M&T Bank Center at Gampel Pavilion · at UConn · Conference game
Closing line
CONN -15.5✓ PROV covered by 9.5
CONN -15.5✓ PROV covered by 9.5Closing total152.5Over by 15.5
 PROV | This season | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| 9-11 | Record | 19-1 |
| 11-9 | ATS | 6-14 |
| 14-6 | O/U | 8-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: PROV 74–88 CONN · ✓ CONN (89%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROV | 37 | 44 | 81 |
| CONN | 41 | 46 | 87 |
1st half: PROV 37, CONN 41 (CONN by 4). The model had CONN by 8.1 and a total of 76.0 (actual 78).
Team stats
| PROV | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-54 48% | Field goals | 29-65 45% |
| 5-14 36% | 3-pointers | 11-24 46% |
| 24-31 77% | Free throws | 18-28 64% |
| 35 9 off | Rebounds | 37 15 off |
| 10 | Assists | 23 |
| 5 | Steals | 8 |
| 6 | Blocks | 9 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 24 | Fouls | 20 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 12 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| PROV | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefan Vaaks G | 35 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 4-14 | 1-6 |
| Jaylin Sellers G | 33 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 3-10 | 0-1 |
| Jamier Jones G | 33 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 7-11 | 2-3 |
| Oswin Erhunmwunse F | 25 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 7-9 | 0-0 |
| Corey Floyd Jr. G | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ryan Mela G | 26 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Nilavan Daniels G | 16 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Peteris Pinnis F | 10 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Duncan Powell F | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Jack Williams, Jason Edwards, Jaylen Harrell, Rich Barron, Cole Hargrove, Daquan Davis
| CONN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Karaban F | 38 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 3-14 | 2-5 |
| Solo Ball G | 34 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 5-18 | 2-10 |
| Silas Demary Jr. G | 33 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 3-6 | 3-5 |
| Tarris Reed Jr. C | 19 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 8-9 | 0-0 |
| Jaylin Stewart F | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Malachi Smith G | 30 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4-8 | 4-4 |
| Eric Reibe C | 21 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6-6 | 0-0 |
| Jayden Ross F | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Uros Paunovic, Jacob Furphy, Alec Millender, Rrezon Elezaj, Braylon Mullins, Jacob Ross, Dwayne Koroma
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCONN -15.5
no move
CloseCONN -15.5
No change since the open
Total
Open156.5
▼ 4
Close152.5
Down 4 since the open
Moneyline
PROV +1000 · CONN -1800
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CONN -15.5 · unchangedmodel CONN -14
model CONN -14
Opened 156.5 · closed 152.5 · moved 4 downmodel 162.5
model 162.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | CONN -15.5 | CONN -13.8 | PROV +1.7 | W PROV covered |
| Total | 152.5 | 162.4 | Over 9.9 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | PROV 74.3 · CONN 88.1 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | CONN -8.1 | CONN -4.0 |
| 1H total | 76.0 | 78 |
| 1H projected score | PROV 33.9 · CONN 42.1 | PROV 37 · CONN 41 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROV | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% |
| CONN | 10-0 100% | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
PROV 2–7 CONNCONN leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · CONN has won the last 7 meetings · PROV 5-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2025-26 | CONN 103 @ PROV 98 | PROV +9.5 | PROV W |
| Mar 1, 2024-25 | CONN 75 @ PROV 63 | PROV +6.5 | CONN W |
| Jan 5, 2024-25 | PROV 84 @ CONN 87 | CONN -14.5 | PROV W |
| Mar 9, 2023-24 | CONN 74 @ PROV 60 | PROV +8.5 | CONN W |
| Jan 31, 2023-24 | PROV 65 @ CONN 74 | CONN -13.5 | PROV W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Providence
20 games played
Straight up
9-11
45% wins
Against the spread
11-9
55% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-6
70% overs · avg +14.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs HC | W 89-79 | -23.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 8 | vs VT | L 101-107 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | O 208 |
| Nov 11 | vs PENN | W 106-81 | -19.5 | W +5.5 | 172.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 14 | @ COLO | L 88-97 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 163.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 18 | vs UNH | W 98-66 | -29.5 | W +2.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 22 | vs PSU | W 77-65 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 165.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 27 | vs WIS | L 83-104 | +6.5 | L −14.5 | 166.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 28 | vs FLA | L 78-90 | +12.5 | W +0.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Dec 2 | vs FDU | W 94-64 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 162.5 | U 158 |
| Dec 6 | vs URI | W 90-71 | -7.5 | W +11.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 9 | vs BRWN | W 86-79 | -19.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | @ BTLR | L 110-113 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 164.5 | O 223 |
| Dec 19 | vs HALL | L 67-72 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 3 | @ SJU | W 77-71 | +14.5 | W +20.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 7 | vsCONN | L 98-103 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 201 |
