East Texas A&M Lions at Northwestern State Demons: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 24, 4:30 PM ETPrather Coliseum · at N'Western St · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: East Texas A&M and N'Western St
ETAM	This season	NWST
6-12	Record	4-13
9-9	ATS	11-6
9-9	O/U	12-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NWST 74–71 · win probability NWST 62%

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NWST has more of the edges

ETAM 0, NWST 5 · 2025-26 so far

NWSTBig

Recent form

Last 5: ETAM 2-3 ATS, margin -0.4; NWST 5-0 ATS, margin -0.8

NWSTSmall

ETAM offense vs NWST defense

Offense 344th of 366 against a defense 236th, on the model’s ratings

NWSTSmall

Three-pointers

ETAM hits 31.3% and allows 37.3%; NWST hits 33.2% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 46.2% and 33.9% of their shots

NWSTSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ETAM 32.0, NWST 40.1. Allowed: ETAM 34.5, NWST 36.3

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: ETAM plays 68.5 a game (203rd fastest), NWST 65.4 (334th). Faster games mean more points

NWSTSmall

Home court

NWST at home. This season: NWST 3-3 at home, ETAM 3-9 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ETAM 7%, NWST 28%. Transfers in: ETAM 2, NWST 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

ETAM has played the 265th-hardest schedule, NWST the 292nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

NWST offense vs ETAM defense

Offense 340th of 366 against a defense 317th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ETAM 19.2%, NWST 18.3%. Forced: ETAM 17.0%, NWST 16.9%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: ETAM 49.2 and allows 52.9; NWST 48.6 and allows 53.0

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ETAM 25.7%, NWST 26.1%. Defensive: ETAM 67.2%, NWST 67.4%

Even

Rest

ETAM 5 days since its last game, NWST 5

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NWST -3.4	—
Total	—	144.8	—
Projected score	—	ETAM 70.7 · NWST 74.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NWST -1.9	—
1H total	67.8	—
1H projected score	ETAM 33 · NWST 34.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ETAM LWLLW	9-9	50%	6-6	—
NWST WWWWW	11-6	65%	4-2	—

Venue/role: ETAM away; NWST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ETAM OOUOU	9-9	50%	6-12
NWST OOUOO	12-5	71%	4-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ETAM	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
NWST	4-6 40%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22

ETAM 3–4 NWSTNWST leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · ETAM 4-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 1, 2024-25	NWST 50 @ ETAM 72	ETAM +3.5	ETAM W
Jan 11, 2024-25	ETAM 67 @ NWST 75	NWST -9.5	ETAM W
Mar 10, 2023-24	ETAM 69 vs NWST 64	NWST -0.5	ETAM W
Mar 6, 2023-24	NWST 80 @ ETAM 83	ETAM -4.5	NWST W
Feb 3, 2023-24	ETAM 57 @ NWST 70	NWST -1.5	NWST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

East Texas A&M

18 games played

Straight up

6-12

33% wins

Against the spread

9-9

50% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-9

50% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-1233%

L L L W W L W L W L L L L L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

9-950%

W L W W W W W L W L L L L L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

9-950%

U O U U O O U O O O U U U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@UNM	L 54-76	+22.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 10	@HAW	L 74-100	+18.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 174
Nov 14	@RICE	L 64-71	+10.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 135
Nov 24	@FDU	W 70-65	-3.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 135
Nov 25	vsARMY	W 84-67	-2.5	W +14.5	143.5	O 151
Dec 5	@CONN	L 59-83	+36.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 142
Dec 7	vsCARK	W 75-68	-2.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 143
Dec 12	@MCN	L 66-102	+20.5	L −15.5	142.5	O 168
Dec 15	@SELA	W 70-69	+4.5	W +5.5	137.5	O 139
Dec 21	@TA&M	L 77-118	+28.5	L −12.5	166.5	O 195
Dec 29	vsSFA	L 48-75	+4.5	L −22.5	146.5	U 123
Dec 31	vsLAM	L 62-69	+5.5	L −1.5	143.5	U 131
Jan 3	@NICH	L 58-80	+6.5	L −15.5	146.5	U 138
Jan 5	@NOLA	L 73-83	+6.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 156
Jan 10	vsRGV	W 77-69	+3.5	W +11.5	145.5	O 146
Jan 12	vsAMCC	L 50-61	+3.5	L −7.5	142.5	U 111
Jan 17	@HCU	L 70-81	+2.5	L −8.5	139.5	O 151
Jan 19	@UIW	W 80-58	+6.5	W +28.5	142.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNM

