Southern Illinois Salukis at High Point Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 7:00 PM ETQubein Center · at High Point

#195SIUS Illinois86▲ winner

Final

Closing lineHPU -9.5✓ SIU covered by 11.5

Closing total162.5Over by 7.5

Season records: S Illinois and High Point
SIU	This season	HPU
3-4	Record	6-1
3-4	ATS	4-3
3-4	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SIU 77–86 HPU · ✗ HPU (78%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SIU	34	52	86
HPU	46	38	84

1st half: SIU 34, HPU 46 (HPU by 12). The model had HPU by 5.3 and a total of 76.6 (actual 80).

Team stats

SIU		HPU
33-67 49%	Field goals	28-65 43%
10-22 45%	3-pointers	10-26 38%
10-14 71%	Free throws	18-24 75%
42 12 off	Rebounds	37 13 off
20	Assists	10
8	Steals	8
6	Blocks	3
12	Turnovers	11
18	Fouls	13
40	Points in paint	32
24	Fast-break points	12

Players

SIU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Drew Steffe G	33	18	4	7	6-10	4-7
Quel'Ron House G	27	6	3	2	3-9	0-1
Prince Aligbe F	26	10	5	0	4-7	0-0
Damien Mayo Jr. G	23	22	5	2	7-12	4-6
Rolyns Aligbe F	18	5	7	1	2-8	0-1
Bench
Jalen Haynes G	23	10	2	5	5-8	0-3
Jorge Moreno F	16	4	4	1	2-3	0-0
Davion Sykes G	16	3	3	1	1-2	0-0
Isaiah Stafford G	15	8	6	1	3-7	2-3
Max Pikaar F	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Jaheem Webber, Caden Hawkins, Daniel Pauliukonis, Luke Walsh

HPU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Terry Anderson F	33	21	10	3	6-13	2-2
Owen Aquino F	31	8	5	4	3-6	0-0
Rob Martin G	30	20	2	0	8-17	3-6
Cam'Ron Fletcher F	28	8	10	1	3-7	1-3
Chase Johnston G	16	6	1	0	2-7	2-6
Bench
Conrad Martinez G	30	11	0	2	2-8	0-4
Scotty Washington G	14	8	2	0	3-4	2-3
Josh Ibukunoluwa F	9	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Braden Hausen F	8	0	1	0	0-2	0-2
Babacar Diallo G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Caden Miller, David Fonville, Liam Carney, Vincent Brady II, Birgir Irving, Mavrick Miller, Youssouf Singar, Dorian Grosber, Kasen Krueger

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	HPU -9.5	HPU -9.0	SIU +0.5	W SIU covered
Total	162.5	163.8	Over 1.3	W Over
Projected score	—	SIU 77.4 · HPU 86.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HPU -5.3	HPU -12.0
1H total	76.6	80
1H projected score	SIU 35.7 · HPU 41	SIU 34 · HPU 46

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SIU LWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	1-3
HPU LWLLW	4-3	57%	3-0	4-3

Venue/role: SIU away, as underdog; HPU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SIU OUUUU	3-4	43%	3-4
HPU UUOOO	4-3	57%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SIUlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
HPUlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SIU 0–1 HPUHPU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SIU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 21, 2024-25	HPU 94 @ SIU 81	SIU +2.5	HPU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

S Illinois

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg +3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsKC	W 101-78	-12.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 179
Nov 12	@NEV	L 81-86	+11.5	W +6.5	152.5	O 167
Nov 17	@NDSU	L 85-92	+1.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 177
Nov 23	vsDEL	W 79-59	-8.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 138
Nov 24	vsUAB	L 73-81	+2.5	L −5.5	161.5	U 154
Nov 26	@MEM	L 58-74	+10.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 132
Nov 29	vsLR	W 74-65	-13.5	L −4.5	141.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 101-78

+10.5

NEV

L 81-86

+6.5

NDSU

L 85-92

−5.5

DEL

W 79-59

+11.5

UAB

L 73-81

−5.5

MEM

L 58-74

−5.5

W 74-65

−4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 101-78

+37.5

NEV

L 81-86

+14.5

NDSU

L 85-92

+23.5

DEL

W 79-59

−15.5

UAB

L 73-81

−7.5

MEM

L 58-74

−24.5

W 74-65

−2.5

over 3under 4avg +3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

High Point

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +4.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFUR	W 97-71	-3.5	W +22.5	153.5	O 168
Nov 11	vsJAX	W 85-64	-17.5	W +3.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 14	@UAB	L 74-91	-1.5	L −18.5	168.5	U 165
Nov 17	vsCAN	W 93-50	-23.5	W +19.5	152.5	U 143
Nov 20	vsUIC	W 90-80	-10.5	L −0.5	158.5	O 170
Nov 22	vsUIW	W 91-80	-12.5	L −1.5	160.5	O 171
Nov 29	vsWCU	W 93-73	-16.5	W +3.5	159.5	O 166

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FUR

W 97-71

+22.5

JAX

W 85-64

+3.5

UAB

L 74-91

−18.5

CAN

W 93-50

+19.5

UIC

W 90-80

−0.5

UIW

W 91-80

−1.5

WCU

W 93-73

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FUR

W 97-71

+14.5

JAX

W 85-64

−7.5

UAB

L 74-91

−3.5

CAN

W 93-50

−9.5

UIC

W 90-80

+11.5

UIW

W 91-80

+10.5

WCU

W 93-73

+6.5

over 4under 3avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

S Illinois @ High Point

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

S Illinois

High Point

S Illinois

High Point