Hinkle Fieldhouse · at Butler · Conference game
Closing line
BTLR -3.5✓ PROV covered by 0.5
BTLR -3.5✓ PROV covered by 0.5Closing total164.5Over by 58.5
 PROV | This season | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| 7-4 | Record | 7-2 |
| 6-5 | ATS | 7-2 |
| 8-3 | O/U | 4-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: PROV 83–87 BTLR · ✓ BTLR (65%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | 2OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PROV | 45 | 44 | 11 | 10 | 110 |
| BTLR | 41 | 48 | 11 | 13 | 113 |
1st half: PROV 45, BTLR 41 (PROV by 4). The model had BTLR by 2.4 and a total of 79.2 (actual 86).
Team stats
| PROV | BTLR | |
|---|---|---|
| 41-86 48% | Field goals | 38-81 47% |
| 14-37 38% | 3-pointers | 10-28 36% |
| 14-18 78% | Free throws | 27-38 71% |
| 45 17 off | Rebounds | 50 21 off |
| 21 | Assists | 23 |
| 5 | Steals | 6 |
| 6 | Blocks | 5 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 25 | Fouls | 13 |
| 52 | Points in paint | 56 |
| 15 | Fast-break points | 15 |
Players
| PROV | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylin Sellers G | 44 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 8-21 | 4-6 |
| Stefan Vaaks G | 36 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 4-16 | 1-10 |
| Oswin Erhunmwunse F | 35 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Corey Floyd Jr. G | 25 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 4-7 | 1-2 |
| Ryan Mela G | 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jason Edwards G | 33 | 32 | 2 | 6 | 12-22 | 6-13 |
| Jamier Jones G | 29 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5-6 | 1-1 |
| Duncan Powell F | 20 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 4-7 | 1-4 |
| Cole Hargrove F | 15 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Peteris Pinnis, Jack Williams, Nilavan Daniels, Daquan Davis, Jaylen Harrell, Rich Barron
| BTLR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Ajayi F | 45 | 28 | 15 | 2 | 8-18 | 1-4 |
| Finley Bizjack G | 44 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 8-21 | 2-10 |
| Jamie Kaiser Jr. F | 37 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 6-9 | 2-4 |
| Drayton Jones C | 33 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Azavier Robinson G | 19 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4-7 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Evan Haywood G | 35 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 7-13 | 4-8 |
| Yohan Traore F | 17 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor G | 15 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Yame Butler G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kevin Ndzie, Bryson Cardinal, Jack McCaffery, Ethan McComb, Jackson Keith, Jalen Jackson
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketBTLR -3.5
ModelBTLR -4.3
Model edgeBTLR +0.8
L PROV covered
Total
Market164.5
Model169.4
Model edgeOver 4.9
W Over
Projected score
PROV 82.5 · BTLR 86.8
PROV 110 · BTLR 113
Win probability
BTLR 65%
1st half
Spread
BTLR -2.4
PROV -4.0
Total
79.2
86 points
Projected score
PROV 38.4 · BTLR 40.8
PROV 45 · BTLR 41
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBTLR -6.5
3 → PROV
CloseBTLR -3.5
3 pts toward PROV
Total
Open169.5
▼ 5
Close164.5
Down 5 since the open
Moneyline
PROV +154 · BTLR -185
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BTLR -6.5 · closed BTLR -3.5 · moved 3 toward PROVmodel BTLR -4.5
model BTLR -4.5
Opened 169.5 · closed 164.5 · moved 5 downmodel 169.5
model 169.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROV | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% |
| BTLRlast 9 | 7-2 78% | 7-2 78% | 4-5 44% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
PROV 7–3 BTLRPROV leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · BTLR has won the last 2 meetings · PROV 6-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2024-25 | BTLR 75 vs PROV 69 | PROV +1.5 | BTLR W |
| Feb 8, 2024-25 | PROV 81 @ BTLR 82 | BTLR -4.5 | PROV W |
| Jan 8, 2024-25 | BTLR 65 @ PROV 84 | PROV -2.5 | PROV W |
| Feb 10, 2023-24 | PROV 72 @ BTLR 75 | BTLR -5.5 | PROV W |