L 54-76

+0.5

HAW

L 74-100

−7.5

RICE

L 64-71

+3.5

FDU

W 70-65

+1.5

ARMY

W 84-67

+14.5

CONN

L 59-83

+12.5

CARK

W 75-68

+4.5

MCN

L 66-102

−15.5

SELA

W 70-69

+5.5

TA&M

L 77-118

−12.5

SFA

L 48-75

−22.5

LAM

L 62-69

−1.5

NICH

L 58-80

−15.5

NOLA

L 73-83

−3.5

RGV

W 77-69

+11.5

AMCC

L 50-61

−7.5

HCU

L 70-81

−8.5

UIW

W 80-58

+28.5

covered 9didn’t cover 9avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNM

L 54-76

−13.5

HAW

L 74-100

+28.5

RICE

L 64-71

−11.5

FDU

W 70-65

−14.5

ARMY

W 84-67

+7.5

CONN

L 59-83

+0.5

CARK

W 75-68

−2.5

MCN

L 66-102

+25.5

SELA

W 70-69

+1.5

TA&M

L 77-118

+28.5

SFA

L 48-75

−23.5

LAM

L 62-69

−12.5

NICH

L 58-80

−8.5

NOLA

L 73-83

+5.5

RGV

W 77-69

+0.5

AMCC

L 50-61

−31.5

HCU

L 70-81

+11.5

UIW

W 80-58

−4.5

over 9under 9avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

N'Western St

17 games played

Straight up

4-13

24% wins

Against the spread

11-6

65% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-5

71% overs · avg +5.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-1324%

L L L L L L L W L L L W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

11-665%

L L W L W W L W W L L W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-571%

O U O O O O O O O U U U O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TA&M	L 68-98	+21.5	L −8.5	153.5	O 166
Nov 6	@UNT	L 53-80	+11.5	L −15.5	137.5	U 133
Nov 11	@UNA	L 83-87	+6.5	W +2.5	142.5	O 170
Nov 18	@SF	L 64-84	+16.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 148
Nov 21	@GCU	L 72-85	+18.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 157
Nov 29	vsSOU	L 73-75	+3.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 148
Dec 5	@MCN	L 54-92	+19.5	L −18.5	139.5	O 146
Dec 7	@SELA	W 76-68	+7.5	W +15.5	133.5	O 144
Dec 13	@CAL	L 70-79	+19.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 149
Dec 29	vsLAM	L 61-76	+3.5	L −11.5	138.5	U 137
Dec 31	vsSFA	L 64-74	+8.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 138
Jan 3	vsNOLA	W 74-68	+1.5	W +7.5	149.5	U 142
Jan 5	@NICH	L 72-74	+8.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 146
Jan 10	vsAMCC	W 79-78	+5.5	W +6.5	138.5	O 157
Jan 12	vsRGV	W 64-63	+2.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 127
Jan 17	@UIW	L 74-76	+8.5	W +6.5	141.5	O 150
Jan 19	@HCU	L 80-82	+2.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TA&M

L 68-98

−8.5

UNT

L 53-80

−15.5

UNA

L 83-87

+2.5

L 64-84

−3.5

GCU

L 72-85

+5.5

SOU

L 73-75

+1.5

MCN

L 54-92

−18.5

SELA

W 76-68

+15.5

CAL

L 70-79

+10.5

LAM

L 61-76

−11.5

SFA

L 64-74

−1.5

NOLA

W 74-68

+7.5

NICH

L 72-74

+6.5

AMCC

W 79-78

+6.5

RGV

W 64-63

+3.5

UIW

L 74-76

+6.5

HCU

L 80-82

+0.5

covered 11didn’t cover 6avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TA&M

L 68-98

+12.5

UNT

L 53-80

−4.5

UNA

L 83-87

+27.5

L 64-84

+4.5

GCU

L 72-85

+9.5

SOU

L 73-75

+3.5

MCN

L 54-92

+6.5

SELA

W 76-68

+10.5

CAL

L 70-79

+3.5

LAM

L 61-76

−1.5

SFA

L 64-74

−0.5

NOLA

W 74-68

−7.5

NICH

L 72-74

+1.5

AMCC

W 79-78

+18.5

RGV

W 64-63

−16.5

UIW

L 74-76

+8.5

HCU

L 80-82

+22.5

over 12under 5avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

East Texas A&M has the better starters

Position by position: East Texas A&M 1, N'Western St 0, even 4

East Texas A&MBetterN'Western St

G A. Dodd TR14.3 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.1 ast Score 82

