Cintas Center · at Xavier · Conference game
Closing line
CONN -11.5✓ CONN covered by 11.5
CONN -11.5✓ CONN covered by 11.5Closing total144.5Over by 12.5
| CONN | This season | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| 12-1 | Record | 9-4 |
| 5-8 | ATS | 6-7 |
| 4-9 | O/U | 7-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CONN 79–66 XAV · ✓ CONN (87%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CONN | 43 | 47 | 90 |
| XAV | 28 | 39 | 67 |
1st half: CONN 43, XAV 28 (CONN by 15). The model had CONN by 8.0 and a total of 68.3 (actual 71).
Team stats
| CONN | XAV | |
|---|---|---|
| 33-62 53% | Field goals | 24-56 43% |
| 13-28 46% | 3-pointers | 4-18 22% |
| 11-14 79% | Free throws | 15-22 68% |
| 42 10 off | Rebounds | 26 5 off |
| 26 | Assists | 18 |
| 8 | Steals | 8 |
| 3 | Blocks | 5 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 19 | Fouls | 16 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| CONN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Karaban F | 34 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 7-13 | 3-5 |
| Braylon Mullins G | 31 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 6-11 | 5-10 |
| Solo Ball G | 29 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 6-10 | 2-6 |
| Tarris Reed Jr. C | 21 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Silas Demary Jr. G | 18 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Malachi Smith G | 22 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2-7 | 1-4 |
| Jaylin Stewart F | 18 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Eric Reibe C | 17 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Jacob Furphy G | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Alec Millender G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Dwayne Koroma F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Uros Paunovic G | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Rrezon Elezaj, Jacob Ross, Jayden Ross
| XAV | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Messina-Moore G | 36 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 5-10 | 2-6 |
| Filip Borovicanin F | 34 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 5-11 | 1-5 |
| Tre Carroll F | 31 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3-11 | 0-1 |
| Jovan Milicevic F | 20 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| All Wright G | 19 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Roddie Anderson G | 29 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 6-12 | 0-1 |
| Isaiah Walker G | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Pape N'Diaye F | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Anthony Robinson F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Mier Panoam G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kason Westphal, Gabriel Pozzato, Luke Naser, Henry Thole, Ian Sabourin, Michael Wolf
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCONN -12.5
1 → XAV
CloseCONN -11.5
1 pt toward XAV
Total
Open145.5
▼ 1
Close144.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
CONN -800 · XAV +550
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CONN -12.5 · closed CONN -11.5 · moved 1 toward XAVmodel CONN -13
model CONN -13
Opened 145.5 · closed 144.5 · moved 1 downmodel 145.5
model 145.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | CONN -11.5 | CONN -13.2 | CONN +1.7 | W CONN covered |
| Total | 144.5 | 145.7 | Over 1.2 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | CONN 79.4 · XAV 66.3 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | CONN -8.0 | CONN -15.0 |
| 1H total | 68.3 | 71 |
| 1H projected score | CONN 38.1 · XAV 30.1 | CONN 43 · XAV 28 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CONN | 9-1 90% | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% |
| XAV | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
CONN 5–4 XAVCONN leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · CONN 4-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2024-25 | CONN 72 @ XAV 76 | XAV -1.5 | XAV W |
| Dec 18, 2024-25 | XAV 89 @ CONN 94 | CONN -13.5 | XAV W |
| Mar 14, 2023-24 | XAV 60 vs CONN 87 | CONN -15.5 | CONN W |
| Jan 28, 2023-24 | XAV 56 @ CONN 99 | CONN -11.5 | CONN W |
| Jan 10, 2023-24 | CONN 80 @ XAV 75 | XAV +4.5 | CONN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UConn
13 games played
Straight up
12-1
92% wins
Against the spread
5-8
38% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-9
31% overs · avg −7.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NHVN | W 79-55 | -42.5 | L −18.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 7 | vs UML | W 110-47 | -36.5 | W +26.5 | 151.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 10 | vs COLU | W 89-62 | -32.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs BYU | W 86-84 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 156.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 19 | vs ARIZ | L 67-71 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 23 | vs BRY | W 72-49 | -36.5 | L −13.5 | 147.5 | U 121 |
