Welsh-Ryan Arena · at Northwestern
Closing line
NU -14.5✓ NU covered by 1.5
NU -14.5✓ NU covered by 1.5Closing total145.5Over by 10.5
 VAL | This season | NU |
|---|---|---|
| 5-4 | Record | 6-4 |
| 6-3 | ATS | 3-7 |
| 4-5 | O/U | 7-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: VAL 65–82 NU · ✓ NU (93%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VAL | 30 | 40 | 70 |
| NU | 39 | 47 | 86 |
1st half: VAL 30, NU 39 (NU by 9). The model had NU by 10.2 and a total of 68.7 (actual 69).
Team stats
| VAL | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-54 44% | Field goals | 33-61 54% |
| 6-19 32% | 3-pointers | 5-21 24% |
| 16-22 73% | Free throws | 15-22 68% |
| 31 10 off | Rebounds | 33 11 off |
| 12 | Assists | 17 |
| 6 | Steals | 6 |
| 2 | Blocks | 4 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 50 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 11 |
Players
| VAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rakim Chaney G | 30 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2-6 | 2-5 |
| JT Pettigrew F | 28 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 3-8 | 0-1 |
| Brody Whitaker G | 26 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 5-10 | 1-4 |
| Shon Tupuola F | 25 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Isaiah Barnes G | 22 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Justus McNair G | 19 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-1 |
| Carter Hopoi F | 18 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Owen Dease F | 16 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Mark Brown Jr. G | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Tucker Tornatta F | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Kyonte Thomas G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Sader Servilus, Kobe Walker, Camden Webster, Joe Vick, Nick Lombardi, Jayden Watson
| NU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arrinten Page F | 33 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 7-12 | 1-3 |
| Jayden Reid G | 31 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 4-10 | 0-4 |
| Nick Martinelli F | 30 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 12-19 | 1-4 |
| Jordan Clayton G | 26 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Angelo Ciaravino G | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Justin Mullins G | 27 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Tre Singleton F | 20 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 4-6 | 0-2 |
| Max Green G | 14 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Jake West G | 9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Phoenix Gill, K.J. Windham, Blake Smith, Gus Hurlburt, Cade Bennerman, Tyler Kropp
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNU -15.5
1 → VAL
CloseNU -14.5
1 pt toward VAL
Total
Open143.5
▲ 2
Close145.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
VAL +850 · NU -1450
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NU -15.5 · closed NU -14.5 · moved 1 toward VALmodel NU -17
model NU -17
Opened 143.5 · closed 145.5 · moved 2 upmodel 147
model 147
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | NU -14.5 | NU -17.1 | NU +2.6 | W NU covered |
| Total | 145.5 | 146.8 | Over 1.3 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | VAL 64.8 · NU 82 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | NU -10.2 | NU -9.0 |
| 1H total | 68.7 | 69 |
| 1H projected score | VAL 29.3 · NU 39.5 | VAL 30 · NU 39 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VALlast 9 | 5-4 56% | 6-3 67% | 4-5 44% |
| NU | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% | 7-3 70% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Valparaiso
9 games played
Straight up
5-4
56% wins
Against the spread
6-3
67% covers · avg +4.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-5
44% overs · avg −7.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs EIU | W 66-63 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 7 | @ UK | L 59-107 | +32.5 | L −15.5 | 157.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 12 | vs NICH | W 68-63 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 16 | vs BRY | W 68-50 | -6.5 | W +11.5 | 143.5 | U 118 |
| Nov 19 | @ CLE | W 90-75 | +2.5 | W +17.5 | 158.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 26 | vs USI | L 56-64 | -9.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 29 | vs WMU | W 84-55 | -4.5 | W +24.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 2 | @ MARQ | L 72-75 | +17.5 | W +14.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 13 | vs UNCW | L 70-73 | +4.5 | W +1.5 | 136.5 | O 143 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsEIU
EIUW 66-63
−2.5
7
@UK
UKL 59-107
−15.5
12
vsNICH
NICHW 68-63
+2.5
16
vsBRY
BRYW 68-50
+11.5
19
@CLE
CLEW 90-75
+17.5
26
vsUSI
USIL 56-64
−17.5
29
vsWMU
WMUW 84-55
+24.5
2
@MARQ
MARQL 72-75
+14.5
13
vsUNCW
UNCWL 70-73
+1.5
covered 6didn’t cover 3avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsEIU
EIUW 66-63
−15.5
7
@UK
UKL 59-107
+8.5
12
vsNICH
NICHW 68-63
−13.5
16
vsBRY
BRYW 68-50
−25.5
19
@CLE
CLEW 90-75
+6.5
26
vsUSI
USIL 56-64
−30.5
29
vsWMU
WMUW 84-55
−7.5
2
@MARQ
MARQL 72-75
+0.5
13
vsUNCW
UNCWL 70-73
+6.5
over 4under 5avg −7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Northwestern
10 games played
Straight up
6-4
60% wins
Against the spread
3-7
30% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-3
70% overs · avg +4.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MERC | W 70-47 | -26.5 | L −3.5 | 140.5 | U 117 |
| Nov 7 | vs BU | W 76-52 | -17.5 | W +6.5 | 136.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 10 | vsCLE | W 110-63 | -23.5 | W +23.5 | 151.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 14 | @ DEP | W 81-79 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs UVA | L 78-83 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs SC | W 79-77 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 27 | vs OKST | L 81-86 | -2.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 3 | @ WIS | L 73-85 | +10.5 | L −1.5 | 155.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 6 | vs OSU | L 82-86 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 155.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vs JKST | W 93-53 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMERC
MERCW 70-47
−3.5
7
vsBU
BUW 76-52
+6.5
10
vsCLE
CLEW 110-63
+23.5
14
@DEP
DEPW 81-79
−3.5
21
vsUVA
UVAL 78-83
−0.5
23
vsSC
SCW 79-77
−2.5
27
vsOKST
OKSTL 81-86
−7.5
3
@WIS
WISL 73-85
−1.5
6
vsOSU
OSUL 82-86
−2.5
13
vsJKST
JKSTW 93-53
+9.5
covered 3didn’t cover 7avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMERC
MERCW 70-47
−23.5
7
vsBU
BUW 76-52
−8.5
10
vsCLE
CLEW 110-63
+21.5
14
@DEP
DEPW 81-79
+14.5
21
vsUVA
UVAL 78-83
+11.5
23
vsSC
SCW 79-77
+9.5
27
vsOKST
OKSTL 81-86
+7.5
3
@WIS
WISL 73-85
+2.5
6
vsOSU
OSUL 82-86
+12.5
13
vsJKST
JKSTW 93-53
−0.5
over 7under 3avg +4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Valparaiso
5-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs UNC Wilmington70–73
- L@ Marquette72–75
- Wvs W Michigan84–55
- Lvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles56–64
- W@ Cleveland St90–75
3 days since their last game.
Northwestern
6-4 overall · 0-2 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Jackson St93–53
- Lvs Ohio State82–86
- L@ Wisconsin73–85
- Lvs Oklahoma St81–86
- Wvs South Carolina79–77
3 days since their last game.