| Dec 23, 2023-24 | BTLR 75 @ PROV 85 | PROV -5.5 | PROV W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Providence
11 games played
Straight up
7-4
64% wins
Against the spread
6-5
55% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-3
73% overs · avg +10.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs HC | W 89-79 | -23.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 8 | vs VT | L 101-107 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | O 208 |
| Nov 11 | vs PENN | W 106-81 | -19.5 | W +5.5 | 172.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 14 | @ COLO | L 88-97 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 163.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 18 | vs UNH | W 98-66 | -29.5 | W +2.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 22 | vs PSU | W 77-65 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 165.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 27 | vs WIS | L 83-104 | +6.5 | L −14.5 | 166.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 28 | vs FLA | L 78-90 | +12.5 | W +0.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Dec 2 | vs FDU | W 94-64 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 162.5 | U 158 |
| Dec 6 | vs URI | W 90-71 | -7.5 | W +11.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 9 | vs BRWN | W 86-79 | -19.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | O 165 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsHC
HCW 89-79
−13.5
8
vsVT
VTL 101-107
−8.5
11
vsPENN
PENNW 106-81
+5.5
14
@COLO
COLOL 88-97
−7.5
18
vsUNH
UNHW 98-66
+2.5
22
vsPSU
PSUW 77-65
+8.5
27
vsWIS
WISL 83-104
−14.5
28
vsFLA
FLAL 78-90
+0.5
2
vsFDU
FDUW 94-64
+3.5
6
vsURI
URIW 90-71
+11.5
9
vsBRWN
BRWNW 86-79
−12.5
covered 6didn’t cover 5avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsHC
HCW 89-79
+15.5
8
vsVT
VTL 101-107
+50.5
11
vsPENN
PENNW 106-81
+14.5
14
@COLO
COLOL 88-97
+21.5
18
vsUNH
UNHW 98-66
+2.5
22
vsPSU
PSUW 77-65
−23.5
27
vsWIS
WISL 83-104
+20.5
28
vsFLA
FLAL 78-90
−1.5
2
vsFDU
FDUW 94-64
−4.5
6
vsURI
URIW 90-71
+1.5
9
vsBRWN
BRWNW 86-79
+19.5
over 8under 3avg +10.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Butler
9 games played
Straight up
7-2
78% wins
Against the spread
7-2
78% covers · avg +4.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-5
44% overs · avg +0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs USI | W 88-58 | -22.5 | W +7.5 | 156.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 8 | vs IUIN | W 112-80 | -20.5 | W +11.5 | 192.5 | U 192 |
| Nov 11 | vs CHST | W 98-66 | -26.5 | W +5.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 15 | @ SMU | L 85-87 | +7.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 21 | vs SC | W 79-72 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 150.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 23 | vs UVA | W 80-73 | +6.5 | W +13.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 28 | vs WRST | W 94-69 | -14.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 2 | vs EMU | W 84-68 | -17.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 6 | vs BOIS | L 68-77 | -2.5 | L −11.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsUSI
USIW 88-58
+7.5
8
vsIUIN
IUINW 112-80
+11.5
11
vsCHST
CHSTW 98-66
+5.5
15
@SMU
SMUL 85-87
+5.5
21
vsSC
SCW 79-72
+3.5
23
vsUVA
UVAW 80-73
+13.5
28
vsWRST
WRSTW 94-69
+10.5
2
vsEMU
EMUW 84-68
−1.5
6
vsBOIS
BOISL 68-77
−11.5
covered 7didn’t cover 2avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUSI
USIW 88-58
−10.5
8
vsIUIN
IUINW 112-80
−0.5
11
vsCHST
CHSTW 98-66
+5.5
15
@SMU
SMUL 85-87
+8.5
21
vsSC
SCW 79-72
+0.5
23
vsUVA
UVAW 80-73
−2.5
28
vsWRST
WRSTW 94-69
+12.5
2
vsEMU
EMUW 84-68
−1.5
6
vsBOIS
BOISL 68-77
−3.5
over 4under 5avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Providence
7-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Brown86–79
- Wvs Rhode Island90–71
- Wvs FDU94–64
- Lvs Florida78–90
- Lvs Wisconsin83–104
4 days since their last game.
Butler
7-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Boise St68–77
- Wvs E Michigan84–68
- Wvs Wright St94–69
- Wvs Virginia80–73
- Wvs South Carolina79–72
A week or more of rest.