67

+3.5

COPP

W 88-77

+4.5

MORG

W 89-78

+7.5

HOW

L 69-83

−11.5

covered 9didn’t cover 6avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NCSU

L 66-114

+34.5

UVA

L 62-81

−8.5

APP

L 54-76

−6.5

UNC

L 53-97

−9.5

DAY

L 55-74

−17.5

UPST

L 67-82

+0.5

JMU

L 62-67

−14.5

NCAT

L 54-69

−19.5

L 67-103

+21.5

LONG

L 72-74

−0.5

PSU

L 67-90

+6.5

NORF

W 69-67

−5.5

COPP

W 88-77

+21.5

MORG

W 89-78

+25.5

HOW

L 69-83

+10.5

over 7under 8avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Delaware St has the better starters

Position by position: Delaware St 2, NC Central 0, even 3

Delaware StBetterNC Central

G R. Moore6.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 1 ast Score 33

DSUSmall

G T. Brown TR3.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11

G N. Muhammad TR7.3 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 35

No call

G R. Archey3.1 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked

G J. St Clair3.7 pts · 0.9 reb · 1 ast Score 14

Even

F C. Meeks TR5.7 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 6

G D. Shepherd4.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 58

DSUSmall

F T. Mason TR5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.1 ast Score 32

F A. Santos6.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20

No call

F M. Vassel TR1.7 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

Delaware StBetterNC Central

DSU offense354th of 366 · -13.2

Even

NCCU defense352nd of 366 · -9.9

DSU defense307th of 366 · -7.9

Even

NCCU offense345th of 366 · -11.9

Backcourt-4.0 · 4 players

NCCUSmall

Backcourt-2.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.5 · 1 player

DSUBig

Frontcourt-5.2 · 3 players

Bench-2.0 · 1 player

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestDSU betterNCCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Delaware St

Guards

R. Moore22 minN. Muhammad18 min · TRJ. St Clair15 minD. Shepherd13 minN. ReedusNewI. SullivanNew

Forwards

A. Santos20 minM. Adamu13 minT. HawkinsNewG. EkukwaiNewJ. ObioraNewF. MuntariNew

NC Central

Guards

T. Brown14 min · TRR. Archey8 minD. KaneNewC. SanonNewI. BuckleyNewA. BowserNew

Forwards

C. Meeks29 min · TRT. Mason12 min · TRM. Vassel8 min · TRJ. PriceNewD. DuorNew

Centers

D. MbaetekaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DSU59.7 #365

NCCU67.6 #322

Points per possession

DSU0.89 #365

NCCU1.02 #308

Pace (possessions)

DSU66.7 #290

NCCU66.9 #282

Shooting

Effective FG%

DSU42.9 #364

NCCU47.5 #328

3-point %

DSU28.4 #361

NCCU32.6 #247

3-point attempt rate

DSU28.9 #357

NCCU33.9 #299

Free throw rate

DSU34.1 #204

NCCU39.3 #72

Possessions

Turnover rate

DSU19.8 #346

NCCU18.2 #285

Offensive rebound rate

DSU27.7 #277

NCCU30.0 #201

Assists per game

DSU9.7 #361

NCCU12.1 #279

Defense

Points allowed

DSU71.4 #89

NCCU77.3 #246

Points allowed per possession

DSU1.07 #143

NCCU1.15 #322

Opponent effective FG%

DSU52.9 #265

NCCU54.5 #317

Opponent 3-point %

DSU33.0 #123

NCCU36.4 #321

Turnovers forced

DSU19.6 #32

NCCU19.8 #27

Defensive rebound rate

DSU68.0 #257

NCCU60.6 #364

Steals per game

DSU7.6 #73

NCCU7.7 #60

Blocks per game

DSU1.8 #353

NCCU3.4 #165

DSU		NCCU
Scoring
59.7 #365	Points per game	67.6 #322
0.89 #365	Points per possession	1.02 #308
66.7 #290	Pace (possessions)	66.9 #282
Shooting
42.9 #364	Effective FG%	47.5 #328
28.4 #361	3-point %	32.6 #247
28.9 #357	3-point attempt rate	33.9 #299
34.1 #204	Free throw rate	39.3 #72
Possessions
19.8 #346	Turnover rate	18.2 #285
27.7 #277	Offensive rebound rate	30.0 #201
9.7 #361	Assists per game	12.1 #279
Defense
71.4 #89	Points allowed	77.3 #246
1.07 #143	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #322
52.9 #265	Opponent effective FG%	54.5 #317
33.0 #123	Opponent 3-point %	36.4 #321
19.6 #32	Turnovers forced	19.8 #27
68.0 #257	Defensive rebound rate	60.6 #364
7.6 #73	Steals per game	7.7 #60
1.8 #353	Blocks per game	3.4 #165

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Delaware St

2-13 overall · 0-4 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Morgan St79–80
L@ Howard58–84
Lvs Norfolk St64–66
Lvs Coppin St51–53
L@ Rutgers50–65

A week or more of rest.

NC Central

3-12 overall · 3-1 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Howard69–83
W@ Morgan St89–78
W@ Coppin St88–77
Wvs Norfolk St69–67
L@ Penn State67–90

A week or more of rest.

Delaware State Hornets at North Carolina Central Eagles

What could decide it: NCCU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Delaware St

NC Central

Delaware St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Delaware St

NC Central