| Jan 10 | @ XAV | L 84-97 | -1.5 | L −14.5 | 165.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 13 | vs VILL | L 82-88 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 156.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 16 | vs CREI | W 93-88 | +2.5 | W +7.5 | 161.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 19 | @ MARQ | L 104-105 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 167.5 | O 209 |
| Jan 24 | vs GTWN | L 78-81 | -5.5 | L −8.5 | 159.5 | U 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsHC
HCW 89-79
−13.5
8
vsVT
VTL 101-107
−8.5
11
vsPENN
PENNW 106-81
+5.5
14
@COLO
COLOL 88-97
−7.5
18
vsUNH
UNHW 98-66
+2.5
22
vsPSU
PSUW 77-65
+8.5
27
vsWIS
WISL 83-104
−14.5
28
vsFLA
FLAL 78-90
+0.5
2
vsFDU
FDUW 94-64
+3.5
6
vsURI
URIW 90-71
+11.5
9
vsBRWN
BRWNW 86-79
−12.5
13
@BTLR
BTLRL 110-113
+0.5
19
vsHALL
HALLL 67-72
−6.5
3
@SJU
SJUW 77-71
+20.5
7
vsCONN
CONNL 98-103
+4.5
10
@XAV
XAVL 84-97
−14.5
13
vsVILL
VILLL 82-88
−3.5
16
vsCREI
CREIW 93-88
+7.5
19
@MARQ
MARQL 104-105
+1.5
24
vsGTWN
GTWNL 78-81
−8.5
covered 11didn’t cover 9avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsHC
HCW 89-79
+15.5
8
vsVT
VTL 101-107
+50.5
11
vsPENN
PENNW 106-81
+14.5
14
@COLO
COLOL 88-97
+21.5
18
vsUNH
UNHW 98-66
+2.5
22
vsPSU
PSUW 77-65
−23.5
27
vsWIS
WISL 83-104
+20.5
28
vsFLA
FLAL 78-90
−1.5
2
vsFDU
FDUW 94-64
−4.5
6
vsURI
URIW 90-71
+1.5
9
vsBRWN
BRWNW 86-79
+19.5
13
@BTLR
BTLRL 110-113
+58.5
19
vsHALL
HALLL 67-72
−13.5
3
@SJU
SJUW 77-71
−18.5
7
vsCONN
CONNL 98-103
+48.5
10
@XAV
XAVL 84-97
+15.5
13
vsVILL
VILLL 82-88
+13.5
16
vsCREI
CREIW 93-88
+19.5
19
@MARQ
MARQL 104-105
+41.5
24
vsGTWN
GTWNL 78-81
−0.5
over 14under 6avg +14.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
UConn
20 games played
Straight up
19-1
95% wins
Against the spread
6-14
30% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-12
40% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NHVN | W 79-55 | -42.5 | L −18.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 7 | vs UML | W 110-47 | -36.5 | W +26.5 | 151.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 10 | vs COLU | W 89-62 | -32.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs BYU | W 86-84 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 156.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 19 | vs ARIZ | L 67-71 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 23 | vs BRY | W 72-49 | -36.5 | L −13.5 | 147.5 | U 121 |
| Nov 28 | vs ILL | W 74-61 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 2 | @ KU | W 61-56 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 141.5 | U 117 |
| Dec 5 | vs ETAM | W 83-59 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 9 | vsFLA | W 77-73 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 12 | vs TEX | W 71-63 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 16 | vsBTLR | W 79-60 | -15.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 21 | @ DEP | W 72-54 | -12.5 | W +5.5 | 133.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 31 | @XAV | W 90-67 | -11.5 | W +11.5 | 144.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 4 | vsMARQ | W 73-57 | -17.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 7 | @PROV | W 103-98 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 152.5 | O 201 |
| Jan 10 | vsDEP | W 72-60 | -19.5 | L −7.5 | 137.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 13 | @HALL | W 69-64 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 132.5 | O 133 |
| Jan 17 | @GTWN | W 64-62 | -11.5 | L −9.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 24 | vsVILL | W 75-67 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−18.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+26.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−5.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
−4.5
19
vsARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−8.5
23
vsBRY
BRYW 72-49
−13.5
28
vsILL
ILLW 74-61
+8.5
2
@KU
KUW 61-56
+1.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-59
−12.5
9
vsFLA
FLAW 77-73
−0.5
12
vsTEX
TEXW 71-63
−3.5
16
vsBTLR
BTLRW 79-60
+3.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 72-54
+5.5
31
@XAV
XAVW 90-67
+11.5
4
vsMARQ
MARQW 73-57
−1.5
7
@PROV
PROVW 103-98
−4.5
10
vsDEP
DEPW 72-60
−7.5
13
@HALL
HALLW 69-64
−1.5
17
@GTWN
GTWNW 64-62
−9.5
24
vsVILL
VILLW 75-67
−3.5
covered 6didn’t cover 14avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−11.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+5.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−4.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
+13.5
19
vsARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−18.5
23
vsBRY
BRYW 72-49
−26.5
28
vsILL
ILLW 74-61
−15.5
2
@KU
KUW 61-56
−24.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-59
+0.5
9
vsFLA
FLAW 77-73
+4.5
12
vsTEX
TEXW 71-63
−11.5
16
vsBTLR
BTLRW 79-60
−5.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 72-54
−7.5
31
@XAV
XAVW 90-67
+12.5
4
vsMARQ
MARQW 73-57
−14.5
7
@PROV
PROVW 103-98
+48.5
10
vsDEP
DEPW 72-60
−5.5
13
@HALL
HALLW 69-64
+0.5
17
@GTWN
GTWNW 64-62
−15.5
24
vsVILL
VILLW 75-67
+4.5
over 8under 12avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Providence
9-11 overall · 2-7 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Georgetown78–81
- L@ Marquette104–105
- Wvs Creighton93–88
- Lvs Villanova82–88
- L@ Xavier84–97
3 days since their last game.
UConn
19-1 overall · 9-0 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Villanova75–67
- W@ Georgetown64–62
- W@ Seton Hall69–64
- Wvs DePaul72–60
- W@ Providence103–98
3 days since their last game.