| Nov 28 | vs ILL | W 74-61 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 2 | @ KU | W 61-56 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 141.5 | U 117 |
| Dec 5 | vs ETAM | W 83-59 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 9 | vs FLA | W 77-73 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 12 | vs TEX | W 71-63 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 16 | vs BTLR | W 79-60 | -15.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 21 | @ DEP | W 72-54 | -12.5 | W +5.5 | 133.5 | U 126 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−18.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+26.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−5.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
−4.5
19
vsARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−8.5
23
vsBRY
BRYW 72-49
−13.5
28
vsILL
ILLW 74-61
+8.5
2
@KU
KUW 61-56
+1.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-59
−12.5
9
vsFLA
FLAW 77-73
−0.5
12
vsTEX
TEXW 71-63
−3.5
16
vsBTLR
BTLRW 79-60
+3.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 72-54
+5.5
covered 5didn’t cover 8avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−11.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+5.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−4.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
+13.5
19
vsARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−18.5
23
vsBRY
BRYW 72-49
−26.5
28
vsILL
ILLW 74-61
−15.5
2
@KU
KUW 61-56
−24.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-59
+0.5
9
vsFLA
FLAW 77-73
+4.5
12
vsTEX
TEXW 71-63
−11.5
16
vsBTLR
BTLRW 79-60
−5.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 72-54
−7.5
over 4under 9avg −7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Xavier
13 games played
Straight up
9-4
69% wins
Against the spread
6-7
46% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-6
54% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MRST | W 66-62 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 139.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 6 | vs LEM | W 74-69 | -24.5 | L −19.5 | 156.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 10 | vs SCU | L 68-87 | -3.5 | L −22.5 | 155.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 14 | @ IOWA | L 62-81 | +15.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 18 | vs ODU | W 99-69 | -10.5 | W +19.5 | 150.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 21 | vs UGA | L 77-78 | +10.5 | W +9.5 | 165.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 23 | vs WVU | W 78-68 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 140.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 28 | vs AMCC | W 88-67 | -13.5 | W +7.5 | 146.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 1 | vs SFPA | W 96-74 | -27.5 | L −5.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 5 | vs CIN | W 79-74 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 147.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 12 | vs MOST | W 75-57 | -18.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 17 | vs CREI | L 57-98 | -2.5 | L −43.5 | 151.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 20 | @ GTWN | W 80-77 | +4.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | O 157 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMRST
MRSTW 66-62
−8.5
6
vsLEM
LEMW 74-69
−19.5
10
vsSCU
SCUL 68-87
−22.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAL 62-81
−3.5
18
vsODU
ODUW 99-69
+19.5
21
vsUGA
UGAL 77-78
+9.5
23
vsWVU
WVUW 78-68
+15.5
28
vsAMCC
AMCCW 88-67
+7.5
1
vsSFPA
SFPAW 96-74
−5.5
5
vsCIN
CINW 79-74
+6.5
12
vsMOST
MOSTW 75-57
−0.5
17
vsCREI
CREIL 57-98
−43.5
20
@GTWN
GTWNW 80-77
+7.5
covered 6didn’t cover 7avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMRST
MRSTW 66-62
−11.5
6
vsLEM
LEMW 74-69
−13.5
10
vsSCU
SCUL 68-87
−0.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAL 62-81
−0.5
18
vsODU
ODUW 99-69
+17.5
21
vsUGA
UGAL 77-78
−10.5
23
vsWVU
WVUW 78-68
+5.5
28
vsAMCC
AMCCW 88-67
+8.5
1
vsSFPA
SFPAW 96-74
+17.5
5
vsCIN
CINW 79-74
+5.5
12
vsMOST
MOSTW 75-57
−19.5
17
vsCREI
CREIL 57-98
+3.5
20
@GTWN
GTWNW 80-77
+7.5
over 7under 6avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UConn
12-1 overall · 2-0 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ DePaul72–54
- Wvs Butler79–60
- Wvs Texas71–63
- Wvs Florida77–73
- Wvs East Texas A&M83–59
A week or more of rest.
Xavier
9-4 overall · 1-1 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Georgetown80–77
- Lvs Creighton57–98
- Wvs Missouri St75–57
- Wvs Cincinnati79–74
- Wvs Saint Francis Red Wolves96–74
A week or more of rest.