Broadview Arena · at Buffalo · Conference game
Closing line
AKR -8.5✓ AKR covered by 10.5
AKR -8.5✓ AKR covered by 10.5Closing total166.5Under by 21.5
| AKR | This season | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 12-4 | Record | 11-5 |
| 9-7 | ATS | 11-5 |
| 10-6 | O/U | 10-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: AKR 90–81 BUF · ✓ AKR (77%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AKR | 43 | 39 | 82 |
| BUF | 27 | 36 | 63 |
1st half: AKR 43, BUF 27 (AKR by 16). The model had AKR by 5.2 and a total of 79.9 (actual 70).
Team stats
| AKR | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-58 47% | Field goals | 23-65 35% |
| 14-35 40% | 3-pointers | 8-32 25% |
| 14-19 74% | Free throws | 9-13 69% |
| 40 10 off | Rebounds | 39 14 off |
| 21 | Assists | 15 |
| 8 | Steals | 6 |
| 2 | Blocks | 5 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 27 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| AKR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavari Johnson G | 29 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 3-7 | 3-7 |
| Amani Lyles F | 26 | 18 | 15 | 4 | 6-12 | 4-9 |
| Evan Mahaffey F | 25 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 5-11 | 1-3 |
| Bowen Hardman G | 23 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
| Zach Halligan F | 18 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2-5 | 2-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Shammah Scott G | 27 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-3 |
| Eric Mahaffey G | 25 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Sharron Young G | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Marvin Musiime-Kamali F | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Ognjen Stankovic F | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tai Perkins, Rich Brisco, Josh Henderson, Conner Groce, Cody Head, Chabi Barre
| BUF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Talton Jr. G | 40 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 2-11 | 0-5 |
| Ryan Sabol G | 38 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 9-21 | 5-12 |
| Angelo Brizzi G | 35 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 3-12 | 1-8 |
| Noah Batchelor G | 25 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Tim Oboh F | 19 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ezra McKenna F | 18 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3-7 | 0-2 |
| Mikhali Pocknett F | 17 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Kyle Jones G | 8 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Evan Romano, Aleksa Vlajic, Matas Buteliauskas, Daniel Shao, Omar Migues-Hibeljic, Daniel Freitag
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenAKR -7.5
1 → AKR
CloseAKR -8.5
1 pt toward AKR
Total
Open169.5
▼ 3
Close166.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
AKR -410 · BUF +320
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened AKR -7.5 · closed AKR -8.5 · moved 1 toward AKRmodel AKR -8.5 matches the line
model AKR -8.5 = line ✓
Opened 169.5 · closed 166.5 · moved 3 downmodel 170.5
model 170.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | AKR -8.5 | AKR -8.5 | — | AKR covered |
| Total | 166.5 | 170.6 | Over 4.1 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | AKR 89.6 · BUF 81.1 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | AKR -5.2 | AKR -16.0 |
| 1H total | 79.9 | 70 |
| 1H projected score | AKR 42.5 · BUF 37.3 | AKR 43 · BUF 27 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AKR | 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
| BUF | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
AKR 9–0 BUFAKR leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · AKR has won the last 9 meetings · AKR 7-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2024-25 | BUF 70 @ AKR 88 | AKR -18.5 | BUF W |
| Jan 21, 2024-25 | AKR 90 @ BUF 58 | BUF +12.5 | AKR W |
| Feb 17, 2023-24 | AKR 73 @ BUF 62 | BUF +14.5 | BUF W |
| Jan 12, 2023-24 | BUF 59 @ AKR 76 | AKR -16.5 | AKR W |
| Mar 9, 2022-23 | BUF 77 vs AKR 101 | AKR -7.5 | AKR W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Akron
16 games played
Straight up
12-4
75% wins
Against the spread
9-7
56% covers · avg +2.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-6
63% overs · avg +8.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JMU | W 85-71 | -8.5 | W +5.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 8 | vs PRIN | W 104-69 | -13.5 | W +21.5 | 156.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 16 | @ PUR | L 79-97 | +18.5 | W +0.5 | 163.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 21 | vs IONA | W 96-75 | -11.5 | W +9.5 | 173.5 | U 171 |
| Nov 23 | vs EVAN | W 97-59 | -11.5 | W +26.5 | 156.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs YALE | L 94-97 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 156.5 | O 191 |
| Nov 29 | vs MILW | W 105-81 | -12.5 | W +11.5 | 166.5 | O 186 |
| Dec 3 | vs BUCK | W 97-77 | -23.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | O 174 |
| Dec 6 | @ TULN | W 88-71 | -6.5 | W +10.5 | 162.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 13 | vs MUR | L 100-115 | -4.5 | L −19.5 | 168.5 | O 215 |
