Boston University Terriers at New Hampshire Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 7:00 PM ETLundholm Gymnasium · at New Hampshire

#261BUBoston U82final

Final

Closing lineBU -5.5✓ UNH covered by 11.5

Closing total134.5Over by 35.5

Season records: Boston U and New Hampshire
BU	This season	UNH
3-5	Record	0-7
4-4	ATS	4-3
5-3	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BU 72–66 UNH · ✗ BU (71%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
BU	38	36	8	82
UNH	33	41	14	88

1st half: BU 38, UNH 33 (BU by 5). The model had BU by 4.0 and a total of 64.8 (actual 71).

Team stats

BU		UNH
27-62 44%	Field goals	33-65 51%
13-27 48%	3-pointers	7-23 30%
15-27 56%	Free throws	15-29 52%
37 10 off	Rebounds	46 13 off
12	Assists	5
4	Steals	5
4	Blocks	4
13	Turnovers	10
20	Fouls	19
26	Points in paint	52
4	Fast-break points	20

Players

BU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mike McNair Jr. G	42	21	8	2	6-11	4-6
Sam Hughes F	38	15	3	2	5-11	5-10
Ben Roy G	35	4	5	2	2-8	0-2
Ben Defty C	20	9	3	2	4-8	0-0
Chance Gladden G	8	0	1	1	0-2	0-0
Bench
Malcolm Chimezie F	30	10	8	1	3-6	0-0
Azmar Abdullah G	26	12	0	1	4-6	1-3
Donte Tisinger Jr. G	17	11	3	1	3-10	3-6
Quinn Nielsen F	8	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Andrew Bhesania F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Peter Carr, Spencer Joyner, Kyrone Alexander, Ethan Okwuosa, Matai Baptiste, Otto Landrum

UNH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jack Graham G	35	13	4	3	4-9	1-6
Davide Poser F	33	2	6	1	0-2	0-2
KiJan Robinson G	32	21	2	0	8-12	4-6
Belal El Shakery F	30	18	14	1	7-14	0-1
John Squire F	20	4	6	0	1-3	0-1
Bench
R.J. Kennedy G	28	12	4	0	5-9	0-3
Comeh Emuobor F	18	6	1	0	3-9	0-0
Tyler Bike G	15	8	2	0	3-5	2-4
Jon O'Neill F	10	4	4	0	2-2	0-0
Giannos Xanthopoulos C	5	0	2	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Dylan Saunders, Nick Sanford, Antoni Siewruk, Myles Blackley

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BU -5.5	BU -6.4	BU +0.9	L UNH covered
Total	134.5	138.4	Over 3.9	W Over
Projected score	—	BU 72.4 · UNH 66

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BU -4.0	BU -5.0
1H total	64.8	71
1H projected score	BU 34.4 · UNH 30.4	BU 38 · UNH 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BU LLWWL	4-4	50%	2-3	1-1
UNH WLLWW	4-3	57%	0-1	4-3

Venue/role: BU away, as favorite; UNH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BU OUOOU	5-3	63%	3-5
UNH UOUUU	2-5	29%	0-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUlast 8	3-5 38%	4-4 50%	5-3 63%
UNHlast 7	0-7 0%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

BU 1–0 UNHBU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · BU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 20, 2022-23	BU 64 @ UNH 57	UNH +5.5	BU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Boston U

8 games played

Straight up

3-5

38% wins

Against the spread

4-4

50% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-3

63% overs · avg +9.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-538%

W L W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-450%

W L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-363%

O U O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NE	W 76-75	+2.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 7	@NU	L 52-76	+17.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 12	vsBRWN	W 90-77	-3.5	W +9.5	129.5	O 167
Nov 15	vsMRMK	L 79-91	-2.5	L −14.5	135.5	O 170
Nov 18	@COLU	L 49-54	+4.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 103
Nov 22	vsHARV	W 75-74	+4.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 25	@PSU	L 87-96	+14.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 183
Nov 29	@NKU	L 65-74	+7.5	L −1.5	143.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 76-75

+3.5

L 52-76

−6.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+9.5

MRMK

L 79-91

−14.5

COLU

L 49-54

−0.5

HARV

W 75-74

+5.5

PSU

L 87-96

+5.5

NKU

L 65-74

−1.5

covered 4didn’t cover 4avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 76-75

+8.5

L 52-76

−8.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+37.5

MRMK

L 79-91

+34.5

COLU

L 49-54

−41.5

HARV

W 75-74

+12.5

PSU

L 87-96

+40.5

NKU

L 65-74

−4.5

over 5under 3avg +9.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

New Hampshire

7 games played

Straight up

0-7

0% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −13.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-70%

L L L L L L L

7 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

L W W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CLEM	L 38-88	+29.5	L −20.5	146.5	U 126
Nov 9	@HARV	L 75-86	+15.5	W +4.5	147.5	O 161
Nov 15	@GMU	L 44-61	+24.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 105
Nov 18	@PROV	L 66-98	+29.5	L −2.5	161.5	O 164
Nov 26	vsBRWN	L 47-59	+5.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 106
Nov 30	@FAIR	L 68-72	+9.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 140
Dec 3	@DART	L 68-69	+8.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLEM

L 38-88

−20.5

HARV

L 75-86

+4.5

GMU

L 44-61

+7.5

PROV

L 66-98

−2.5

BRWN

L 47-59

−6.5

FAIR

L 68-72

+5.5

DART

L 68-69

+7.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLEM

L 38-88

−20.5

HARV

L 75-86

+13.5

GMU

L 44-61

−39.5

PROV

L 66-98

+2.5

BRWN

L 47-59

−30.5

FAIR

L 68-72

−7.5

DART

L 68-69

−10.5

over 2under 5avg −13.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Boston U @ New Hampshire

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Boston U

New Hampshire

Boston U

New Hampshire