Cintas Center · at Xavier
Closing line
XAV -18.5✓ MOST covered by 0.5
XAV -18.5✓ MOST covered by 0.5Closing total151.5Under by 19.5
 MOST | This season | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 7-3 |
| 1-4 | ATS | 5-5 |
| 2-3 | O/U | 5-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MOST 66–84 XAV · ✓ XAV (94%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MOST | 28 | 29 | 57 |
| XAV | 31 | 44 | 75 |
1st half: MOST 28, XAV 31 (XAV by 3). The model had XAV by 10.7 and a total of 69.8 (actual 59).
Team stats
| MOST | XAV | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-53 40% | Field goals | 28-65 43% |
| 3-14 21% | 3-pointers | 12-30 40% |
| 12-15 80% | Free throws | 7-12 58% |
| 36 10 off | Rebounds | 37 13 off |
| 15 | Assists | 23 |
| 4 | Steals | 8 |
| 3 | Blocks | 8 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 15 |
Players
| MOST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith Palek III F | 35 | 23 | 11 | 5 | 9-22 | 1-6 |
| Kobi Williams G | 35 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3-8 | 1-2 |
| Zaxton King G | 31 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Trey Williams Jr. G | 26 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 1-6 | 1-3 |
| Cameron Boone F | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Darrion Sutton F | 25 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6-10 | 0-0 |
| Melakih Cunningham G | 18 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Logan Epes G | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ryder Cheesman, Collin Clark, Antwan Burnett, Tyrique Brooks, Michael Osei-Bonsu, Amar Kuljuhovic
| XAV | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Borovicanin F | 36 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 5-9 | 3-5 |
| Tre Carroll F | 33 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 4-11 | 3-5 |
| Malik Messina-Moore G | 32 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2-7 | 1-4 |
| Jovan Milicevic F | 27 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 6-11 | 2-4 |
| All Wright G | 21 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 4-7 | 2-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Roddie Anderson G | 17 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3-11 | 0-4 |
| Isaiah Walker G | 17 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3-7 | 0-3 |
| Pape N'Diaye F | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Mier Panoam G | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Ian Sabourin F | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Kason Westphal, Gabriel Pozzato, Luke Naser, Henry Thole, Anthony Robinson, Michael Wolf
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketXAV -18.5
ModelXAV -17.9
Model edgeMOST +0.6
W MOST covered
Total
Market151.5
Model149.2
Model edgeUnder 2.3
W Under
Projected score
MOST 65.6 · XAV 83.5
MOST 57 · XAV 75
Win probability
XAV 94%
1st half
Spread
XAV -10.7
XAV -3.0
Total
69.8
59 points
Projected score
MOST 29.6 · XAV 40.3
MOST 28 · XAV 31
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenXAV -17.5
1 → XAV
CloseXAV -18.5
1 pt toward XAV
Total
Open147.5
▲ 4
Close151.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
MOST +1100 · XAV -2100
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened XAV -17.5 · closed XAV -18.5 · moved 1 toward XAVmodel XAV -18
model XAV -18
Opened 147.5 · closed 151.5 · moved 4 upmodel 149
model 149
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MOSTlast 5 | 1-4 20% | 1-4 20% | 2-3 40% |
| XAV | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Missouri St
5 games played
Straight up
1-4
20% wins
Against the spread
1-4
20% covers · avg −9.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
11
vs
ARST
ARSTL 85-86
−2.5
15
@
UTA
UTAL 49-67
−14.5
22
vs
RGV
RGVW 74-67
+3.5
24
vs
LIU
LIUL 61-75
−18.5
6
@
TLSA
TLSAL 74-98
−16.5
covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −9.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
11
vsARST
ARSTL 85-86
+18.5
15
@UTA
UTAL 49-67
−27.5
22
vsRGV
RGVW 74-67
−8.5
24
vsLIU
LIUL 61-75
−9.5
6
@TLSA
TLSAL 74-98
+29.5
over 2under 3avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Xavier
10 games played
Straight up
7-3
70% wins
Against the spread
5-5
50% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-5
50% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MRST | W 66-62 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 139.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 6 | vs LEM | W 74-69 | -24.5 | L −19.5 | 156.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 10 | vs SCU | L 68-87 | -3.5 | L −22.5 | 155.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 14 | @ IOWA | L 62-81 | +15.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 18 | vs ODU | W 99-69 | -10.5 | W +19.5 | 150.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 21 | vs UGA | L 77-78 | +10.5 | W +9.5 | 165.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 23 | vs WVU | W 78-68 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 140.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 28 | vs AMCC | W 88-67 | -13.5 | W +7.5 | 146.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 1 | vs SFPA | W 96-74 | -27.5 | L −5.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 5 | vs CIN | W 79-74 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 147.5 | O 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMRST
MRSTW 66-62
−8.5
6
vsLEM
LEMW 74-69
−19.5
10
vsSCU
SCUL 68-87
−22.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAL 62-81
−3.5
18
vsODU
ODUW 99-69
+19.5
21
vsUGA
UGAL 77-78
+9.5
23
vsWVU
WVUW 78-68
+15.5
28
vsAMCC
AMCCW 88-67
+7.5
1
vsSFPA
SFPAW 96-74
−5.5
5
vsCIN
CINW 79-74
+6.5
covered 5didn’t cover 5avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMRST
MRSTW 66-62
−11.5
6
vsLEM
LEMW 74-69
−13.5
10
vsSCU
SCUL 68-87
−0.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAL 62-81
−0.5
18
vsODU
ODUW 99-69
+17.5
21
vsUGA
UGAL 77-78
−10.5
23
vsWVU
WVUW 78-68
+5.5
28
vsAMCC
AMCCW 88-67
+8.5
1
vsSFPA
SFPAW 96-74
+17.5
5
vsCIN
CINW 79-74
+5.5
over 5under 5avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Missouri St
1-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Tulsa74–98
- Lvs Long Island61–75
- Wvs UT Rio Grande74–67
- L@ UT Arlington49–67
- Lvs Arkansas St85–86
6 days since their last game.
Xavier
7-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Cincinnati79–74
- Wvs Saint Francis Red Wolves96–74
- Wvs Texas A&M-CC88–67
- Wvs West Virginia78–68
- Lvs Georgia77–78
A week or more of rest.