| Dec 19 | vs EMU | W 93-72 | -15.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 3 | @ M-OH | L 73-76 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 177.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 6 | vs CMU | W 82-69 | -23.5 | L −10.5 | 164.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 9 | @ BGSU | W 77-67 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 13 | vs BALL | W 87-77 | -20.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 17 | vs WMU | W 104-89 | -21.5 | L −6.5 | 163.5 | O 193 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJMU
JMUW 85-71
+5.5
8
vsPRIN
PRINW 104-69
+21.5
16
@PUR
PURL 79-97
+0.5
21
vsIONA
IONAW 96-75
+9.5
23
vsEVAN
EVANW 97-59
+26.5
24
vsYALE
YALEL 94-97
−4.5
29
vsMILW
MILWW 105-81
+11.5
3
vsBUCK
BUCKW 97-77
−3.5
6
@TULN
TULNW 88-71
+10.5
13
vsMUR
MURL 100-115
−19.5
19
vsEMU
EMUW 93-72
+5.5
3
@M-OH
M-OHL 73-76
−7.5
6
vsCMU
CMUW 82-69
−10.5
9
@BGSU
BGSUW 77-67
+5.5
13
vsBALL
BALLW 87-77
−10.5
17
vsWMU
WMUW 104-89
−6.5
covered 9didn’t cover 7avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJMU
JMUW 85-71
+2.5
8
vsPRIN
PRINW 104-69
+16.5
16
@PUR
PURL 79-97
+12.5
21
vsIONA
IONAW 96-75
−2.5
23
vsEVAN
EVANW 97-59
−0.5
24
vsYALE
YALEL 94-97
+34.5
29
vsMILW
MILWW 105-81
+19.5
3
vsBUCK
BUCKW 97-77
+16.5
6
@TULN
TULNW 88-71
−3.5
13
vsMUR
MURL 100-115
+46.5
19
vsEMU
EMUW 93-72
+9.5
3
@M-OH
M-OHL 73-76
−28.5
6
vsCMU
CMUW 82-69
−13.5
9
@BGSU
BGSUW 77-67
−19.5
13
vsBALL
BALLW 87-77
+11.5
17
vsWMU
WMUW 104-89
+29.5
over 10under 6avg +8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Buffalo
16 games played
Straight up
11-5
69% wins
Against the spread
11-5
69% covers · avg +4.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-6
63% overs · avg +6.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USM | W 85-79 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 7 | vs GB | W 83-76 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ DEP | W 66-53 | +18.5 | W +31.5 | 153.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 18 | vs UVM | W 94-90 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 141.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 24 | vs VMI | W 78-70 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 26 | vsBUCK | W 73-71 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 29 | @ CAN | W 71-53 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 139.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 6 | vs SBU | L 69-77 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 9 | @ UMBC | W 83-79 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 14 | @ ECU | L 70-73 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 20 | @WMU | W 88-71 | -2.5 | W +14.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 31 | @ NIU | W 81-67 | -6.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 3 | vsBALL | W 85-72 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 10 | @ OHIO | L 80-91 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 13 | vs KENT | L 81-87 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 165.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 17 | @M-OH | L 102-105 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | O 207 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+2.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+3.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
+31.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+5.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
+2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
+8.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
−2.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+0.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−1.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+14.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
+7.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+6.5
10
@OHIO
OHIOL 80-91
−6.5
13
vsKENT
KENTL 81-87
−3.5
17
@M-OH
M-OHL 102-105
+7.5
covered 11didn’t cover 5avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+10.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+11.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
−34.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+42.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
−2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
−15.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
+1.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+16.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−3.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+8.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
−4.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+11.5
10
@OHIO
OHIOL 80-91
+14.5
13
vsKENT
KENTL 81-87
+2.5
17
@M-OH
M-OHL 102-105
+44.5
over 10under 6avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Akron
12-4 overall · 5-1 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs W Michigan104–89
- Wvs Ball State87–77
- W@ Bowling Green77–67
- Wvs C Michigan82–69
- L@ Miami OH73–76
3 days since their last game.
Buffalo
11-5 overall · 3-3 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Miami OH102–105
- Lvs Kent State81–87
- L@ Ohio80–91
- Wvs Ball State85–72
- W@ N Illinois81–67
3 days since their last game.