ETAMSmall

G I. Miles10.7 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 57

G E. Phelps1.3 pts · 0.7 reb · 1 ast Score 0

Even

G C. Larry2.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 1

G K. Tolbert NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F D. Thomas TR5.1 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20

F J. Ford TR3.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

No call

F A. Osojnik TR5.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22

F B. Aldridge NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F K. Turner3.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 34

East Texas A&MBetterN'Western St

ETAM offense344th of 366 · -11.8

NWSTSmall

NWST defense236th of 366 · -6.2

ETAM defense317th of 366 · -8.2

Even

NWST offense340th of 366 · -11.5

Backcourt-1.7 · 3 players

ETAMSmall

Backcourt-3.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players

ETAMSmall

Frontcourt-3.2 · 3 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestETAM betterNWST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

East Texas A&M

Guards

A. Dodd32 min · TRE. Phelps15 minK. TolbertNewC. AdlamNewK. RobinsonNewG. SkorjancNew

Forwards

J. Ford10 min · TRB. AldridgeNewY. VidalNewM. DiakiteNewC. DinuNewM. CarrioNew

N'Western St

Guards

I. Miles25 minC. Larry18 minK. SimpsonNewD. BrownNewA. AlmuttarNewB. RemoNew

Forwards

D. Thomas18 min · TRA. Osojnik16 min · TRK. Turner13 minN. OjukwuNewC. KellyNewJ. NesbittNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ETAM67.1 #331

NWST66.1 #346

Points per possession

ETAM0.98 #342

NWST1.01 #315

Pace (possessions)

ETAM68.5 #203

NWST65.4 #334

Shooting

Effective FG%

ETAM49.2 #282

NWST48.6 #301

3-point %

ETAM31.3 #313

NWST33.2 #218

3-point attempt rate

ETAM46.2 #43

NWST33.9 #298

Free throw rate

ETAM32.0 #257

NWST40.1 #58

Possessions

Turnover rate

ETAM19.2 #330

NWST18.3 #286

Offensive rebound rate

ETAM25.7 #328

NWST26.1 #321

Assists per game

ETAM14.6 #109

NWST11.3 #322

Defense

Points allowed

ETAM76.0 #218

NWST72.9 #129

Points allowed per possession

ETAM1.11 #240

NWST1.12 #262

Opponent effective FG%

ETAM52.9 #261

NWST53.0 #270

Opponent 3-point %

ETAM37.3 #347

NWST35.5 #278

Turnovers forced

ETAM17.0 #156

NWST16.9 #160

Defensive rebound rate

ETAM67.2 #288

NWST67.4 #286

Steals per game

ETAM6.7 #150

NWST6.2 #215

Blocks per game

ETAM3.1 #196

NWST2.3 #321

ETAM		NWST
Scoring
67.1 #331	Points per game	66.1 #346
0.98 #342	Points per possession	1.01 #315
68.5 #203	Pace (possessions)	65.4 #334
Shooting
49.2 #282	Effective FG%	48.6 #301
31.3 #313	3-point %	33.2 #218
46.2 #43	3-point attempt rate	33.9 #298
32.0 #257	Free throw rate	40.1 #58
Possessions
19.2 #330	Turnover rate	18.3 #286
25.7 #328	Offensive rebound rate	26.1 #321
14.6 #109	Assists per game	11.3 #322
Defense
76.0 #218	Points allowed	72.9 #129
1.11 #240	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #262
52.9 #261	Opponent effective FG%	53.0 #270
37.3 #347	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #278
17.0 #156	Turnovers forced	16.9 #160
67.2 #288	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #286
6.7 #150	Steals per game	6.2 #215
3.1 #196	Blocks per game	2.3 #321

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

East Texas A&M

6-12 overall · 3-7 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

W@ Incarnate Word80–58
L@ Hou Christian70–81
Lvs Texas A&M-CC50–61
Wvs UT Rio Grande77–69
L@ LSU N Orleans73–83

5 days since their last game.

N'Western St

4-13 overall · 4-6 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Hou Christian80–82
L@ Incarnate Word74–76
Wvs UT Rio Grande64–63
Wvs Texas A&M-CC79–78
L@ Nicholls72–74

5 days since their last game.

East Texas A&M Lions at Northwestern State Demons

What could decide it: NWST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

East Texas A&M

N'Western St

East Texas A&M has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

East Texas A&M

N'Western St